By: Mark Glennon*
How badly have tanking financial markets hurt public pensions?
The Reason Foundation on Tuesday published its 2022 Public Pension Forecaster providing a preview. Their analysis calculates how large the pension losses will be, which depends on how how much turns out to have been lost over the course of the fiscal year on the investments pensions hold. The report is broken down by state and by the major pensions in each state.
Over the next few months, official reports will start appearing on investment losses actually suffered in pensions’ 2022 fiscal year. The new Reason Foundation analysis gives us the initial estimates.
Early indications are that most pensions lost about 6% on their investments over the fiscal year that ended June 30, the foundation says. Illinois, like most states, runs on that calendar, as do state-sponsored pensions.
Those losses, however, get magnified when it comes to the resulting unfunded liability because future return expectations also go down, thanks to the lower, new base value.
For Illinois’ state funded pensions, a -6% return would increase unfunded liabilities from $121 billion in 2021 to $143 billion in 2022, an 18% jump. The unfunded ratio would rise to 58% from 52%.
For the nation as a whole, based on a -6% return for fiscal 2022, the aggregate unfunded liability of state-run public pension plans will be $1.3 trillion, up from $783 billion in 2021, the analysis finds. A -6% return in 2022, the aggregate funded ratio for the all state pension plans would fall from 85% funded in 2021 to 75% funded in 2022.
But it could turn out much worse if the pension assets performed as poorly as the rest of the market — which lost much more than 6%. The S&P 500 stock index lost about 12% for the year that ended June 30. Bonds also faired poorly. For example, IEF, a leading fund containing intermediate term high grade bonds, also lost about 12% for the year.
The Reason Foundation’s chart shown here highlights how unfunded liabilities have risen for Illinois pensions over the years, and the likely increase assuming a 6% loss on assets in 2022.
If it turns out that Illinois pension assets likewise lost 12%, the unfunded liability for Illinois pensions will have risen from $121 billion to $153 billion, according to the foundation. That would be a jump of 26%.
Keep in mind that the analysis only covered Illinois’ four largest pensions. Losses in Illinois’ 662 local municipal pensions and two, smaller, state-sponsored pensions would be additional.
Also keep in mind that the foundation was working off numbers officially reported, which, as we have written, are based on very optimistic assumptions. The assumptions used by Moody’s, the credit rater, are more realistic and more consistent with what private sector pensions use. Moody’s puts the total unfunded liability for Illinois state and local pensions at $530 billion — 75% higher than official numbers.
Finally, a sad lesson is no doubt at hand for governments that have issued pension obligation bonds lately. They borrowed money from the public through those bonds and gave the money to pensions, which in turn invested in the markets. They basically bet that they could earn more in the stock market than they would have to pay in interest on the bonds, as we described here. For example, the Chicago suburb of Skokie borrowed $176 million in January, which was presumably invested just as the markets turned down that month.
Their timing likely will turn out to have been awful.
*Mark Glennon is founder of Wirepoints.
- Related articles from Wirepoints:
- Illinois pension shortfall surpasses $500 billion, average debt burden now $110,000 per household
- Pension obligation bonds prioritize public sector workers, stiff taxpayers
- Pension obligation bonds: Some Illinois city leaders want to gamble with taxpayer funds
- Politicians’ next pension “fix”: Gambling with your money
Expect no retraction or apology. This what they do.
The state’s existing buyout program for its own pensions is the precedent for Chicago, which should be a warning: Look out for similar exaggerated claims and shoddy analysis.
In a span of 11 years, TRS has 30,000 more retirees (all Tier 1) pulling from the pension system and 11,000 less employees contributing. Add another 40,000 due some sort of benefit but no longer contributing. Yikes.
