Illinois began providing COVID-19 hospitalization and resource data only on April 3, 2020, after many groups, including Wirepoints, requested the data be released. The state now provides the data daily on the IDPH website here.

The hospitalization and resource availability numbers shown below are key to knowing if the crisis is subsiding and to determining when parts of the economy can begin to reopen. Wirepoints is now compiling this data so our readers can see how the numbers are trending over time.

Importantly, there are still many key numbers we are not receiving from the state but that are necessary for properly assessing the situation. The data missing includes:

  • The number of daily COVID-19 hospital admissions and discharges. That’s important data central to understanding how the spread of the coronavirus is progressing.
  • The comorbidities present in COVID-19 deaths. IDPH does not disclose what percentage of victims had underlying causes. That’s key to understanding what demographics are most vulnerable to the disease. Wirepoints did, however, access the Cook County Medical Examiner’s database to calculate comorbidities for deaths in that county. The results are included below.
  • The results of antibody testing performed in Illinois. Antibody tests are important because they indicate how much of the population had the coronavirus, with or without symptoms, and are therefore likely to be immune for some period of time. A large prevalence of antibodies in the population would indicate that the effective fatality rate is smaller than first thought.

Click here to visit Wirepoints’ COVID-19 page and learn more about the impact the virus is having on Illinois.

*For optimal data viewing, please ensure your web browser is updated to its most recent release*

IDPH data as of: Deaths and cases 1/15; Vaccinations, hospitalizations and resources 1/14


Be aware that the Case Fatality Rate, or CFR, shown in the following two charts is not a true measure of the risk of dying. Instead, it is a measure of the number of deaths compared to the number of confirmed cases. The true risk of dying is the Infection Mortality Rate, or IFR, which compares the number of deaths to the total number of people who became infected, which is higher than the number of confirmed cases since many infections go unreported. The IFR is therefore lower than the CFR. The IFR, however, is not estimated or reported by the state. Expert estimates vary substantially, primarily because of uncertainty about how many infections are going unreported. A discussion of the difference between CFR and IFR is linked here. Wirepoints’ piece on the topic is linked here.

 

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Mark rosanova
1 day ago

Thank you for a great job! In Florida labs are required to report cycle thresholds with PCR tests. I know some labs in Illinois now reporting Ct. anyway you can start following that? At least the percent over 34Ct so we know how many” cases” are false positive?

DixonSyder
4 days ago

I’m sure I’m not the only one on this site who knows someone who has died from”Covid”. An acquaintance of mine died at 98 yrs of age. In a nursing home with many complications health wise, 98 yrs old is a darn good bite of lifes apple. It’s a shame that he died, he had friends and family and was a good decent man but making a mockery of his death by calling him a Covid victim is disgusting. At 98 I wanna go with a vodka martini in both hands and two 21 year old strippers giving the chrome… Read more »

Last edited 4 days ago by DixonSyder
Kenneth B Cooley Jr.
8 days ago

Always an excellent job here on Wirepoints. This exposes the fallacies and puts some common sense back into the discussion. Keep up the great work Ted and Mark and team

Rufus
10 days ago

You should track the covid vaccine shots injected and the number of doses delivered to Illinois each day or week.

Kenneth B Cooley Jr.
8 days ago
Reply to  Rufus

yep and all those still in storage like 87,000 they aren’t giving out.

Fed up.
12 days ago

They reduced icu, hospital bed capacity by 8-10 percent on November 16 and they still can’t get the numbers above 80 percent, which is the justification for lockdowns. Why reduce capacity if we are in the scary second wave. Oh yeah, where is the flu. Criminals, not heros.

Kenneth B Cooley Jr.
8 days ago
Reply to  Fed up.

Exactly.

13 days ago

Cali should be added to the metrics on state data to review in comparison to IL

Transparent Illinois
15 days ago

Is it possible the variant of covid that spreads faster arrived here in October and is why daily cases spiked and are now decreasing?

Freddy
17 days ago

According to SS life expectancy tables Females average life is 80.96 and Males 75.97.-2017 data Macrotrends says average for both is 78.93. 2019 data. Close to 50% of all Covid deaths in Illinois are in nursing homes. According to http://www.wifr.com 105 died from Covid Monday broken down 65 died ages 80’s to 100+ and 21 in their 70’s. It seems like many (50% or more) who are dying from Covid are beating life expectancy tables to begin with some by a long time others close to average. Agree that Covid may have quickened the process a little but their underlying… Read more »

Fed up neighbor
17 days ago
Reply to  Freddy

Sorry Freddy but it’s all about what they want you to think manipulated numbers and facts.

Last edited 17 days ago by Fed up neighbor
Freddy
17 days ago

Very True!

MeB
16 days ago
Reply to  Freddy

We’ll find out if excess deaths are lower than expected in the year or two post pandemic (ie- a statistically significant number of people died in 2020 that would have otherwise died in 2021/2022). Its not quite as simple as subtracting the average life expectancy from the persons age. The smart way to do this is with actuarial tables like the life insurance adjusters use. This tells you depending on what age you are the odds of living for how much longer. You can figure out the expected months and years that have been lost in excess of the average.… Read more »

Kenneth B Cooley Jr.
8 days ago
Reply to  Freddy

Agreed. Everything is COVID. Fall out of a tree, bam, it’s COVID death. It’s all a ruse.

Djb
18 days ago

Can we get a graph on total vaccinations that have been applied ?

The Truth Hurts
18 days ago
Reply to  Djb

While this isn’t a graph by daily vaccinations it is updated daily and gives a breakdown by state as to how many vaccines have been distributed and how many total have been vaccinated so far. Probably not exactly what you are looking for but still helpful.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/covid-vaccine-states-distribution-doses/

MeB
17 days ago

Thanks, this is really informative. They say Illinois should have 76% of healthcare workers and nursing home residents/workers with the first dose in the next few days (they didnt count the 67k first responders even though they are supposedly prioritized over nursing homes for some reason). I suspect with a larger amount of people opting out than anticipated, that percentage will creep up, hopefully the nursing homes get full coverage asap. If our politicians had brains in their heads they would have given antibody tests to healthcare workers and de-prioritized everyone that has already been infected. We’re going to waste… Read more »

JasonT
2 days ago
Reply to  MeB

Labeling everything as CV19 disguises actual flu and pneumonia deaths. This new “vaccine” won’t help.

Unemployed observer
19 days ago
Reply to  Local observer

Did you read the latest from AIER about how WHO changed the definition of Herd Immunity ?

Freddy
17 days ago
Reply to  Local observer

Appropriate song from The Who maybe–Won’t get fooled again. Check out the lyrics.

Freddy
28 days ago
Reply to  Local observer

I read Mercola everyday. Even Dr.Fauci said in a video conference back in July that cycle threshold of 37 or even 36 the chances of it being Replication-Confident are minuscule. Yet the entire world is almost shutdown based on a PCR test with cycle test of 35-40 even 45. If you test positive at 17-20 cycles you probably have a transmissible virus but they do not give you the CT value.
I asked my wife when she received test results to give her the CT value but it is not on the paper . Only Positive or Negative.

28 days ago
Reply to  Local observer

This was interesting (the comments too!). 1 of every 220 Americans were ‘diagnosed’ in the last week. In this group, there are a few false positives. The fascinating aspect is that the underlying number of true positive cases represent only a tiny fraction of true positive cases walking (and spreading) around the virus, including by people who think they know better.Illinois is reaching functional herd immunity as we speak and the US is not far behind. Some areas are not quite there. Hot spot: California hospitals buckle as virus cases surge (apnews.com) The quote from the Mercola site that summarizes… Read more »

Freddy
28 days ago

Do you know out of all the positive cases in Illinois per day how many tests were given? At http://www.wifr.com scroll down to IDPH and they list Covid deaths per county. They said there were 8,828 new cases but not how many they tested the same day and 181 deaths . I counted 96 deaths for those aged from 80’s to 100+ and 52 in their 70’s the rest 60’s and 50’s. To me the common link is the indirect side effects of medications they take and why young people are not dying even close to the rate that of… Read more »

Foreign observer
28 days ago
Reply to  Freddy

Look at the graph below or go to Covidtracking and then to specific state for interactive tools. Covidtracking is coming from private participants who wanted to tabulate and share accurate and timely data. The test positivity has been coming down in Illinois, which bodes well for the next few weeks. Your theory about meds is interesting. There is no doubt that ‘comorbidities’ are risk factors. However, it seems like age is the most significant independent factor by far. The coronavirus seems to exploit immunity senescence that occurs with aging. The virus in older people is typically met with an insufficient… Read more »

