Back-to-office trend fades, worsening potential ‘doom loop’ for big downtowns like Chicago’s – Wirepoints

By: Mark Glennon*

Reversal of the work-from-home trend arguably provides the best hope for breaking what’s now often called the “doom loop” for downtown areas like Chicago’s.

Unfortunately, the numbers aren’t cooperating.

Actual occupancy plummeted when the pandemic started then gradually began to recover in spring of 2020. But that recovery stalled around the first of this year. Office usage has flatlined since then at about 50% of pre-pandemic levels in Chicago. Same for other big cities on average.

The chart here shows that trend. It’s from Kastle Systems, a leading provider of security systems, which compiles the data weekly, showing true occupancy as a percentage of pre-pandemic true occupancy. It’s the most commonly used measure of actual office utilization today, using security swipe cards for entry and exit.

“Doom loop” is now the popular term in commercial property circles to describe what many experts fear ensues. It means the downward spiral created as big office buildings lose assessed value and pay less property tax thereby reducing the quality of government services and pushing the tax load to homeowners or other taxpayers.

As the publication Curbed describe it, “Workers don’t return, offices remain empty, restaurants shutter, transit agencies go bankrupt, tax bases plummet, public services disappear.” That’s obviously disastrous for all city residents, not just commercial property owners, as explained here last month with help for Prof. Joseph Pagliari at the University of Chicago.

The “doom loop” term got popularized in this context after its use in a study written last fall by business professors called “Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse,”  about the dire consequences of remote work for big cities.

San Francisco provides the most frightening warning. What was America’s prettiest major city is in free fall. Among many articles on that is a detailed one from Britain’s Financial Times last week headlined, “What if San Francisco never pulls out of its doom loop?” From that column:

Online discourse about San Francisco’s “doom loop”, a downward economic and social spiral that becomes irreversible, feels less like hyperbole by the day. Even for a city that has always managed to rebuild after flattening financial and geological shocks, San Francisco — emptier, deadlier, more politically dysfunctional — seems closer to the brink than ever.

To make its point, the Financial Times used AI tools to create images showing the city in a post-apocalyptic state, like here for its cover. We chose not to do that for images of Chicago, hoping you’ll get the point anyway. True office occupancy in San Francisco is about 44% of pre-pandemic levels – not terribly much worse than Chicago’s 50%.

Reported after we wrote on this topic last month, the vacancy rate as traditionally measured hit a record high of 22.4% for Chicago’s central business district office space during the first quarter. That traditional measure looks at space under lease.

Also since we last wrote on this matter, several more potential commercial property casualties have been reported in Chicago. The lender holding a $230 million mortgage backed by the 49-story office tower at 161 N. Clark St. plans to hire a broker to sell the loan, Crain’s wrote on Friday, according to a source familiar with the matter. “But industry experts estimate the building today is worth less than the $230 million loan that the Korea Post venture took out against it in late 2018,” Crain’s wrote. “That valuation would imply an astronomical loss of equity for the owners, which paid about $331 million for the tower in 2013, according to Cook County property records.”

Also reported by Crain’s last week, “the historic Jewelers Building on Wacker Drive for more than 40 years is looking for a buyer as it stares down a deadline to pay off its mortgage. It’s playing up the landmark as a prime candidate to be turned into a residential tower.”

TheRealDeal also reported last week on the likely foreclosure on a major, prime retail property at the southwest corner of Michigan Avenue and Wacker Drive.

Crime is the other primary contributor to the doom loop in Chicago, San Francisco and many other cities. Crime is a solvable problem, raising the hope that at least that factor could be eliminated to help break the doom loop.

But in Chicago, is crime reduction a genuine possibility? A criminal’s Dream Team is now in place: Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Fox, Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, Cook County Chief Judge Tim Evans and Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle. They are cheered on by a supermajority in the Illinois General Assembly and by Gov. JB Pritzker, who show no interest in overriding their lax, woke approach to law enforcement. Instead, they all support the highly controversial Safe-T Act, now being challenged in court, which we’ve often criticized here.

Mayor Johnson’s new administration has offered no crime reduction program other than higher taxes to fund social programs that he believes are the long-term solution to crime.

Nor is anything else on that table to break the other elements contributing to Chicago’s downward spiral.