TRS membership 2010: 372,251
Active contributing members = 170,275
Inactive noncontributing members = 104,222
Benefit recipients = 97,754
TRS membership 2021: 432,314
Active contributing members = 159,027
Inactive noncontributing members = 145,769
Benefit recipients = 127,518
That’s why the state must unionize every single occupation
Well, my feeling is that this finally comes to a head when state, county and municipal authorities are no longer able to “pay benefits as they go,” and public employee unions must strong arm Illinois Democrats into using their legislative supermajorities to impose truly Phrryic-victory tax increases on an already overtaxed citizenry. Until there’s not enough money in the kitty to pay monthly public employee union benefits – not just retirement wages, but health care benefits as well – then the “dancing accounting angels on the heads of pins” blather and harrumphery camouflaged as “balanced budgets” will continue unabated. At… Read more »
“Well, my feeling is that this finally comes to a head when state, county and municipal authorities are no longer able to “pay benefits as they go,” So in about 25 – 30 years according to the Illinois policy institutes actuarial stress test, the state would run out of funds and move to pay as you go. Then tax revenue that’s collected would be paid to pensioners first while other services would get less without additional taxes. So in your opinion, taxes would continue to increase and other services would decline for how long after the funds run dry? Maybe… Read more »
That’s essentially how pensions were funded in the 1970s. Of course, the state was growing at the time, which meant more employees, which meant more active members contributing to pensions instead of retired members pulling funds. But, yeah, doing that now that would pretty much consume all operating expenses.
The last I saw, current pension payouts (if pay go) would be about 16 billion per year. The state brought in over 50 billion last year. The state can still raise income taxes, tax retirement income, start taxing services, implement real estate transfer taxes to those selling (and leavings the state) their homes. Plenty of taxes left to increase.
Also, none of this is happening anytime soon.
Last year’s revenue included federal COVID bailout funds. It is deceptive to include the one time emergency funds as part of “what IL brings in each year”. 16 billion plus interest on bonds would amount to about 40% of current revenue. A massive tax increase would be needed. Are you planning to put up border walls to prevent taxpayer escape?
The state brought in $50.3 billion without factoring direct federal aid. That number jumps to $51.1 billion when factoring in COVID federal aid. “A massive tax increase would be needed. Are you planning to put up border walls to prevent taxpayer escape?” The state already pays about $10 billion per year to fund pensions. $6 billion additional would cost you about 1.5 points to the individual income taxes. Taxing retirements could bring in $2 billion. Taxing services could bring in a few billion. They could also start taxing real estate transfers to tax anyone selling their home. Maybe offer a… Read more »
Tax. Tax. Tax. Tax. The government does so well at efficiently using the tax dollars it already receives, we should give it so much more. My gosh, all in the name of saving the sinking pension ship? I’m glad you’re not governor.
A progressive tax will be on the table well before the funds are depleted. Eventually the choice will be a higher flat tax for all or a progressive tax for the “wealthy”. When people are faced with a guaranteed tax increase on themselves they will unfortunately choose a tax for others instead.
The pension plans investments did quite well during the Trump administration, what happened? Asking for a friend.
Another fine discussion about unfunded pension debt. No matter how egregious you may feel those pensions to be, they’ll be much pain in the form of increased taxes before any politician would dare attempt a solution. One thing the state can’t do is tax you if you aren’t here. Make your plans now. Be ready to leave when the taxes are raised to an unacceptable level for you. It is easier than ever to do this as a result of working remotely. There are always trade-offs, but you really don’t need to be part of this if you don’t want… Read more »
The grass is always greener when you leave Illinois
Despite all these personal attacks, there remains an undeniable fact: this state is burning down. While Uncle Sam and Sleepy Joe flooded it with cash that temporarily avoided the fiscal cliff, the coming recession will once again reveal the severity of the problem. Surely you must realize a reckoning is coming when the unfunded liability may leap by over 25% in one year. To put your head in the sand and say, “We’re gettin’ ours no matter what” is remarkable. Depriving other less fortunate citizens of needed services to cover ever growing pension obligations is not a sustainable path forward.… Read more »
Amending the constitution won’t get rid of the debt. Nothing like waiting for a plan that won’t solve the problem. More revenue put into the funds will solve the problem. You just don’t want that because you don’t want to. Hardly a reason. If the state can no longer increase revenue then and only then will you see modest reductions in pensions.
PPF, I do admire your persistence.