Illinois.png
Freddy
28 days ago

Thanks. Great info. I just got my Vitamin D level back and it’s at 44. I take approx 3,500 iu’s D3 with K2/day and still have a hard time getting to 50-70. Calcium level is good. Magnesium is good. Vitamin D level of over 40 is a great regulator for cytokine storm but many people are very deficient. I take 25mg of zinc every few days in winter mostly from lozenges and no colds or flu for at least 13 years now. Maybe lucky? It would be good to know what these levels are in Covid patients especially in nursing… Read more »

28 days ago
Reply to  Freddy

Thank you for the anecdotal information. The supplement industry is indeed huge, i don’t know much about bioinnovations but lifeextension.com’s story is punctuated by many red flags. Could you explain the link between vitamin D and cytokine storm (not the marketing lingo to extract $)? When was the last time you visited someone in a nursing home?
Your country will issue new dietary guidelines soon (2020-5).
The ‘old’ one is still quite adequate:
2015-2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (health.gov)

Last edited 28 days ago by Foreign observer
Freddy
27 days ago

Info at http://www.pubmed.gov just search Vitamin D and cytokine storm Or http://www.NCBI(pubmed.gov). Many good scientific double blind studies on all health matters. Also search at pubmed “Is low sodium a risk factor for severe Covid” also low magnesium and viruses. Low b12 and Covid. Low zinc and Covid many studies on this. Whatever combination comes to mind if there is a study it should be there. I do know people who work at nursing homes. Back in late April my wife got a call from a CNA there with a fever of 102.9 and asked what to do. She thinks… Read more »

27 days ago
Reply to  Freddy

i’ve been following the medical literature stuff quite closely. At this point, for the vitamin D to cytokine storm thing, the understanding is incomplete and the evidence, wildly insufficient. There is some ‘correlation’ stuff with a lot of uncontrolled bias and nothing material, at least so far, in terms of causality. Sorry. You have to be aware that most people will ‘recover’ from Covid (natural history in most) so whatever you do or don’t do will look like a ‘success’. In my field, 80% of people see their condition improve over a course of 6 weeks (whatever one does or… Read more »

Freddy
27 days ago

True. Thank You again.Our bodies each have nutritional needs that are all different for optimum health so not one standard for all. RDA recommended doses are for minimum not optimum or best. What I have found out is nutrients and medicines dosages should be monitored depending on weight. If someone loses or gains a lot of weight the medicines/nutrients should be adjusted. Vitamin D is approx 30-35 iu’s per pound of weight/per day then get checked a few times a year. African Americans are very low in Vit D. Here are some good books I recommend reading. Your Blood Never… Read more »

MeB
18 days ago

The problem with a disease that 99%+ of people survive is that almost everyone survives no matter what you do. Thats a good thing, of course, but its easy to fool yourself with limited data. You need really big studies like they use on vaccines to provide meaningful evidence, and those are expensive and resource intensive. Hence we get a ton of essentially anecdotal claims on preventing and mitigating covid. Some of them might be true but we wont find out until probably years later, if ever.

Bill
29 days ago

Here is something I would like answered as well. A study came out of NY, similar to one from LA. They did contact tracing and found out 1.5% of the COVID cases are from restaurants and bars. 74% of COVID cases are from in house gatherings. Now, these are facts, not “what ifs” so Foreign Observer, when you reply don’t give me projections, what ifs, etc…. I want facts. So if that is the case then why would we continue to close restaurants and bars? I know why, the government can’t control you when you are in your house or… Read more »

29 days ago
Reply to  Bill

OK. Let’s keep it simple using point form. -To catch a virus, you have to come into contact -The least common denominator is the household (the virus will not jump from China) -Community spread is the critical link Let’s say you are in charge -you may want to let it rip and protect the ‘vulnerables’ but you have to remember that this has been shown not to work elsewhere (the Swedish king just apologized to the nation). -you’d likely wish to prevent the virus from entering your community or, if it does, to contain the spread rapidly and effectively, like… Read more »

Scotland.jpg
debtsor
29 days ago

Let ‘er rip is certainly a viable option, provided: 1- lock down elderly; 2 – provide financial/medical assistance to the vulnerable 3- provide one time financial assistance to those required to quarantine. SARS-CoV-2 is a very weak pandemic, as far as pandemics go. Plagues of the past killed tens of millions and killed indiscriminately. Research the black death, and small pox, and polio, and dysentery; or even more recently, SARS, Ebola or MERS. This coronavirus is likely the weakest pandemic ever to affect the world. The overreaction authoritarian governments, and the acceptance of the same, is shameful. These are the… Read more »

29 days ago
Reply to  debtsor

Let ‘er rip is a theoretical construct. It’s an idea that could not be achieved anywhere in the world. Contrary to SARS, Covid is tricky because of its lower virulence (still significant for a significant portion of the population) combined with its high contagiousness. To fight this virus (evolutionary thinking), constructive collaboration and cooperation (not dictatorship) are the best tools, if you can find a way to use them. The US has a relatively younger population than other developed countries (and the comparable high virus mortality countries) but the pattern of comorbidities is more widespread. Something like 25 to 35%… Read more »

debtsor
29 days ago

“Modern societies are integrated and nobody, to my knowledge, has been able to transform this theoretical plan into a practical application.” How about most of the third world, where testing is lacking, populations are younger, and there was little shutting down? Like most of Africa and parts of Asia? In fact, in most of these places, let ‘er rip is really the only option, and seems to be working just fine. As for co-morbidities, but if you’re over 55, obese, unhealthy, and watching cable TV on the couch all day…we’ll, rosseau’s social contract doesn’t have a ‘young people must sacrifice… Read more »

Last edited 29 days ago by debtsor
29 days ago
Reply to  debtsor

You haven’t answered the question about the practical application of your theoretical idea. The biggest risk factor is age (look at exponential trend at a certain point, the data from this site above). The major reason that developing countries have done relatively OK is because of their much younger population. The rules of the game for healthcare in your country (and mine) which has been, so far, some kind of compromise, is to channel most healthcare dollars to the older and sicker population irrespective of ‘fault’. Even in your country, more than 50% of healthcare dollars are publicly funded. You… Read more »

Last edited 29 days ago by Foreign observer
Bill
29 days ago

The virus doesn’t disappear, the flu and colds don’t disappear, they come back every year. It is here, we protect the vulnerable and move on. I know quite a few people that have gotten COVID and they have all been fine, minor symptoms, and they move on. This is all ages, and some obese, some with other health issues or nothing at all. I have talked to these people. Everyone reacts differently to a virus, not just this one. It is normal reaction. It is terrible people are dying but that is a virus. Why haven’t we shutdown all the… Read more »

29 days ago
Reply to  Bill

i see what you mean. But. 1-Covid is not the flu From data which came out recently in my province (similar to Europe and US), which looked at the period from late Feb to mid July. The risk higher with age but starting to be significant at age 50 and older. Covid compared to Flu -The risk to be become sick and hospitalized was way higher if exposed -The risk for longer duration (3x the duration) -The risk to reach ICU x 2 -The risk to die x 6 This was a new virus for which natural immunity was limited.… Read more »

Ada Andrist
21 days ago
Reply to  Bill

I agree with you. Now how do we get our freedom back?

Wendy Miller
27 days ago
Reply to  Bill

Google Illinois contact tracing data. It will bring up the Illinois Department of Health data for contact tracing that they’ve done. It gives figures on #cases/#people tied traced to restaurants, medical facilities, workplaces, schools, etc. You can see the data by region, too. The DuPage Health Department is the only county I’m aware of that shares this data.

NoHope4Illinois
29 days ago

The first batch of the Pfizer Covid vaccine has been shipped and frontline healthcare workers are receiving the vaccine. The Moderna version is expected to receive emergency use approval Friday. 8 million vaccinations are expected to occur next week! People involved said even the expected hiccups on the accelerated rollout are being handled quickly – A complete focus on excellence and getting results!

The results of ‘Operation Warp Speed’ have been nothing less than a medical miracle. Thank you President Trump for your leadership!

Fed up
30 days ago

I have to say, the poster under the name “foreign observer” sure seems like he may be JB pritzker himself.