Get used to hearing about “doom loop,” though you’ll never hear it said by Illinois’ political establishment.

*Mark Glennon is founder of Wirepoints.

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Reality
2 years ago

Lockdowns. It’s the lockdowns, stupid. Stop blaming the so-called “pandemic” when we all know it was the hysterical reaction to a virus that caused all of this.

Silverfox
2 years ago
Reply to  Reality

Yes, the so-called pandemic and resultant lockdowns can be blamed for a lot, but the crime rate has played a significant part also. The WHO even said the pandemic was over and we can go back to ‘normal. I wish they could wave a magic wand and get rid of the crime as easily.

KJ
2 years ago

AI will do to offices what robotics did to factories.

Rick
2 years ago

Massive urban vacancy is the perfect preparation of where to place the millions of illegal migrants that crossed in over the last three years. If the government must now support and house these people, then doing it by filling high density office vacancies is by far the lowest cost way. Compared to building or filling single family dwellings. And the best part is that the big cities with these empty buildings are sanctuary cities, so they are proud and eager to fill their vacant offices with migrants. Its a win, win, win, win situation all around, buildings get filled, sanctuary… Read more »

Last edited 2 years ago by Rick
ProzacPlease
2 years ago
Reply to  Rick

Win win except for those who keep telling us about plenty more tax revenue to be had. Revenue source converted to revenue drain may put some stress on that plan.

SadStateofAffairs
2 years ago
Reply to  Rick

Absolutely a win win for the globalists looking to destroy the fabric of American cities. While they come here to receive entitlements and free everything, the US citizens and taxpayers will pay the bill. This will in effect turn us into a socialist country much faster because it’s a replacement plan to move us out and bring loyal single fighting age males into the country. It’s absolutely brilliant to see what they are doing which is forcing us to leave. He will leave the border wide open because he probably has a financial agreement with the cartels, AMLO, Soros, that… Read more »

Pensions Made Worse
2 years ago

Nothing a head tax can’t fix, amirite fellas?

Giddyap
2 years ago

2023 summer riots will make Doom Loop permanent for Chicago

jajujon
2 years ago

Millennials and Gen Z are loving WFH policies. If an employer attempts to force them into an office environment, they’ll find a job elsewhere that promotes WFH; still lots of unfilled white collar jobs looking for talent. But beware: according to Goldman Sachs, 63% of the corporate sector will see almost half of its workload affected by AI; 30% will be unscathed (manual and human touch labor); 7% will be completely eliminated. Add to WFH this impact from AI and companies will accelerate their implementation of workforce reductions. Don’t anticipate a return to full, stable commercial office occupancy. Loan defaults… Read more »

debtsor
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

This, and of course, in-person work is a mine-field today, with every interaction a potential microagression, a complaint to HR, forced use of pronouns on the nameplate on your office door (my spouse’s employer, mandated pronouns, but ignored by many), and for younger men, any inadvertent gaze becomes a sexual harassment claim. Then cram everyone into a ‘rented’ desk/cube, or worse, an ‘open air’ concept, with long tables of people crammed next to each other wearing headphones, and I don’t blame people for never wanting to return to the office again. I personally go into the office, but I have… Read more »

debtsor
2 years ago
Reply to  debtsor

I have one friend who returned to an office. Only a handful of Gen Z employees or Millennials came in near the end of pandemic closures, and within days, he was accused by HR of a microaggression for not sufficiently acknowledging the presence of an LGBTQ+ employee in the breakroom. He told me that he just wanted to get his coffee at 8:30 a.m. on a Monday and wasn’t microagressioning anybody. My other friend tells me that he avoids staff entirely, as it’s a daily occurrence that someone – management or staff – goes on some political tirade over something… Read more »

jajujon
2 years ago
Reply to  debtsor

Last I looked, white is in the crayon box with all the others, so it’s a color.

jajujon
2 years ago
Reply to  debtsor

I’ve been a remote employee for years, so I’ve lost touch of the office environment. What you described sounds awful. I’d be caught walking around the office changing nameplate pronouns to dumb/dumber.

Old Joe
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

Well Mark, I dated a HR gal in the 90s and it didn’t work out…..