Again, you keep defaulting to the IL Supreme Court ruling – “you can’t touch mine.” Review Wirepoints’ public pension solution. An amendment broadens the GA’s ability to reform. Shift from a defined benefit to a defined contribution structure. Require public employees to contribute more toward their own retirement and health benefits. Yea, I’m stuck with what’s been accrued, but you’re paying more for your benefits (like the rest of us). The budget busting underfunding slows down. Essential services gain more breathing room. Win-win-win.
I revert to the ILSC because they laid it out so clearly. Yes they said the pension protection clause protects pensions but they also laid out the contracts clause of both the IL and US constitution. Nothing in any amendment can address this. The only thing removing the clause would do is make it subject to rules altering contracts rather than both the amendment clause and contracts. As this site has pointed out, contracts may be altered if they meet certain criteria. It’s not guaranteed and the ILSC has taken it a step further and addressed the contracts clause in… Read more »
I agree we are not arbiters of pension reform, but we have and share opinions and we are willing to dive into topics important to us. I very much appreciate the depth and content of your response. This makes for a spirited and substantive debate. Thank you. Looking further into Wirepoints’ analysis, we’ll see that Arizona, which had a very similar pension protection clause, succeeded in reform. I won’t cut/paste that legislation, but it hasn’t been challenged, particularly related to the contracts clause, at the state or federal levels. I don’t doubt a reform attempt will be vigorously challenged, particularly… Read more »
Appreciate the response. From my memory the Arizona pension reform is projected to save $1.5 billion by 2045. Now AZ collects only about half the revenue that Illinois collects. Even if you doubled the savings to $3 billion by 2045 that would hardly put a dent in the problem. It’s definitely not drastic action. We are talking about less than $650 for every household in the state over a 30 year period. Less than $22 per year. That’s a heavy political lift for such a little difference. We are talking about AZ indexing pensions COLA increases to inflation with a… Read more »
As PPF stated the problem will start to reduce somewhat naturally as ever more Tier 1 retirees ‘shuffle off to Buffalo’ and meanwhile were replaced by Tier 2 employees. That’s a natural inflection point. To the extent that school district consolidations, educational staff delivery reforms and/or technological changes permit staff reductions meantime that would be a bonus, too. But, those events are not on the horizon just yet. Short of that any proposed lesser-cost benefit changes in the state teachers retirement system will be hard pressed to be allowed to stand legally. The same story applies to all other government… Read more »
James, it’s a dangerous, consistent myth that Tier 2 somehow eventually burns off the liability. The unfunded liabilities are owed to Tier 1s for work already performed. Except for a small sum that Tier 2s are unfairly forced to contribute to the Tier 1 problem, Tier 2 has nothing to do with the liability that must be addressed.
Sorry, mythtake.
Detroit cut pensions “protected” by contract clauses. That city stands on the brink of a new bankruptcy.
Bankruptcy is the primary remedy for unsustainable promises (sometimes called “contracts”). Thus far Illinois has blocked public bankruptcies by failing to approve them and has, accordingly, kicked the can.
Once we overtake the skidding can, we will find that the promises were empty, and the can is flat. Meanwhile, those already retired are consuming what little is left in the storehouse as fast as the ILSC permits.
Eventually maybe the state will allow cities to file for bankruptcy. They have shown no appetite for that even for cities that are decimated and have hardly anything left. What did they do for those cities? They allowed the pension funds to intercept funds that were to be sent to the city. Pensioners are paid first even in these dilapidated cities. Someday you may get the state to allow municipal bankruptcy. A state bankruptcy is a much harder lift. Just be careful what you wish for. Somehow I have a feeling that bondholders and vendors are more likely to get… Read more »
If it’s clear that courts would stop a constitutional amendment and pension reform, why are you so worried about it? Please explain.
I’m not worried about it one bit. Why do you think I posted this comment a few hours ago. “If politicians want to try it should be fun to watch.” I am merely pointing out a different argument than you. Pensioners may some day take a cut but it won’t be done preemptively because we don’t want taxes to increase. I look forward to the day when you can get 36 state senators and 71 house members that support your amendment. It will be great entertainment. Somehow I don’t think it will be the victory that you envision. Now a… Read more »
Because, PPF, for the umpteenth time, if the IL Constitution is amended broadly in the way we have proposed all IL law issues of any kind disappear, including Contract Clause an Pension Clause, leaving it only to review under federal law. And I point to RI because it expressly addressed the federal questions, and in AZ because nobody has even bothered to challenge it because they would lose.