Bill
30 days ago
Reply to  Fed up

No kidding, he certainly has alot of time on his hands

30 days ago
Reply to  Bill

It’s probably best to stay focused on facts and analysis (rationality).
But i understand that ad hominems is all you (and fed up) have.
BTW, this site provides a lot of useful data and there’s plenty of room for constructive debates.
An unfortunate aspect is that those who focus on tribal thinking tend not to react well to thoughtful and analytical processes. Sometimes it makes them become even more tribal. Unfortunate.

Bill
29 days ago

Just having some fun my man, don’t be so serious, people are serious enough, just lighten up

29 days ago
Reply to  Bill

i’m almost retired but not that old. We each have to come to grips concerning what balance means. The achievement of vaccines is great and has been related to many factors (and some luck). The unfortunate part is that spread in many countries (including my area and most of the US) has mirrored pretty much what happened during the 1918 Spanish flu episode, with a very large and deadly subsequent fall wave. It’s as if we haven’t learned much since then. Another unfortunate part (look at what a certain David Fisman from Toronto has been describing) is that by the… Read more »

covid world.png
Bill
1 month ago

This is another example of these Democrat Governors moving the goal posts once again. I just read an article from NBC, locally in IL, Pritzker said the State may not allow regions to roll back mitigations due to concerns of holiday-related spikes in COVID 19 numbers even though they meet all three criteria to move forward. Region 6 has met all the criteria to move to less restrictive mitigations but now they won’t let them because of the upcoming Holidays and the potential of increased numbers, possibly in the next few weeks. This is another example of this Government wanting… Read more »

Kenneth B Cooley Jr.
30 days ago
Reply to  Bill

Agreed. This is about control. Not health. Crushing small businesses to death not saving humans is what this has been about for all Democrats since March.

Mark Smith
1 month ago

Reporting on “case” numbers does nothing but validate the useless RT-PCR test, which was not created as a diagnostic tool, nor can it reliably indicate the level of infection or predict whether the person can be considered contagious. Somebody in the media needs to stand up to JB and his lackey doctor from IDPH and ask, what is the cycle threshold that Illinois uses for the PRC test (anything more than 25 amplification cycles is pretty much worthless in terms of the amount of false positives generated), and challenge them as to why we are putting so much stock in… Read more »

George P. Burdell
1 month ago
Reply to  Mark Smith

Thank God for Gov. DeSantis and the state of Florida – they are now requiring the reporting of CT thresholds values for PCR tests. https://www.flhealthsource.gov/files/Laboratory-Reporting-CT-Values-12032020.pdf

This should have been required the day they started basing everything off these USELESS tests.

Screenshot 2020-12-11 100633.png
1 month ago

Both of you can focus all you want on technical details and spread misinformation, disinformation and conspiration theories but there has been excess mortality in correlation to positive tests and it’s slowly being recognized that, essentially, all excess deaths are due to the virus.
For many obvious reasons, at this point, knowing the Ct-threshold value would be useless for individual decisions.

nchs-mortality-report.gif
Fed up
1 month ago

You have no idea what your talking about.

1 month ago
Reply to  Fed up

Is that so?
Can you elaborate (data, reasoning)?

Freddy
1 month ago

July 16,202 This week in Virology 641
If you get a cycle threshold of 35 or more the chances of it being replication-confident are minuscule. You almost never can culture a virus from a 37 threshold cycle from a 37 or even a 36. Dr. Fauci.
It would be good to know at what cycle you tested positive. At 17-20 you can transmit the virus but at 36-45 which most tests are there is a minute chance if any. Just going by what Dr. Fauci said.

1 month ago
Reply to  Freddy

-Most “positive” tests have a threshold lower than 35 -The distribution of test results tends to be bell-shaped so that tails (including the upper tail towards 35+) contain only a minority of results -Within the same lab, there is significant variability (Ct-threshold value) for the same sample, there is wide variability between labs and the person’s viral load can be very dynamic—) so it’s reasonable that if you go in AM, you may get a Ct of 34, go in PM, get a Ct of 22 and go the next day and get a Ct of 28 (uncertainty secondary to… Read more »

Sherie L Dvorak
30 days ago

I will be more then happy to debate your conclusion. I will share the link to the Cook Cty, IL medical examiner’s stats, of “Covid” deaths. Please feel free to scroll across and note the secondary causes of death makes for informative reading. https://datacatalog.cookcountyil.gov/Public-Safety/Medical-Examiner-Case-Archive-COVID-19-Related-Dea/3trz-enys/data

Spectator
30 days ago

Cook County? Never trust that place.

30 days ago

What is your point?
ie
What is it that you’re questioning and what is your answer?

MeB
30 days ago

Something is wrong with this graph. 2017-18 was a bad influenza year. The CDC data estimated 61,099 inluenza deaths that season.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

30 days ago
Reply to  MeB

The black lines of mortality are seasonal in nature and contain the expected seasonal deaths from the flu. The 2017-8 flu season was unusual (however note the favorable overall long term trend from decades back) and the excess mortality from that year is depicted (red line). The graph, once appreciated for its full value (data wise), reveals how incredibly unusual the 2020 covid-19 episode has been as an outlier. If you follow the data over time, under this heading (excess covid-19 deaths as a portion of total excess deaths), you find out that, as charts are reviewed and attribution of… Read more »

MeB
30 days ago

Maybe but if they are using their data for number of coded influenza deaths to create those baselines, theyve got a problem because those numbers are much lower than the CDC estimates. If they arent, why put it in the same graph?

The discrepancy could be between ‘coded influenza deaths’, which could have all kinds of caveats, and the CDC methodology, but regardless the difference is huge.

30 days ago
Reply to  MeB

???
The baseline numbers are simply linear progression of past trends.
What is it that you’re suggesting?
These are all basic CDC numbers (their methodology is available)
?
The excess mortality stuff by CDC is based on solid methodology and is a very good tool to detect trends (recent or not).
?

benicia
1 month ago

Two weeks since Thanksgiving and I’m not seeing any explosions from toxic turkey in the charts.

1 month ago

that’s a total case count chart. Totally meaningless as it is directly tied to number of tests. Use positivity rate. It shows a slight but steady decrease since 11/18

1 month ago
Reply to  Real facts

Oh no! not this again, this i-don’t-want-to-see-reality-a all-costs.
Look at positivity trends across the US since Thanksgiving (see graph below).
My favorite source on many topics is the Wall Street Journal. Here’s a fairly balanced take (Dec. 8th).
Covid-19 Thanksgiving Surge Begins to Arrive – WSJ.com
Many people again are complacent and fail to appreciate the virus dynamic with the incubation period (including asymptomatic), the delay and then the exponential rise in people going to hospitals and dying, many of whom did not ask for this.

COVIDDec102020.PNG
Benicia
1 month ago

If I lived across the US I’d care. It’s only IL that matters to me. Furthermore there may be a correlation between the rise in other locations and the date of the holiday, but that does not establish causality.

1 month ago
Reply to  Benicia

A friendly reminder that IL stands in #10 position in the fifty states with 121 deaths per 100k population. If IL were a country, compared to other developed European countries, it would rank second to Belgium and way ahead of Italy, Spain and the UK.
A virus spreads (it’s not rocket science, it’s basic science), if allowed to spread, and protecting the “vulnerables” has not worked. IL may “benefit” already from developing herd immunity. If present trends continue, vaccines may even become irrelevant for your area.

MeB
30 days ago

But Illinois has taken far more precautions such as lockdowns than comparable states that are doing much better per capita. Like Florida, Arizona, or Texas.

Weather seems to be a far better indicator of infection rates than mitigation attempts. All of the big northern states have seen explosions this fall where mitigation efforts have been strongest.

30 days ago
Reply to  MeB

There are indeed multiple variables. The idea is to help at the margin and with the variables one can control given the fundamentals of viral spread. The idea is to look at the data and then form hypotheses. If you start with opinions and beliefs, you can selectively find variables that will go your way. One can argue that ‘lockdowns’ don’t work (there are potential arguments concerning that aspect, even if overall poor, and one could certainly argue about the costs of ‘lockdowns’) but suggesting that ‘lockdowns’ cause more covid deaths is mind boggling. But this is a virus and… Read more »

Amy
1 month ago

I haven’t seen the case fatality by age chart for the last couple days. Will that be coming back? Thanks for all you do!