Where's Mine???
2 years ago
Reply to  Old Joe

My 20 something is a WFH guy for one of the giant tech companies. He was hired, trained and works 100% from his apartment on a postage stamp size laptop and makes way more $ then I ever did. There’s officers downtown that he’s never been to. He’s never meet anyone in person from company….he keeps saying he doesn’t care if he’s laid-off because he’s in gigantic demand and he’ll just go to another co or take time off. I worry about him being socially isolated but he has a ton of friends. It’s all a very strange new world… Read more »

your dime, your dance floor
2 years ago
Reply to  jajujon

Ironically, AI will have the same affect on downtown office space as WFH. If AI takes over people’s jobs, and it will, there is still no need for downtown office space as AI doesn’t need office space and may not need space in the city, state, or country of the user of AI. Change is a comin’ and many people aren’t gonna be ready for it.

Frustrated
2 years ago

Government workers have yet to go back. Try going to ANY of the county buildings. They hand you mask when you walk in even though not one guard is wearing one. Then you are told you have to make an appointment for whatever task you need. Offices are empty. Signs all over stating courts are by Zoom. You will most likely be sent to another ( different) county building that ends up being the exact same nightmare. This is what your taxes are paying for. Why aren’t the journalists all over this…?

Jeff Carter @pointsnfigures1
2 years ago

If CME leaves Chicago, it will not be the taxes. It will be because their employees aren’t safe, and they cannot recruit new ones.

John Proud MAGA
2 years ago

The return-to-the-office trend is definitely continuing. Except that is for crime-ridden Democrat-run cities. The workers won’t go back there. Why spend extra money to go into the office to be a crime victim?

Streeterville
2 years ago

Mayor’s Office currently sponsoring tax-credit program to incentivize developers to renovate existing downtown LaSalle street office buildings into affordable housing, a “new” residential neighborhood consisting of majority low and moderate income families. Converting those high-rise buildings in essence is creating a new dense pocket of low/moderate-income families (ie: single-parent households) housed in multi-story apartments without ready access to outdoor playgrounds and green space for those new homes. CHA now-demolished Cabrini Green and Robert Taylor high-rise projects were condemned for those same specific reasons: high-rise dense multi-story apartments poorly suited for families with children.

Jeff Carter @pointsnfigures1
2 years ago
Reply to  Streeterville

Why build a ghetto in the heart of the financial district?

Old Joe
2 years ago

Spot on Jeff. Public housing tends to become uninhabitable over time everywhere its tried.

The NY Post has an article that covid eviction moratoriums have delayed maintenance to the point of demolition for some of the public housing stock.

debtsor
2 years ago

Because the goal of communism is to destroy.

Silverfox
2 years ago

Sadly, it won’t be a financial district for long if the CME and CBoT move out.

Platinum Goose
2 years ago

My wife’s employer has quarterly meetings at all their different properties they own/manage. When it’s held at their Chicago property turnout is terrible. My wife told me none of her coworkers feel safe going to the city and don’t fell safe commuting. They need to get a handle on crime but I don’t see that happening. Real estate companies realize they need to set an example for their tenants and are require their employees to be in the office. I think government needs to do the same. Are there any stats on what percentage of city, state and county workers… Read more »

Hale DeMar
2 years ago

Just wait for these downtown office leases to expire, subject top renewal. Vacancy Rates, you ain’t seen nothing yet !

Pensions Paid First
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

Would you rather have it all at once?

debtsor
2 years ago

Like ripping a band-aid off quickly, yes, better do it all at once, or at least speed up. SF seems to be the model right now as that downtown is in complete free fall.

Willowglen
2 years ago
Reply to  debtsor

San Francisco now has a benchmark sale. A property on California Ave just sold for 60-67M. Valued at 300M in 2019, and in the heart of the financial district. If this is the new price range, there indeed is an argument to get it all over with quickly. My guess is that drip, drip will prevail in many cases because banks will want to avoid some very massive write downs.

debtsor
2 years ago
Reply to  Willowglen

Japan has tried the slow drip for decades. It doesn’t work. America tends to be extreme, it goes big or goes home, so I don’t think we’ll take the slow Japan, or even now, slow Chinese route.