The ILSC didn’t rule on pensions just based on the contracts clause in the Illinois constitution. They clearly reference the US constitution’s contract clause as an impediment. Nothing you propose removes that issue. For the umpteenth time, why would the ILSC sit this one out? You have never explained it. NEVER. Your only statement when pressed is that “our people” don’t believe it will be a problem.
You also somehow believe that the ILSC will allow an amendment that removes contract rights for pensioners but no other residents in Illinois. Pure fantasy.
In addition, because the state’s self-interest is at stake whenever it seeks to modify its own financial obligations, the United States Supreme Court has made clear that it is not appropriate to give the state’s legislature the same deference it would otherwise be afforded with regard to whether the impairment is reasonable and necessary to serve an important public purpose. “A governmental entity can always find a use for extra money,” the Court observed, “especially when taxes do not have to be raised. If a State could reduce its financial obligations whenever it wanted to spend the money for what it regarded as an… Read more »
Your point about there being less leeway to modify contracts when it’s the state’s own obligation that is at stake is correct. But that only supports the point that unreasonable or unnecessary pension cuts would be invalidated under federal law. What you don’t get is that the rules on modifying contracts are self-limiting to what is reasonable and necessary, so that is all IL could do. And I still don’t think you get that an amendment would eliminate all state law issues. Sure, it could get into a state court, but the state court would be applying federal law and… Read more »
You still haven’t answered my question. Would the state allow an amendment that violates the US Constitution? Could Illinois put on the ballot an amendment that states Illinois residents don’t have a right to bear arms? Sure SCOTUS would strike it down but would a state Supreme Court allow it knowing it violates the US constitution? Are you seriously expecting the ILSC to ignore the US constitution? Would they even allow such an amendment to be on the ballot? If you are being honest, you would admit it’s a large hurdle. Also, “And this US Supreme Court, in particular, is… Read more »
No court would allow a state amendment that violates the US Constitution and nobody has proposed one. The legal challenge would come up respecting the subsequent legislation for the specific pension reforms. As for state’s rights, what we would be at issue is an amendment that would have bean approved by the legislature, then approved in a public referendum, with the implementing legislation then approved by the legislature and governor. So, allowing that to go through would be consistent with a broad view of state’s rights; they would want nothing to do with overturning it.
You are proposing an amendment that only takes away contractual rights from pensioners and no other. That would violate the US Constitution. Now if you were proposing taking away contractual rights for all Illinois residents then I might be inclined to think it had a chance. Your proposal is only targeted towards one group. Even then, it would require the ILSC to ignore the US constitution which you’ve said they wouldn’t allow. “No court would allow a state amendment that violates the US Constitution and nobody has proposed one.” You say you haven’t proposed one. I’ve said that you have.… Read more »
Were I PPF, I would increasingly worry [and become more strident] about a changeover in both the U.S. House and Senate which many foresee taking place on 1-1-23. Add to that the Supreme Court conservative majority, and the Dem dam could break or collapse. Stock market recovery might disperse a few clouds, but many states and cities are under strain and prospective changes in public pension plans’ financial reports must be disclosed by actuaries under new rules that will clarify how bad things are. See Actuarial Standard of Practice #4 taking effect next February. As active employee layoffs become more… Read more »
Gosh I love a spirited debate. Thank you Wirepoints!