Freddy
1 month ago
Reply to  Amy

If you check http://www.wifr.com website (Rockford)you can click news scroll down to IDPH. They have a list of Covid deaths by age/male/female in all counties. Most of the deaths are 80’s to 100+

1 month ago
Reply to  Freddy

Looking at official data from the US, the group 65+ accounts for 16.5% of population and for 79.7% of Covid-19 deaths (as of Nov. 28th).
Even if not going over and above numbers in their abstract form, it means 20.3% of deaths occur in people aged 64 and below.
What is a life worth anyways?

1 month ago

At this time I am going to do my breakfast, later than having my breakfast coming over again to read further news.

kicnbac
1 month ago

COVID seems to be a cure for flu, heart attacks, car accidents, and homicides.

Freddy
1 month ago

In an article at http://www.mercola.com yesterday Johns Hopkins plans to vaccinate ethnic minorities and mentally challenged first which means politicians will be first since most are mentally challenged already. Does Tuskegee sound familiar?

George P. Burdell
1 month ago
Reply to  Freddy

I’ve been waiting for someone to say the word Tuskegee. It’s a good one, can’t wait for the vax shaming to begin. Pure gold….

foneguy2
1 month ago

Comparison of several midwestern states with various mask and mitigation policies yet the results are very similar

https://twitter.com/IAmTheActualET/status/1333906192503017474?s=20

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  foneguy2

Of course there are seasonal factors and other variables over which there is limited or no control but are you arguing that the states that had more lax attitudes on the spectrum reached their peaks more rapidly (and much higher) as a proof that sensible restrictions don’t work? ?!

MB
1 month ago

I think he’s saying that the proof that sensible restrictions dont work is the proof that sensible restrictions dont work.

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  MB

As a result of this line of circular thinking, out of all developed and large countries, the US has been reporting the highest Covid deaths per capita since last May, by far, even considering the high-mortality countries. So using masks and sensible as well effective policies in the US explains that?

MeB
1 month ago

Thats not accurate.
USA covid deaths 286,443 population 328.2m = .087%
UK covid deaths 62,033 population 66.65m = .093%

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  MeB

“since last May”…
Picking starting and end points can be arbitrary.
From February 2020 to February 2021 should be instructive.

MeB
30 days ago

You want me to project into the future?
I’m not cherry picking, I’m using the NYT statistics from March 1 to YTD.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

foneguy2
1 month ago

Looking for possible explanations how 8 states in a similar area of the country with varying degrees of mitigation policies and social restrictions could produce similar results literally days apart.

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  foneguy2

There are no definitive answers here, only humble attempts at explanations. Forget the theatrical politics for a minute and think of the virus spread as a forest fire in the wild (need to take into account the fuel (wood etc), the underlying conditions (temperature, humidity etc) and facilitating factors (wind etc)). Then throw in human factors (long standing policy around forest and wildfire prevention and management, humans starting fires, humans building at the wild-urban interface and humans pointing fingers when disaster happens). Conclusion, invariably forest fires will tend to happen. Humans, individually or collectively, can influence the outcome either way… Read more »

The Truth Hurts
1 month ago

“However, the US could have done much better.” Yes they could have have recognized that US citizens will never accept the same lockdown rules that other countries willingly follow. They could have recognized that shutting down restaurants and bars will only cause people to gather in friends homes or young kids throwing large hotel parties. Our leaders could have recognized that if half the population has no intention of locking themselves up and hiding then there is no point in destroying the economy. I also find your comment interesting around political theatrics but then later you bring up the spread… Read more »

Foreign observer
1 month ago

Of course it’s political but that shouldn’t prevent an independent thinker to come to the conclusion, for example, that school closures and inefficiently applied basic measures to contain and limit spread are both dangerous. Is the art of constructive and bipartisan compromises a species at risk of extinction?
Why is it that so many people take positions, not through intrinsic thinking but based on tribal thinking?
There is a lot of alienation going on (from unresponsive corporations and disconnected governments) and communities are suffering.
i’m not sure social media is helping..
Good luck.

Fur
1 month ago
Last edited 1 month ago by Fur
Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  Fur

The person’s take on various topics is interesting but his analysis tends to be biased in a typical pattern, he does not use a balanced approach to numbers and he’s made some conclusions which turned out to be very wrong. -On the PCR test, he uses inputs that tend to inflate false positives. A balanced review shows that false positives are much lower, especially when prevalence is high as confirmed by rising cases and matching hospitalizations and deaths. -On the Sweden approach, 1 month ago, he concluded that rise in hospitalization would be less impressive than in the spring. Since… Read more »

Freddy
1 month ago
Reply to  Fur

According to Dr. Fauci in This Week in Virology he states “If you get a cycle threshold of 35 or more the chances of it being replication-confident are minuscule. You almost never can culture a virus from a 37 cycle or even 36”
According to some reports 17 cycle is most accurate. So basically when is Covid, Covid?

Freddy
1 month ago

Here’s something that crossed my mind to look into. In Japan there have only been 2,119 deaths from Covid according to Worldometer Population of Japan is 126M with 148K Covid cases. That would be approx 5,500 deaths in US population adjusted. So I looked into their diet. They eat foods like seaweed which is high in iodine and diet rich in seafood which is high in Omega 3’s. So higher intake of iodine may be a deterrent to Covid. Japan’s iodine intake is up to 10 times ours. At http://www.pubmed.gov there is an article “Iodine a Preventative and Curative Agent… Read more »

Indrenb
1 month ago
Reply to  Freddy

Supposedly it is more about the Vitamin K found in foods like natto.

Freddy
1 month ago
Reply to  Indrenb

Very possible. What seems to protect them is something they eat on a regular basis. Natto is a very potent blood clot dissolving protein and Omega 3’s helps with both the innate and adaptive immune system plus helps regulate cytokine reactions as does Vitamin D. Whatever it may be it is simple but according to our government only a vaccine will help never any talk about nutrition. At http://www.mercola.com they speak about this daily.

Indrenb
1 month ago
Reply to  Freddy

Well at least you can say that out loud. Heaven forbid anyone should point out that not being chronically obese and diabetic would help dramatically…

MeB
1 month ago
Reply to  Freddy

Japan also wears kimonos at a rate 50 times higher than the US. It therefore follows that kimonos prevent Covid-19.

kicnbac
1 month ago

Sick of this fake news. What happen to the flu. Did COVID cure it?

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  kicnbac

Flu numbers appear to be down across the board. Can you guess why?
Respiratory viruses can sometimes compete each other, ie as an individual can benefit from being sick from one virus at the expense of another but data shows that Covid and the flu don’t compete very well and co-infections having been reported with more than additive health impacts.
How do you heal from fake news? Hint: second-level thinking required.

Freddy
1 month ago

According to reports from CIDRAP (Centers for infectious disease research and policy) flu cases in Australia are down approx 99% due to social distancing/hand washing/face coverings/restricted travel/etc. It should be a somewhat mild flu season this year.

Hank Scorpio
1 month ago
foneguy2
1 month ago

This is for speculation – longshot but is it possible ?

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Admin
1 month ago
Reply to  foneguy2

Absolutely! That’s not speculation but is the direct implication of official numbers. In fact, it would be sooner than that. CDC says the ratio of actual cases to reported cases is 11, not 10. And many think herd immunity takes less than 70%. We wrote about this here a couple weeks ago: https://wirepoints.org/give-us-better-data-and-projections-with-covid-19-cases-soaring-officially-reported-information-is-increasingly-useless-wirepoints/

Keep in mind that’s not like some magic date. As you approach that date, new infections gradually drop off so it’s a curve. In fact, that should already be kicking in, and perhaps it is.

Last edited 1 month ago by Mark Glennon
Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

That is interesting. The ratio is still subject to a fair level of uncertainty and it is reasonable to use the working hypothesis that herd immunity is a dynamic and functional concept which depends on behaviors (spontaneous by individuals and mandated collectively) so that herd immunity for a given population which has no restrictions is different (need higher levels of immunity then) versus a population which is associated with restrictions in social mobility, contacts etc. Still, under present conditions, it is likely that places like Illinois have started to reach herd immunity and will reach materially higher levels in the… Read more »

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Admin
1 month ago

Yes. Be aware that if herd immunity is already kicking in as those numbers say it should be, then that 11:1 ratio should be dropping, which is why the whole thing is a gradual curve.

joe the plumber
1 month ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

Kudos to DeVore for his nomination to the grifter hall of fame. Never wins a case but gets chumps to hire him. Owning the libs by filing frivolous lawsuits.LULZ

joe the plumber
1 month ago

Grifter Devore refusing to pay the $1000 bounty he offered. Claims he did not know the Guv had a daughter when Grifter posted a photo of her and personally attacked. Just when I thought I could not possible think less of Grifter Devore – there he goes

Randy Wilmette
1 month ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

Are you saying 6.6m people in Illinois have already had covid? More than half the population?