Poor Taxpayer
2 years ago

Job well done; you have managed to chase away the high-income earners. Their replacement looks like it will be poor illegal immigrants. Let’s see you raise taxes on people who do not have the incomes to pay them.

debtsor
2 years ago
Reply to  Poor Taxpayer

The only taxes they pay are sales and FICA. Ask any employer who hires workers of questionable legal immigration status: the dead giveaway is claiming 10 dependents on the W-4 form so that $0 federal income and $0 state are withheld. The 6% combined SS/Medicare is just a cost of doing business.

Pensions Paid First
2 years ago
Reply to  Poor Taxpayer

Not paying your bills has driven up the costs. Running up the credit card did that. Voters allowing Springfield to not make actuarial payments did that. I’ve mentioned many times on here that any extra money should go towards pension funds until we start making actuarial contributions and not just the statutory ones. People on here responded with all kinds of angry thoughts. Most don’t understand that even if the funds run dry the state is on the hook. No, this financial problem that Illinois is faced with is because the state and city of Chicago spends more money than… Read more »

Riverbender
2 years ago

Because just like on election day so many refuse to believe reality

Freddy
2 years ago

Respectfully you have stated many times the state did not meet it’s obligation. Also you have mentioned this is what the voters want. Most likely you voted the Democratic ticket. Politicians said anything to you to get elected and once they are in their priorities are with the “Party” not the necessarily with the voters. Then they do what the party requires of them. Even though you voted for your favorite candidate but most of them turned out to be George Santos but with different names. They lied to get in-they lie while they are in and lied to stay… Read more »

Pensions Paid First
2 years ago
Reply to  Freddy

“Most likely you voted the Democratic ticket.” Interesting. I have stated many times that I value the constitution. Do you believe democrats are better defenders of the constitution compared to republicans? You’ve made an assumption that because I don’t think it’s right to steal from retirees that somehow that makes me a democrat. Maybe it’s because I don’t whine non-stop about democrats as others do so you assume I must support them. “Remember for decades Madigan was in charge and only his district voted for him to be rep and then the reps vote for him to be Speaker not… Read more »

Freddy
2 years ago

Agree but he was speaker for 36 years and House member for 50. Everyone listened to him and did his bidding. Right now Democrats have super majority and still they do not make required pension contributions. They do what they want not what we want. Whether you vote D or R or I does not matter. Maps are drawn by whoever is in power and now it’s D maybe down the road R but either way once they get in they are in it for themselves. If you think that R’s will make the required yearly contributions then we should… Read more »

Pensions Paid First
2 years ago
Reply to  Freddy

“Question-If every fund is 100% funded now what then? The fund still has to make expected returns/must have an indication on how many new retirees yearly. What if more than expected retire like 3 or 4 times more. Now it’s not funded 100%.” Freddy, respectfully, that is not how actuarial funding levels are determined. An increase in people retiring doesn’t mean that overall pension costs increased. In fact, if people end up retiring earlier than expected their pensions are cut for each year they they left earlier than they should have. As an example, a teacher that won’t reach full… Read more »

Last edited 2 years ago by Pensions Paid First
Freddy
2 years ago

Thank You for the explanation.

Reality
2 years ago

There will be haircuts for everyone. Some of that labor was exchanged for promises to pay. Talk is as cheap today as it was then.

ProzacPlease
2 years ago

The voters were sacred when they were approving all sorts of benefits for public unions. It’s what the voters want, after all.

Now when a bigger mob has taken over the voters, they are willfully ignorant and the source of all problems.

Mob rule works great when you control the mob, but there are problems when a bigger mob comes along with different ideas….

Where's Mine???
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

I guess the other scarry giant issue is how much $ the pension funds have invested in the cmbs directly or through private equity, hedge funds, etc. I try and read articales on this but very complicated and over my head.

Hale DeMar
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

While these equity rich office towers and owner/landlords can and do re-fi their buildings, while taking equity out or just selling them, it’s the small retailers and almost every restaurant who doesn’t have the ‘re-fi’ option ! In the best of times, the average loop restaurant might make 6-10% on sales. Little wonder that the random violence, dangerous public transportation and the plague of festering and unpunished criminality will spell doom for the Loop and disaster for those $300 psf rents + real estate costs on Michigan Avenue. One need only recollect the migration from the south in the 50′… Read more »

taxpayer
2 years ago
Reply to  Hale DeMar

Danny Ecker writing in Crain’s today notes a “long list of law firms moving to newer buildings and cutting back on workspace,” They are reducing space but not abandoning all of it.