Exactly, more revenue will solve the problem. Unfortunately we’re at a place where the people that can provide that additional revenue are leaving the state. High income taxes, property taxes, sales taxes etc. are causing people to flee. As you try to raise those taxes more then more people leave. Throwing free stuff at the people that pay little in taxes and bilking the ones that pay a lot is not a sustainable model. At some point you need to realize the system is not sustainable and needs to be fixed. I don’t want to see the pensions blow up… Read more »
All these people fleeing yet the state is collecting more revenue than ever and the people leaving are selling their homes to other people that aren’t fleeing. People choose many reasons to stay or leave Illinois. Yes taxes could be a reason for some but I would venture to say just like Ken G, crime probably drives more people out of the state. That can easily be fixed when the voters get tired of pampering criminals. If the system blows up it will be because the state can’t raise any more revenue. If that happens then pensioners may receive a… Read more »
PPF – can’t treat pensions with a broad brush. The Chicago pensions are vulnerable. If one goes pay as you go – fire for one is vulnerable – the other funds are severely impacted as there is less money around to make contributions. The easiest way to raise revenue is to hike property taxes. But Lightfoot and Emmanuel are both wary on the score, constantly worried hikes of a material nature would empty the city.,This is the problem with today’s recessionary economy – selling pension obligation bonds may be difficult. Anyone around in 2008 knows how quickly the credit spigot… Read more »
Fair enough Willowglen. When I write about pensions in Illinois I’m typically referring to those backed by the state unless noted otherwise. The city pensioners are clearly more exposed. While I do believe that they will get to bankruptcy some day, past cases show that most pensioners receive a minimal haircut while bondholders get crushed.
The state on the other hand has vast areas still left to tax.
Lol
On a somewhat related matter I was amused watching the ABC news this morning regarding a reporter asking various people simply walking by what the govt. should regarding the current CPI surge. Almost to a person their answer was to lower taxes. Isn’t that essentially no different in principal than Pres. Biden’s throwing huge wads of money left, right and everywhere? Lowering taxes would somewhat kill the Fed’s efforts to reduce inflation by raising interest rates to reduce people’s ability to spend. As usual people ‘want to have their cake and it, too, by asking for two things that are… Read more »
First issue with this: watching network news. Second issue: Why default to thinking the government is the answer to doing something? Third issue: How is letting people decide on spending incremental tax savings the same as the government deciding on how it’s spent? Fourth issue: Who asked Sleepy Joe to overstimulate the economy? We may not be in this situation if not for that stupid idea. And if the media did its job of political accountability, we might be in a better state. But because it doesn’t, see the first issue.
I can’t answer you as completely as you want, but in a time inflation don’t economists essentially say that throwing more money to consumers tends to prolong or even worsen inflation? Asking for a tax reduction seems a bad idea to me while simultaneously appeasing the voters in the near term. As for the rest of it maybe we can hold a seance and ask Milton Friedman his opinions.
Just because we want a tax cut doesn’t mean we should get it. I would rather the government shrunk, but if you’ve visited the swamp lately, you’ll lose track of all the cranes in the air. All the constituencies in the swamp’s MSA will never allow that to happen. Lost business, reduced home values, fewer jobs. If Trump couldn’t succeed, I’m not confident anyone will, but a seance with Ronald Reagan might help.
Well, Nancy, there you go again. Mr. Jajujon, tear down that squall!
You’re good. Thumbs up.
The sanctimonious comments by the defined-benefits-entitlement crowd are illustrative of their ilk: they say: ‘F-you, pay me’
Yeah, we get that., those scum are going to have to get paid.
But then they say: ‘ we are wonderful people and you people we are destroying (including children) are scum to criticize us’.
That is the crossed line, where more people start to notice the disparity between humans and the Illinois defined-benefits-entitlement organisms.
The nerve of these public pensioners. They are acting like they have a contractual right to THEIR OWN MONEY. Sure it’s their money but they should still beg for their supper. I mean anyone that demands money from their own 401k, IRA or pension is scum and should beg for every payment and feel lucky to get it. They should also accept the scum label. It’s only fair.
Reason #2,573 to simply end this unsustainable pension system. End it yesterday. SS, and a 401 offered, just like the real world. Time to end the “Public Servant” gravy train.
Said and been “answered” here truly countless times.
If you aren’t happy with my admittedly flippant response surely you can find that topic discussed all over social media. Numerous commenters here have done so over the last few years. While I am interested in such commenters both pro and con I have little interest in educating a newbie on that topic since its something of a mire to be asked to do and likely without much appreciation for the great effort involved. So, I have to take a pass on that task. Maybe someone else will bring you up to speed here.