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Admin
1 month ago
Reply to  Randy Wilmette

I am saying that is what the official numbers imply. (IL number of cases X CDC’s multiplier of 11 to get to actual total unreported). Maybe their numbers are wrong, but those are their numbers.

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

The numbers are educated guests at best. It’s a real possibility that the multiplier at large will end up much lower (lower end of the range) because the virus spread caused an unusual focus and a lot more testing as the sought after low percent positive rate has never been really in sight. A very strong aspect supporting that view is that antibody levels at the population levels has never reached close to 70%, even in hard-hit areas. Sweden, which, on a spectrum, has had slightly less restrictions on individual activity (accepting more spread by intent) just released antibody studies… Read more »

RandyWilmette
1 month ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

You guys love data, just like I do; but sometimes you need a gut check on your numbers. There is no way >50% of the population has been infected. No serious professional has said anything close to that. I had a nice chat with Ted yesterday on the phone. My critique of you guys is that you keep moving the goal posts without acknowledging: 1) you moved the goalpost 2) you were wrong in you last assessment. Ted rightly posted that the only 2 data points that matter are hospitalizations and deaths, and when he posted they were low. He… Read more »

MB
1 month ago
Reply to  RandyWilmette

He’s not wrong. The antibody data, such as it is, seems to rule out anything like 10x undercounting. That ration might have been true back in April when we werent testing very much, but not now.

Admin
1 month ago
Reply to  RandyWilmette

Randy, you are dead wrong. Read what we have said. We said the official numbers imply that well over half of the state would be immune, and that is unquestionably correct, just a matter of multiplying two numbers — the total number of officially reported cases times 11 (which is the CDC’s own number for the ratio of actual cases to reported ones}. HOWEVER, my earlier article on that went to lengths explaining why that number is surely wrong. The point, however, is that herd immunity should be kicking in to some degree, but nobody gives us the number of… Read more »

The Truth Hurts
1 month ago
Reply to  RandyWilmette

There is no way >50% of the population has been infected. No serious professional has said anything close to that.”

Interesting statement considering back in early October a Northwestern study estimated about 20% of Chicago had antibodies. Considering that almost 60% of our total covid cases have occurred after the study I’m not sure that a 50% estimate warrants a “no way”. If anything 50% seems to be a pretty decent betting line.

Foreign observer
1 month ago

The ratio of ‘true’ number of cases over number of positive test cases is still subject to considerable uncertainty (ratio 3 to 25). The Northwestern study mentioned has limitations and in no way provides a definite answer; they suggest a 16x ratio. There’s another recently published study which also has limitations but suggests a ratio of 4 to 6, with antibody prevalence around 5 to 6% in Illinois by the end of the summer. Estimated SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in the US as of September 2020 | Infectious Diseases | JAMA Internal Medicine | JAMA Network Your state, like many other areas… Read more »

Admin
1 month ago

Yes, my take on it is same as yours.

BLS
1 month ago
Reply to  RandyWilmette

Wirepoints seeks the truth by cutting through the BS and providing context to data/statistics (which are otherwise worthless). They understand that lockdown measures and pandemic hysteria do more harm than good (finance/econ backgrounds help here significantly – something that epidemiologists and doctors generally lack). Wirepoints has been consistent while MSM obscures the truth and pushes an agenda. I hope and pray that more and more people wake up out there and think for themselves and not let the controlled MSM outlets influence their decisions and behavior. The burden of proof is on everyone pushing lockdown — every rock I’ve uncovered… Read more »

The Truth Hurts
1 month ago
Reply to  foneguy2

I have been telling friends this since we broke 10k cases per day. At 13k average per day over 14 days and an actual infection rate 11 times higher we are talking about 2 million active cases (1 in 6) right now in the state of Illinois. Add in prior infections with immunity and we should see a major decline in cases. Of course all of this assumes the data we are being provided is accurate. Since it’s speculated that false positives could be around 40% I would expect positive cases to continue for 4-6 weeks after people are truly… Read more »

Foreign observer
1 month ago

If you are working with the hypothesis that disease prevalence is high (ie reaching herd immunity), as exemplified by areas which are showing decline of cases after one or two surges and as supported by high percent positive rates, then the rate of false positives is likely very low. The rate of false positives is high if one uses higher Ct-cycle values for threshold when disease prevalence is low, especially below 1 to 2%. You can’t have it both ways saying that the virus does not exist and is everywhere at the same time, depending on what you are aiming… Read more »

The Truth Hurts
1 month ago

“You can’t have it both ways saying that the virus does not exist and is everywhere at the same time, depending on what you are aiming to ‘prove’.” Where did I say the virus doesn’t exists? I know people that are in the hospital fighting this disease. You can also have false positives when someone is infected and then test positive six weeks later. Prevalence would show as high because people continue to test positive well after the virus is gone. Maybe you don’t consider these false positives but for policy making purposes it does count. My point is that… Read more »

Foreign observer
1 month ago

Sounds reasonable. Consideration should be given for gradual adjustments, perhaps over a few weeks because of the embedded uncertainty of positive test numbers and because of the dynamic nature of herd immunity.
There is some sense in the argument that restrictions (individual and otherwise) should be directionally down once the positive test rates get below 5%, especially for the low risk groups.
It looks like we’ll find out soon.
In my area, compromises are being reached for the end of the year, subject to adjustments if trends change (they have before).

RandyWilmette
1 month ago

1) What metric will you use to know if you are right about herd immunity?

2) Did you ever run a model using your 10x assumption to project hospitalization?

Jj
1 month ago

Look up Egypt’s standard of care.. azithro zinc vit c lactoferin NAC…. but the kicker is they have been using Invermectin and have seen mortality rates drop to essentially zero. If given to the gravely ill the mortality rate still is around 2 percent. If you own a dog, it’s more than likely you have Invermectin in your house(Heartguard). It’s helps prevent them getting heart worm(parasite)which is contracted by the bite of an infected mosquito. egypts mortality rate is about 1/10 of ours. And that was before the introduction of invermectin. Study isn’t peer reviewed yet, but it sure is… Read more »

Jj
1 month ago
Reply to  Jj

Typo…Ivermectin, not Invermectin. Japan uses it as well, and Australia is running trials on health care workers ….not a peep about it in this country. It looks like one dose is all that is needed, but that’s still up for review.
.

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  Jj

That’s interesting and certainly worth studying according to well established criteria in order to better define effectiveness and safety profile.
This drug is a topic i’ve discussed with many people from many parts of the world.
An interesting aspect is that the large majority of people i’ve spoken to about this medication firmly believe that non-pharma prevention methods are useless and that public health bodies intentionally prevent great and simple cures to access markets in order to better control society?
Is that your opinion also?

Freddy
1 month ago
Reply to  Jj

Agreed. Alternative measures to treat underlying conditions for disease are rarely addressed by main street media only drugs that treat the symptoms only but rarely if ever can cure anything. Example-With all the blood pressure medicines on the market does any of them “cure” high BP? None that I’m aware of. Of course diet and exercise are the best remedies. Are you aware of the benefits of Oil of Oregano? It is considered antibacterial-antivirul-anti parasitic used for a variety of conditions including MRSA-Candida-Oral Thrush/respiratory symptoms. Only a few drops in a little water. (not the entire bottle) Keep out of… Read more »

leaving town
1 month ago
Reply to  Jj

Market-Ticker has the study linked at his sight.

Fed up
1 month ago

See how they fudge the numbers to justify their communist decrees. Look at the icu bed use, the open hospital beds, open icu beds, etc. pull the number of beds in icu and overall in general that are available and you get a chart that is manipulated Look at the difference from nov 18 to the 19th.

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  Fed up

This comment is misinformation and reflects poor understanding about how things work on the ground. Potential bed capacity does not reflect the reality if you don’t take into consideration if the hospital beds are truly available on short notice and if the beds and equipment could be made functional with adequate staff. i don’t have feet on the ground in Chicago hospitals and bureaucracy can be a huge problem but these adjustments have to be made when preparing contingency plans. The adjustments that they made make perfect sense if you look at the numbers and analyze their process. One thing… Read more »

Fed up
1 month ago

You work for pritzker? Or are you part of the corrupt health care administrative boondoggle. Do you know how to critically analyze data? If you did, you’d pick up the manipulation and fraud in the coding, testing, capacity, etc etc. pipe down and go find a high school math student to help you with the data..rampant fraud, particularly in the testing and coding in the hospitals.