What I find really curious is how strong the market for downtown apartments is. I suppose that for those expecting to continue working downtown, this reduces the hassle of commuting.

Hale DeMar
2 years ago

While the smaller retailers attempt to remain open and operational in Chicago, despite the lackluster retail environment and the costs of relocating, the trend of closing the large super stores in the urban jungle is accelerating. For the corporate world, just the cost of doing business, while the small retailers cannot afford the luxury of remaining in the marketplace or relocating. Add to that the pandemic of retail theft which goes unpunished, there’ll be far fewer grocery stores, gas stations and soft good stores in the urban zones. Does not bode well for these urban islands populated by the affluent… Read more »

Doug
2 years ago

Sounds like the perfect space to house a million migrants, rather than dumping them on in abandoned schools in residential neighborhoods.

Alternatively, employers need to re-imagine office spaces. Create a space where people want to be, where if they work from home, they’ll truly miss out.

debtsor
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Working 8 hours in the office isn’t the problem. It’s the commute to downtown Chicago, the rat race, that few ever want to return to. The commute to downtown offices in TX is easier than Chicago/DC/NY or SF, so TX has higher occupancy. The Kennedy construction causing 90+ min commute times, in the middle of the day, is a non-starter for the couple million plus people living northwest of the city to drive into Chicago.

nixit
2 years ago

My employer got rid of one floor. The folks who typically work from home 3-4 days per week lost their permanent cubicles and now “hotel” when they come into the office. Even the hotel cubes are mostly empty. And now that we’re all closer together but still doing Zoom calls from our desks, it’s noisier and harder to concentrate.

Goodgulf Greyteeth
2 years ago
Reply to  nixit

I suspect that much of Illinois’ government office spaces are far more often vacant than they are occupied as well. Even in smaller urban cities and rural towns, state offices are often located in places where the people who work in them don’t live. They’re ‘downtown’ in those cities-n-towns too – adjacent to bus stops, with expensive, crank or rough parking. The buildings and interiors are uniformly used-n-careworn, if not simply dilapidated. You share the facility with an IDES Office, or Public Aid, or a Secretary of State DL operation. Why spend money traveling too and from a workplace like… Read more »

Platinum Goose
2 years ago

There’s a portfolio of office buildings for sale leased to the state of Illinois. My guess is the owner sees the handwriting on the wall. The asking cap rate was 8.75%, in our industry that indicates junk credit. It could also be they’re mostly vacant and when the lease is up for renewal it won’t get renewed.

https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/State-of-Illinois/25035037/

ToughLove
2 years ago

Mark, I think it’s clear for Illinois residents to survive the states collapse, the best solution is to not to be in Illinois. I don’t know however, what financial moves a person can make to survive the commercial real estate collapse. That’s more complicated than just not living in a big city. Thanks to Wirepoints for keeping us mindful of this issue so we aren’t caught by surprise.

ToughLove
2 years ago
Reply to  ToughLove

Just one thought. If downtown office space isn’t being used, wouldn’t that indicate those employees are in need of a dedicated space at home. Wouldn’t that lead to a trend towards larger homes? Perhaps larger homes will appreciate faster in the future. Perhaps residential builders will benefit by the demand for larger homes. A 3 bedroom home may no longer be sufficient for a couple with 2 kids.

Willowglen
2 years ago
Reply to  ToughLove

You make a good point about cities and the commercial real estate collapse – it is occurrence in most cities. But the impact will vary depending on the City. Chicago’s debts and huge overhead means the impact on the city will be harsh. From a taxpayer perspective, taxes will increase, including property taxes. Out migration will increase. Of greater concern to me is the banks and financial institutions- they will be taking back properties at a greatly diminished value which will also require investment. We could see a huge banking crisis 2008 was serious but this could be worse. And… Read more »

Pensions Paid First
2 years ago
Reply to  Willowglen

If the doomsday happens a federal bailout will follow. As you and others have noted, this is a national problem. We already know our banks are “too big to fail”, so this shouldn’t come as a shock when it happens.