Speaking of returns I just read that I-Bonds from the Treasury are paying 9.62% for 6 months and adjusted every 6 months depending on the inflation rate. If this is correct it would seem prudent that pension fund managers would invest some cash they have to make up for losses in the stock market. Do you know anything about I-Bonds since I’m not familiar with them and are they a safe investment?
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_ibuy.htm
I bonds are as safe as the United States ability to honor them, so far a 100% safe bet, indeed. They are a good buy now, but as I understand it they re-adjust every 6 months, meaning the yield you quoted is guaranteed only for that term. There is a limit as to how much you can buy. I believe its $10,000 per year for an individual and twice that for a married couple. I also recall that there likely a penalty if sold during the first 2 years—maybe 3-6 months of interest. Also, there may be a lesser penalty… Read more »
Thank You!
The online password setup is no big deal through Treasury Direct. Their website is pretty good for bond information and handling your bonds. You can even set up viewing access only to someone on your account and also establish a successor.
Just look at the historical rates and see if you’re comfortable with them. They may payout enough in the next few years that paying the penalty for an early withdrawal may be acceptable. I-Bonds are a great safe place to park money you don’t need for a while.
No thanks Bobbi. The real world requires the state to its debt. Time to end the fantasy that the state won’t need to pay.
Because of course it’s not a fantasy to think taxpayers can be taxed into penury to make sure pensioners enjoy their thick steaks and fine wines.
Simple financial math. The more you save, the more you have to earn interest and the more you gain when the markets go up. The less you save, the less you have to earn interest and when the markets take a loss, the less you have to catch up with those who are still saving. If I got that concept and did a good job of saving, do I now have to pay for those who did not?
Apparently so. Few appreciate that as an abiding political point of view, but isn’t that a fundamental concept of most religions: help thy neighbor and treat him as your brother? How can so many Americans be faithful church attendees and not so that connection?
Who’da thunk that when TRS reported a 23% return last year that their two-year return average would be 8% the next year. Expect all the back patting from last year to be quickly replaced with whataboutism.
Who doesn’t think that, assuming you can get them to even talk about it, Pritzker’s administration will respond to this with another, “Oh, that’s not right, everything is great! Moving right along……” moment?
Put out another press release telling us that so many businesses are leaving other states to move to Illinois that they can’t be counted. Remind us that the budget is in better shape than it ever has been.
Brag about what a great job Pritzker is doing in front of an obliging and uncritical media, and get away with it.
Illinois’ 2023 budget included $200M of funding above the “required” $9.6B. Assuming a 12% loss on investments, which digs the hole deeper by another $32B, that $200M represents only .00625% of coverage for that additional deficit.
Here’s the press release of all the lofty Democrat praises for the budget: https://www2.illinois.gov/sites/budget/Documents/Budget%20Book/FY2023-Budget-Book/FY23BUDGETPressRelease%204.19.22.pdf. This quote by the governor is particularly rich: “… these are the kind of priorities we can invest in when our state is governed responsibly.”
Makes you feel proud to be an Illinoisan . . .
Ill-#1-3 in overall tax burden; #1-3 in political corruption; and #51, behind PR in fiscal condition. Plus our politicians are “owned” by the public unions, crime is rampant, and the majority of kids from poor families cannot read or do math at grade level, despite teacher salaries and pensions, and per student funding, among the highest in the nation. Our politicians will not materially touch the Big 3 primary root causes: public pensions; political corruption; and political mismanagement. The hard stuff. Instead only bs, and a move to exit by Prtizker before the federal money runs out and the stuff… Read more »
The job of teaching poor—and sometimes immigrant children—often is much harder than most adults can even begin to imagine. It often starts with the combination of poor parenting skills, language problems, motivation to be attentive literally for many hours on end, and behavior problems resulting when those are absent. In the adult world people who lack such thing either are quickly fired or forever unemployable at family-supporting wages. But, in the world where teachers work for an entire career dealing with such people is simply expected since the courts ruled long ago that receiving an education is not a privilege—as… Read more »
Je comprends, mais vous avez tort. How do you think our society produced this level of dysfunction? By following the “galactically stupid” ideas of the leftists that comprise the education establishment, and the politicians the unions bought to implement those ideas. Don’t like the consequences? Sorry, no sympathy.