Heywood Jeblomi
1 month ago

He’s not arguing that. What he is arguing is that the ICU bed Capacity just mysteriously dropped 400 overnight and the overall hospital bed capacity dropped by 2000. Did dozens of hospitals close yesterday? Sure helps the narrative that we are running out of space quickly.

Foreign observer
1 month ago

This applies to Fed up also. Listen, i’m only trying to help and have practical experience (on the ground) and have had to collaborate (this could mean to kind of resist or fight with decision makers) with hospital managers and public policy leaders. In theory, there is a margin of excess capacity but, in practice and for a variety of reasons including limited qualified personnel issues, the practical excess capacity is often less than in theory and if, you are in charge, you have to think about that. Think like a CEO for the thought process without being blinded by… Read more »

Heywood Jeblomi
1 month ago

Just wondering how the bed capacity decreased drastically overnight. Nothing more, nothing less. Its been pretty consistent for the whole pandemic. In general if we are making adjustments (canceling elective surgeries, etc.) We should have more beds avaliable, not less.

Foreign observer
1 month ago

Again, all i’m saying is that it makes sense if you have on-the-ground experience but you are allowed a different opinion. You may want to think of it the same way in relation to borrowing capacity with your banker. You may start with a theoretical capacity but, when you meet the banker in person for a specific need, the banker will be influenced by very concrete and practical aspects of of credit analysis (collateral, covenant, capacity and character etc) and your true available borrowing capacity may end up lower than thought before there was a need. What is clear from… Read more »

Heywood Jeblomi
1 month ago

The question still stands. I’m not talking about bankers. I’m talking about hospital beds. If someone can give me an actual explanation, I’ll be fine with it.

Foreign observer
1 month ago

OK. My regional hospital has, as of now, 432 as official capacity listed in official government documents. The number of hospitalized patients is typically less than that. If you had specifically asked them (managers) a year ago to supply a number of beds ready for immediate use, the number would have been lower than 432, perhaps around 400 because a functioning hospital bed needs a complement of equipment and personnel that varies according to need. If the ward that is available has been used for geriatric care in the past, the ward could not be automatically be opened and functional… Read more »

Heywood Jeblomi
1 month ago

Its doesn’t help at all. We are not talking about your hospital. We are talking about the state of Illinois and this data covers all of them. The narrative about one specific hospital doesn’t explain why 400 ICU beds and 2000 hospital beds disappeared overnight across the state. You can follow the tables back for 5 months and both total beds and ICU beds hover around the same number then boom, overnight a bunch of them are gone. Can someone else please help? Based on this information, decisions are made about opening and closing peoples businesses, whether or not to… Read more »

Foreign observer
1 month ago

i just spent 3 minutes looking for relevant info coming from Illinois, including from hospitals (i could even phone key people on the ground but it’s not even necessary) and the shared info about my area applies to your area as well.
i found this also:
https://www.mdjonline.com/neighbor_newspapers/extra/news/illinois-hospital-capacity-metrics-change/video_3404c3f7-185b-5d6b-915f-0e47e343fc35.html
First impression: your Governor sounds like a clown but the MD appears caring and competent. If you can’t stand the ‘narrative’ think like a competent CEO who has to keep on making decisions (sometimes wrong) based on incomplete and dynamic sets of data.

Bill
1 month ago

Our Gov is a clown, he is one of the worst leaders I have ever seen

Fed up neighbor
1 month ago
Reply to  Bill

Leader is stretching it

Captain Clarence Oveur
1 month ago

Dude has never stretched a day in his life.

Bill
1 month ago

You are right, I had a tough time writing that word for him

anonymous
1 month ago
Reply to  Bill

Leader? I guess I am supposed to laugh right now.

Heywood Jeblomi
1 month ago

Thank you. That article is something that truly provides insight as to what is going on. It unfortunately does not inspire any confidence in the state’s thought process around handing what is going on. The governor basically called the data “subjctive” which is again a serious problem when he is making decisions that will effect millions of lives. The mean reason for me even posting is that politicians across the country need to do a better job of focusing on preventing the greatest number of deaths whether from Covid or not and whether in the near term or far term.… Read more »

Foreign observer
1 month ago

We do live in a world with limited resources and while the pie has had a tendency to keep growing, this is about compromises and trade-offs. For Covid, evidence is shaping up to show that 50 to 55% of deaths will have occurred in people 79 and younger. For the typical person reaching 80, the residual life expectancy is about 10 years. While the 80+ dying from Covid likely have, on average, about half of that residual life expectancy, your society (like mine) have made a collective bargain to channel most healthcare dollars into the last years of life and… Read more »

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joe the plumber
1 month ago

How dare you try confuse the mouth breathers with facts!

Ken
1 month ago

How many of you have had Covid?

I had it.

It’s not fun but isn’t the killer that they said it would be.

Get over it.

Herd Immunity that’s what will save you.

Don’t believe the Urban Legends.

This virus will turn out to be a bad flu year.

Last edited 1 month ago by Ken
Bill
1 month ago
Reply to  Ken

Exactly Ken, thanks for chiming in

Bill
1 month ago

CDC just came out and said don’t travel during Thanksgiving. Can the CDC and all these politicians please stop telling us what we can’t do. I am so tired of hearing this come out of their mouths. No positive comments for the last 9 months. Last time I checked we are Americans and we are free, at least I think we are. Everything in life is a choice and the reason we live here is because we have that choice, so let us choose. We all need to rise up as a people against anymore restrictions, they don’t work and… Read more »

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  Bill

While ‘costs’ have to be considered as well, ‘measures’ (from individual to together-type) have clearly been shown to work when applied in a timely and competent fashion. Look at the ‘performance’ between regions, states and countries etc If ideologically sensitive, you may want to consider this as a CEO overseeing a few hundred employees. You want to introduce ‘measures’ and encourage behaviors that will minimize costs and maximize benefits. For the good of the business, you may even need to close that business for a while, especially if you mismanaged early on. It’s unfortunate that by the time vaccines get… Read more »

Bill
1 month ago

Bro, you are replying to everyone’s post, you aren’t even addressing the comment. Look, common sense has to take over. We shut down for nearly 2 months, numbers went down then they didn’t start going up until Oct-Nov timeframe, we can keep doing this for years but the virus will not disappear, we will have peaks and valleys, that is how viruses work, the flu, colds, etc…. We don’t shut down the country for the flu, obesity, heart attacks, car accidents that kill thousands each year, come on man. I know this stuff is not contagious but come on man,… Read more »

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  Bill

Common sense says that Illinois has excess mortality tied to Covid which is staggering. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm See Illinois This is not the flu. This is a new virus for which there was no significant natural immunity to start with and for which treatments work only partially (that’s why the hospitals tend to get overwhelmed). That’s also why the US will end up with about 6 to 8x the usual yearly flu death toll. ‘Your’ healthcare is close to being 50% government subsidized and please send your memo to hospital administrators who typically spend the healthcare dollars on older people who have… Read more »

Bill
1 month ago

You want to be locked down go for it, never even addressed my facts about the Villages. You say life in Chicago would pretty much be back to normal if we did the right thing, you don’t know that, just like all these estimates these models did, they were all wrong and continue to be, I am dealing in facts, you are dealing in what ifs again. You sound like you are against the free market. The government was never intended to control our lives, if you don’t like the Capitalist society then move my man, go to another country… Read more »

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  Bill

Listen, i’m only trying to help. You don’t have to make an effort.
Do you realize that, in the US, today, 1971 deaths were reported? The average years of life lost is likely close to 10 years per individual and there are 80,698 who are currently hospitalized including 6,037 in Illinois and including 587 in Illinois with a tube down their throat.
This is not a freedom or control question, it’s based on what a civilized society should do when faced with a new threat.