Willowglen
2 years ago

I think you are right. But the banks that will fail will be the regional banks. They will merge one way or another into the four or five large banks, and there will be far less banking competition. The mergers will not happen without large federal assistance. Regulators just cannot work against the next big risk; they appear to cover only or the last one – in the case of 2008 – credit quality – in the case of the present – high interest rates – which they just cannot get a handle on. Cheap credit makes everyone lazy, or… Read more »

Old Joe
2 years ago

PPF, the real issue isn’t commercial real-estate failing. It’s our money failing.

debtsor
2 years ago

Normally I would say, yes, a bailout will come, but with inflation, public anger at the last bailout, and little appetite with the Fed to expand their QE balance sheet, I personally wouldn’t be so quick to expect a sweeping bailout. The Treasury dept has repeatedly said these recent bank failures were not bailouts. They’ve been careful to avoid using bailout.

Pensions Paid First
2 years ago
Reply to  debtsor

I agree that they won’t call them bailouts but they won’t have a choice about providing help. The choice of letting the commercial real estate market trigger a massive financial meltdown that spreads to the entire economy isn’t really a choice. Sure people will complain about the bailouts but they will happen in some way shape or form just as they have in the past. This country loves bailouts. Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP): Established in October 2008, TARP was the largest bailout program. It aimed to stabilize the financial sector and restore confidence in the banking system by providing… Read more »

debtsor
2 years ago

I’d like to believe that the difference this time, compared to previous bailouts, is inflation. Bailouts are inflationary and people are feeling inflation hard. I hung out with a friend a few weeks ago. She lamented inflation is destroying her purchasing power, and her small yearly pay increases are not making up the difference. The household budget is strained and her standard of living is being reduced on a daily basis. Kitchen table normies like her aren’t going to be happy when they hear Korea Post, the mortgagee on 161 N Clark, is getting bailed out a hundred million dollars,… Read more »

Pensions Paid First
2 years ago
Reply to  debtsor

So your belief is that inflation is so bad that Washington will see the error of their ways? Look at you being so optimistic.

When the feds bailed out the Central States pension fund with $36 billion the inflation rate was 7% and now it’s at 4.9%. It certainly didn’t stop them in December of 2021. If it wasn’t for Joe Manchin they would have spent even more on things that weren’t even necessary.

They will use tough words that the money will be fully recovered and it isn’t really a bailout but rescue will come to prevent total implosion.

debtsor
2 years ago

No one really believes inflation is 4.9% right now. Shadow stats has it north of 8%. Additionally, no average person is saying “inflation is moderating”. All the average family sees is their purchasing power decreasing and their standard of living decreasing. My other buddy told me that his wife had taken out two credit cards in the past two years and run up five figures in credit card debt. He asked how this happened, and she told him that their monthly budget was tight to begin with, and inflation in everything from oil changes, to school registration fees, groceries and… Read more »

Pensions Paid First
2 years ago
Reply to  debtsor

“No one really believes inflation is 4.9% right now. Shadow stats has it north of 8%” What does “shadow stats” show it was during December of 2021? That’s right, they also showed it was higher in December of 2021 than the 7% that I quoted. Your evidence only shows that your preferred source for inflation shows higher rates than CPI-U and not evidence that the inflation rate was lower in December of 2021 than it is currently. Regardless of which source is used the point is still made. Just to be clear, my point is that inflation rate is less… Read more »

debtsor
2 years ago

“Maybe our leaders will let our economy implode because they don’t want to see your friends wife run up her credit card anymore.”

That’s called a bad-faith strawman argument. I said there’s not a lot of appetite for a bailout, inflation is ravaging the country, families are hurting, and the last time we were in a similar situation to now, in 1980’s, the Republicans had a blow out electoral, and if Republicans are in power, there won’t be much appetite for a bailout. I have my and you disagree, but you don’t need to distort what I’ve said.