We are where we are. I’m not happy about, and neither are you. Whatever solution I’d offer I’ve already said from time to time, and its not gotten any significant, obvious traction here. So, rather than seeking compromise as was the hallmarks of some former eras we all now are part of entrenched political camps almost entirely resistant to changing our points view as witnessed by the vile in so many comments here and elsewhere when political topics arise. By the way, I understand and appreciated your correctly stated reply in French. I had three years of it but only… Read more »
Honestly James I don’t think that compromise is possible, and you’re right that both sides seem entrenched. But only one side has been in control and been able to implement their ideas without meaningful constraint for almost 50 years. The results are painfully obvious. I don’t understand how teachers clearly don’t like what’s going on, but then allow people like Randi Weingarten to double down on crazy. Ultimately I think the only way this gets fixed is for teachers to get on board with change. But the only thing I see is teachers bemoaning the current state of affairs while… Read more »
There will be a traine recque sooner or later as we harveste whate we have sowne. It can be short and painful or long and more painful. It can be confined as with bankruptcy or spread broadly like the Civil War. Unfortunately, those now in the ring have only short-term interests in mind, such as re-election or their inevitable old-age comfort. Only people like Lenin and Hitler think in terms of 1000 years. Even Churchill said “if.”
Like a great many here you speak of ‘teachers’ as if they are a monolithic group. I suppose that’s because the news media really faithfully covers only the inner city teachers and their unions as bargaining issues arise. Believe it or not, there are huge numbers of teachers who have a different and more conservative mindset in the suburbs, rural America and The South generally. You don’t generally see that in the newspapers or the media at large, though. Its also worth reminder ourselves that people in all careers everywhere are individuals first and members of other things secondarily. Consequently,… Read more »
I’m sure you are right that there are conservative teachers- I know some of them. But there is no doubt who controls education and teacher unions. And until those people get a clue or are forced out, things will only get worse.
Who ‘controls’ education is a matter of politics whether in the public arena or private. If you think the Democratic viewpoint sways the day there, then I can’t argue the point. The Republican view tends to be more about ‘me,’ and the Democratic view is more about ‘us.’ Maybe that’s the reason, but I am guessing, of course.
Stereotypes aren’t always 100% accurate. That’s fairly self-evident to most of us. Like the Good Germans in War Movies. And most of us revert to partisan advocacy when our own reasonable expectations aren’t fulfilled.
It’s just frustrating to find so much polarization augmented by so-called intersectionality. Voters have stopped thinking, let alone reflecting. That’s a reason we get people like Biden and Trump at the top of the ticket. Not a choice but a dilemma.
Agree, with a caveat. Polarization isn’t the fundamental problem here. Implementing really bad ideas is the problem.
What’s bad to one person often seems good to another.
Of course. That’s why results matter, not simply what experts or anyone else thinks. Ultimately reality decides.
My same response still seems generally appropriate when the immediate issue is not life-threatening at least.
Further, a really good idea can, in retrospect, be viewed as a really bad idea. Ideas usually come from humans — worse yet: from humans who are poorly or incompletely informed. Chicago abuts Lake Michigan, for example.
Sure, its a common occurrence to think you have solved a problem only to have it extended by events unpredicted.
James?, jecomprends aussi mais the correct phrase en Anglais est “illegal alien”
Mais oui! But, we may not, too.
James, the correct phrase en francais est “peut etre, peut etre pas.”
The point I’m trying to make is by the time Bidet is in a memory care facility, half of all public school students in America will be DACA illegal aliens. In certain areas this is obvious even to casual observers. It’s coming to a city near you even if you’re 1000 miles from Mexico.
In the old days the progs said it was “for the children.” It will be interesting to see how they that tripe in 2025.
Quelle tragique, mon ami!
I’ll sera tragique pour les payers du taxes.
A bientot James
D’accord.
Messy me
Welcome to Filpoints, home of vigorous debate and French immersion.
Well played sir!