Bill
1 month ago

I understand all that but this is a virus, it is not going away, it isn’t going to disappear if we lock down for ???, pick a number. That is the common sense part. This is here to stay. The IDPH doctor said yesterday the most infected group are 20-29 year olds but the people dying are 70 and above. So what does that tell me? Protect those people, focus on them not on shutting everyone down. I know the facts but you don’t address anything I said, when you brought up the free market I see who you are,… Read more »

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  Bill

i’m not in the US and i look up to your country, in general. My area has not done well, especially in the early phase (high health impact and high economic cost) and what i feel is shame. To compensate, i’m directly involved in on-the-ground mitigation efforts, support sensible government actions, push for private solutions and am involved in my community. Your area is on its way to herd immunity (a few months away) and you will report one of the highest costs (lives, disease and economic costs) compared to many comparable areas in the world. The more one waits… Read more »

President-Elect George P. Burdell
1 month ago

I’ll give you credit where credit is due. This is not the flu. We have eradicated the flu, don’t you know that? No one gets the flu anymore.

Foreign observer
1 month ago

Is this serious? Do you think that temporary refrigerated morgues used in many places is fake news?

President-Elect George P. Burdell
1 month ago

I am serious. Where are these refrigerated morgues? Who occupied them? What was their cause of death? Why isn’t the media ON SITE reporting this dire situation?

Were you this concerned in 2008? https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/

Are you at all concerned with the fact that more people will die due to the lockdowns than any Coronavirus this year?

President-Elect George P. Burdell
1 month ago

*2018*

Foreign observer
1 month ago

The use of refrigerated morgues has been a recurrent theme with the El Paso TX area as the last example. Flu episodes vary every year (even if the long term trend is down overall) and during the year mentioned it was slightly more than usual but it was a fraction of excess mortality reported this year due to COVID. See the CDC excess mortality data. It’s for real. From all credible sources, most of the excess mortality to a very significant degree happened due to Covid. The spontaneous restrictions (from individuals) to the virus and the various government actions are… Read more »

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carol jones
1 month ago
Reply to  Bill

Dont be a baby and dont be selfish. Its not always all about you.

Bill
1 month ago
Reply to  carol jones

What are you even talking about, how about some context

NoHope4Illinois
1 month ago
Reply to  Bill

It’s nearly all Democrats to – It’s their narrative to continue to exert the unwarranted and illegal use of emergency powers.

Bill
1 month ago

There is no doubt about that, the bottom line is this, we should always have the choice. I have no problem the people that want to lock themselves down, but don’t put that on the people that don’t want to be locked down. One more thing, if you are for lockdowns and/or locking yourself down then you better not be shopping at Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowes, any grocery store, Home Goods, TJ Max, etc….you can get everything delivered. You can’t have it both ways, being locked down but I think I will go shopping today, you know these people… Read more »

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  Bill

From an outsider perspective, there appear to be two crowds. One crowd who think they suffer because the other half is killing the economy and the other half who think they suffer because the other one is killing people. Your country has faced similar (and much bigger) challenges before but what is humbling (IMO) is the polarization and failure to reach reasonable compromises for the way forward. Why is that? Again, it may help to focus on data and rational analysis and avoid tribal thinking. An amazing aspect is that the ‘left-liberal’ crowd depends heavily on the animal spirits of… Read more »

Bill
1 month ago

Bro, you aren’t even in this country, Americans don’t think like you, that is the difference. As a matter of fact, I have been all over the world and Americans think differently, period. We believe in freedom, free choice and the government stays out of our business. It is sad how polarized we are, on both sides. This is a direct result of taking God out of all conversations. This country was founded on Christian principles, if we followed Jesus example we would be more tolerant of people and at least listen to all sides, but the left has gotten… Read more »

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  Bill

Thank you. Your reply helps me to understand the situation you’re in. BTW, i live about an hour from the US border.

Bill
1 month ago

You are welcome, thanks for clarifying where you are at. Hopefully we can look back on this time and learn from it, that is what I am hoping and praying for

Freddy
1 month ago

Interesting articles today at http://www.Mercola.com and http://www.naturalnews.com about PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests. If the PCR test threshold of 35 cycles or higher the probability that said person is infected is 3% or 97% chance the result is a False positive. At Mercola they have an older interview with Dr. Fauci from This week in Virology 641 July 16,2020 and he states “If you get a cycle threshold of 35 or more the chances of it being replication confident are minuscule. You almost never can culture a virus from a 37 threshold cycle or even 36” Dr Fauci So it… Read more »

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  Freddy

When determining a CT-cycle threshold, it’s a balancing act between not missing a case and a false positive and the implications are different for the individual and for the population as a group. As an individual you hope that your disease is not missed. For the population level, there is an aspect related to efficiency. Overall, the PCR threshold deals well with these potentially conflicting objectives. Most of the positive cases pass the threshold much lower than the indeterminate zone referred to. Also, the higher false positive rates in the indeterminate zone is really a problem in areas where the… Read more »

Chris
1 month ago

So Hospitalizations are WAY up, now exceeding the early peak in the spring, but hospital bed capacity, ICU, and ventilator availability is steady…hmmmm…does this mean people receive a positive test, feel symptoms, and go to the hospital and get discharged???…does “Hospitalizations” mean “checked-in only”, or do you have to be in a bed, because this doesn’t seem to make sense. Can someone explain?

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  Chris

2 things 1-Capacity is a dynamic concept on an absolute level. Capacity can be increased (open a previously closed ward, transform a unit into an ICU care area, buy equipment etc). Illinois, like many other places, have increased capacity that way. 2-Capacity is a dynamic concept on a relative level. Capacity for Covid cases can increase at the expense of other non-Covid cases. This can clearly happen for elective procedures but can also involve other semi-urgent cases. In my area at some point, there was a building threat for ICU capacity and canceling or post-posting open heart procedures helped to… Read more »

Chris
1 month ago

Thanks, but I don’t think this answers my question: Hospital Bed, ICU, and Ventilator QUANTITIES (not a percentage or relative) have been flat since they were ramped up in June. Right now, for the past few weeks, “Hospitalizations” Quantity (not percentage) is WAAAY up to approx 12,000 Yet the Covid use of Hospital Beds, ICU, and Ventilators have upticked only slightly, and mostly eaten into the total use of Hospital Beds, ICU, and Ventilators, while they total capacity of each has remained mostly flat QUANTITIES (no account for “opening wards, increasing capacity”) Of the 12,000 Hospitalizations, there are use of… Read more »

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  Chris

Your reading of the numbers is confusing.
Where do you get 12,000 hospitalizations?
Total COVID patients currently hospitalized=5953 as of Nov 17th.
Total hospital beds include ICU beds in the data presented.

RN, MSN
1 month ago
Reply to  Chris

Yes, some patients are indeed cycling through the hospital. Staying one, two to three days and discharged to home. There are some who do need the ICU because of severe conditions. Most are elderly or have a chronic condition that makes them vulnerable to infections. I know this from experience.

Freddy
1 month ago

Just checked the http://www.wifr.com website here in Rockford. The 97 deaths reported thru out the state recently 60 of the fatalities were age 80’s to 90’s including 2 at listed at 100+. The rest scattered from 30’s to 70’s. I still ask what is the common link besides old age? Medication side effects/severe nutrient depletion like Vit D-zinc/B vitamins/magnesium/smokers or vaping? Were they on statins/PPI’s/BP and diabetic meds which depleted over time their essential nutrients. Just repleting nutrients to optimum levels if on these meds may be the difference between mild and severe cases. Ask yourself when was the last… Read more »

Taxpaying Cititzen
1 month ago

The IDPH hospitalization/utilization footnotes for COVID-19 is informative (click statewide hospital statistics1). CV19 hospitalizations and ICU counts are categorized with PUI’s (persons under investigation). The site only provides CV19 + PUI patients. The data does not breakdown patients into categories of CV19, PUI, and comorbidities with CV19.

Last edited 1 month ago by Taxpaying Cititzen
Susan
1 month ago

Covid was planned by the Rockefeller and Bill Gates. They are trying to reset the economy with digital money. They are trying to make everyone get vaccinated. It is a total scam. Find the book on Amazon called Controlled Demolition Of The American Empire and grab an extra copy for a lawyer to see. Don’t fall for this hoax to enslave humanity.

Fed up neighbor
1 month ago
Reply to  Susan

Went on renegade inc, read a brief short by Charlie Robinson about the book. All I can say by not reading the full book, WE ARE ALL SCREWED.

The Truth Hurts
1 month ago
Reply to  Susan

“Covid was planned by the Rockefeller and Bill Gates”

This site does a great job providing important information about financial topics democrats don’t want to discuss but it sure does bring out the tin foil hat crowd. Be careful Susan, black helicopters are hovering over your house.