Pensions Paid First
2 years ago
Reply to  debtsor

Republicans had all that going for them in the last election. I remember many people on this site and others telling everyone that it was going to be a massive wave election. I’m sure it will be different in 2024. You certainly have a pulse on these type of things. I only brought up your friends wife because you used it into your argument as to why it was different this time. Not bad faith at all. The economy imploding will take precedent over Karen from the suburbs desire for lowering inflation. Politicians will simply calculate which is worse, more… Read more »

Last edited 2 years ago by Pensions Paid First
Pensions Paid First
2 years ago
Reply to  debtsor

“last time we were in a similar situation to now” The last time we were in this situation with high inflation and a bailout was in 2021 for the Central States pension fund. They were given $36 billion. That wasn’t even a bailout that was to ward off economic doom. Just a typical bailout that takes care of ones “friends”. You want to ignore that and go back 43 years. You’re right that we are both just offering up our opinions. My opinion is that this country is not afraid of bailouts based on the record of the last 15… Read more »

The inevitable
2 years ago

I believe the coming bank failure crisis will trigger a melt down larger than the Great Depression, over several years. Even the full weight of the US GOVT won’t be able to stop it. We already have too many dollars in circulation. More will cause hyperinflation. It will topple the dollar. We will lose our reserve currency. Chicago and IL will default without federal help. The cavalry isn’t coming this time.

Pensions Paid First
2 years ago
Reply to  The inevitable

You’re making my point for me. The threat of a massive meltdown of banking will always be unacceptable and will force the government to respond. I’m sure a time will come where even the “weight of the US GOVT won’t be able to stop it” but it won’t happen until every lever of the US GOVT is used to prevent this full meltdown. Someone complaining about 5% inflation won’t stop it.

Honest Jerk
2 years ago

Love the term, “Criminal Dream Team”. Thanks for my first smile of the day Mark.

Where's Mine ???
2 years ago

so, when I get my automatic “Doom Loop” prop tax increase due to crashing downtown prop values to meet set levy $amounts$, I’m sure CTU/Brandon will claim he’s still meeting his campaign pledge to not raise prop taxes?

Freddy
2 years ago

I don’t know what the writers of this article were smoking but Chicago/Rockford/Peoria are the best cities in Illinois to live. Maybe it’s a side effect of getting too many boosters. Give me a break.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/illinois-lands-4-cities-list-093426511.html

Last edited 2 years ago by Freddy
debtsor
2 years ago
Reply to  Freddy

LOL first comment on Yahoo! says:

“Every one of them ranked high for “housing affordability”. That means people want to sell and get out, but nobody wants to buy there.”

Hi-larious!

Riverbender
2 years ago
Reply to  Freddy

Oh yes Rockford
Here are some of its leading citizens
http://www.rockfordcrimestoppers.com/fugitives/

Freddy
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

Thanks. Mark-Did you go thru all the comments on the link? My comment is mild compared to what people say about Rockford and the other cities listed.
Read the replies to the comments at the link if you need a good laugh.

Last edited 2 years ago by Freddy
Rick
2 years ago

One thing Chicago has going for it is terrible winters which keep tent cities and homeless in public view from taking a foothold. We were in LA and its a much different story there. Skyscrapers and office buildings in general are obsolete, there is absolutely no need for people to be physically close to each other to collaborate. In fact its proven that video meetings are much more productive, recorded, materials of the meeting a click away later, ability to demonstrate software in real time, everyone seeing the same Excel or whatever, no wasted time. The gift of WFH is… Read more »

FJB
2 years ago
Reply to  Rick

The gift is WFH is home can be anywhere. WSJ did an article on this in February, discussing how people are leaving big cities for small towns.

Last edited 2 years ago by FJB
Old Joe
2 years ago
Reply to  Rick

Two weeks to flatten a curve flattened downtowns everywhere! Thanks dems.

debtsor
2 years ago
Reply to  Rick

The first six or seven floors of every skyscraper will eventually hold illegal immigrant after the elevators break down and stop working.

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Mark Glennon on AM560’s Morning Answer: Chicago pension buyout plan mostly shifts debt rather than eliminating it, property tax surge doubles inflation over three decades

Chicago’s political leadership is floating a pension buyout program as evidence it is seriously addressing the city’s thirty-six-billion-dollar unfunded pension liability, but Mark Glennon, founder of the Illinois policy research organization Wirepoints, said that the proposal moves debt from one column to another rather than reducing it, and that the broader fiscal picture facing the city continues to deteriorate across every measurable dimension. Audio here.

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