Thee Jabroni
2 months ago

Lies ,exagerated stats and propaganda,im a scary bitch and im gonna wear my mask in my car while driving by myself,what a bunch of clueless,weak sheep in this state!-yes mr pritzker,even though we have all been wearing masks you can lock down the state and close my business!-i ll do whatever you say mr pritzker,even though no state or chicago employees have felt the pinch,-freakin weak cowards in chicago and illinois!

Juicy Smollier
1 month ago
Reply to  Thee Jabroni

LOL, so stupid. That’s what statist and anti family Dems give you – and the people they pay off to boot.

Foreign observer
2 months ago

Came here by chance and the data as well as conclusions are interesting. A lot of food for thought. From the data presented, the comments and the overall picture: -there are many people who are simply clueless -there are many people who distort the little knowledge they have -there are many people who are blindly driven by extreme tribal ideology and bizarre conspiracy theories However, the data and analysis, as presented, is helpful to build a case against policies applied at large. The basic problem with opening up the economy while “protecting” the at-risk groups is that it would have… Read more »

Juicy Smollier
1 month ago

At least things wrong with your assumptions. Who says there would be any increase at all in an open economy? Not science, just you. In fact, we see little change in the nature of the virus, which would be predicted if we actually applied what we already KNOW about coronaviruses and respiratory viruses in general. “Opening up as the “Great Barrington” proposed would have resulted in even more morbidity and mortality at large and would have been associated with an even larger and broader ‘economic’ cost.” Incorrect again. We paid a huge price already, and will continue, and people like… Read more »

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  Juicy Smollier

It’s not politics, it’s basic biology, basic reasoning and common sense. Limiting the spread of the virus AND related direct and indirect consequences required intelligent policies and individual decision-making to limit the biological effects while limiting economic costs. Some areas got it better than others. It’s disappointing to see people pushing for strategies that maximize deaths and complications and also economic costs in the end. Compare states, countries etc
By the time the US gets vaccines on a large scale, many will not be interested in having it and you will have reached almost herd immunity in practice..

Taxpaying Cititzen
1 month ago

Are viruses necessary for human survival? In the long-term, are lockdowns and masking doing more harm than good? Are we disrupting our biologic microbiomes balance from over-disinfecting surfaces, masking, limit contact with family, friends and our communities? Are we weakening our organ functions and immune systems that are necessary for human survival? Meet the trillions of viruses that makeup your virome is an interesting read about the human symbiotic relationship with viruses, biologic evolution and inter-dependency. It has been estimated that there are over 380 trillion viruses inhabiting us. (…) Viruses of the human microbiome provide evolutionary advantages to some… Read more »

Last edited 1 month ago by Taxpaying Cititzen
Foreign observer
1 month ago

Then there’s no point about prevention, vaccines and treatments if the idea is to let nature run its course. This is a new genetic form of a virus that is highly contagious and that causes to be sick, be hospitalized and kills an unusually high number of people in the general population. Semmelweis was ridiculed for his advice to wash hands and some suggested: why bother? … Over history, humans have “progressed”, often at the expense of other species and organisms. Human cooperation and collaboration can be helpful. But then again, there are people suggesting that hunters and gatherers were… Read more »

RN, MSN
1 month ago

“From the data presented, the comments and the overall picture:
-there are many people who are simply clueless
-there are many people who distort the little knowledge they have
-there are many people who are blindly driven by extreme tribal ideology and bizarre conspiracy theories”

Yup that’s you in a nutshell.

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  RN, MSN

The typical reaction of challenged individuals with poor objective arguments based on objective data and logical reasoning is to revert primitively to personal attacks.
The easy thing would be to do the same but i won’t as thinking requires at least minimal effort.
The reason i came here was to understand better because Illinois is facing unusual challenges: fiscal, population leaving etc and your reply helps to understand.

RN, MSN
1 month ago

You’re the one that wrote the personal attack. I just copied and sent it back to you.

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  RN, MSN

It was not a personal or individual attack but a comment reflecting the general observation of the thought process expressed in many posts.
If you feel personally attacked, this is your problem.
Please focus on the data and the analysis and i will only use personal attack against you personally in self-defense.

Jj
2 months ago

If people were told the truth on how this is predominantly spread, fecal/oral, they wouldn’t be wearing a dirty mask on their faces. Wash your hands and stop putting your mask on and off. They are not only contributing to the spread, but my guess is they are now contributing to an uptick in respiratory illnesses, I.e. bacterial pneumonia. Covid is essentially a blood clotting bug. We suspected that in March when people were having such low oxygen levels that they should have been dead, yet they were quite alert. Ventilators are for respiratory illnesses not covid. Bravo to all… Read more »

Dr Nemo
2 months ago

In our area, hospitals are packed with Covid patients as much or more so than during the May-June horror show. Surprisingly flat-footed response from the public health people so far. No McCormick place reopening. No tents in the hospital parking lots. Late and muted local and national media reportage so far as well. But a big disaster may be brewing here and not in NYC so the national media don’t much care. The election is over so no need to provide more worshipful coverage to our favored political leaders’ heroic, if perhaps ineffective, measures or to castigate those of the… Read more »

Delores Lynch
2 months ago

I have seen television stations include “probable cases” with confirmed cases in their reports. What are probable cases? Are they included in our positivity rates?

Legend
1 month ago
Reply to  Delores Lynch

Yes probable is included with positive. This was done recently to up the count. Just like deaths is anyone with Covid but actually dies of something else. Hence deaths are also exaggerated

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  Legend

Probable cases are based on thoughtful and relevant clinical criteria when there is no laboratory confirmation. In the sense that if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it’s likely a duck. The completion of a death certificate is based on a rigorous process and accepted practice. Also, the death certificates are reviewed by competent public health officials. Based on a careful review, there are factors that tend to suggest over-reporting and some others that tend to suggest under-reporting. On a net basis, Covid deaths are likely under-reported in the order of about 10 to 20%,… Read more »

anonymous
1 month ago
Reply to  Legend

All the numbers are SO INFLATED.
A cases is when someone is tested.
Jabba likes to have people tested because it goes into his family’s pockets.
There have been those who pass because of a car accident and then posthumously are tested positve. GUESS what MORE Cases!!!

SJ
2 months ago

The information presented here is clearly biased, you consistently misrepresent the recovery (mortality) rate because you don’t remove the open cases where a clinical outcome has not been determined. Only closed cases should be included. The IDPH website clearly explains how to calculate the recovery rate which is 3%. Not the 1.90% reported here. So the actual rate is near double.
https://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/covid19-statistics

The Informer
1 month ago
Reply to  SJ

You’re clearly misinformed. People that I know that have tested positive have been released 10 days after their first symptoms and their families are released without a positive test after 14 days.

Juicy Smollier
1 month ago
Reply to  The Informer

99.5% of people will not die. This is not a health crisis. Never was. Being a fatass is a health crisis, we sure as hell didn’t shut the economy down for that for the last 30 years, now did we? Very telling.

Foreign observer
1 month ago
Reply to  Juicy Smollier

If the excess mortality (essentially all related to the virus on a net basis) this year is not a health crisis, then what is?

Tom Maher
2 months ago

Ted or Glenn, Is it possible to add to and frame your IL COVID-19 analysis with these additions: 1) a category for IL deaths “all causes”? In 2018 the average daily deaths were 301. 2) categorically breakdown the death count for SARS-CoV-2 into two sub-categories strictly attributable to Covid-19 (6% as reported by the CDC) and those Covid-19 deaths attributable to 2.6 or more co-morbidity(ies) the other 94%. As a rough example with 10,000 deaths 600 would be SARS-CoV-2 only and 9,400 would be attributable to metabolic syndrome, obesity, morbid obesity and other causes. https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/metabolic-syndrome/symptoms-causes/syc-20351916 A review of demographic breakdowns… Read more »

Bill
2 months ago

Remember everyone the politicians work for us, we don’t work for them as much as they want us to. The people that voted for JB can lock themselves in their house. Us that didn’t live our lives. Shutting down only prolongs things, the virus will still be here, we open up the cases go up, you can lock down for 6 months but after that 6 months the virus is still there. Where has all the common sense gone? They say restaurants and bars are spreading the virus but what they don’t provide is the proof of that because what… Read more »

MB
2 months ago

Is there data available on normal cold and flu season spikes in hospital/ICU admissions?