New study: Lower in-migration during pandemic a far bigger problem than higher out-migration for Chicago and other big metros – Wirepoints

We often use words like “flight” and “exodus” when talking about population loss in Illinois and Chicago, but this is a good reminder that inbound changes are at least as important.

During the pandemic, the number of people fleeing the Chicago metro area increased compared to the previous three years, but the number of people moving in dropped by more than double that.

That’s from an interesting study published this month by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. It wasn’t just the Chicago area.

“In Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, and Seattle, the most recent net out-migration estimates are more than twice as high as the average during the preceding three years,” says the study. This chart shows the combined jump in net outbound migration in major metros. Note that they were already losing population before the pandemic:

Large metro areas in general lost population, says the study, with the biggest changes coming from reduced inbound moves.

A fair amount about who is leaving is known, which we’ve written about here before, such as migration numbers by income group from the Internal Revenue Service. You, like us, also know some of them personally, and members of the Illinoisan diaspora are often among our commenters.

But we will probably never know much about who chose not to move in, or why. They are nameless but obviously real. It’s the same story when employers move.

What makes the study particularly interesting is that it used a more current data source than the annual Census Bureau population estimates that are widely reported, IRS data or most other. The study used a data bank of anonymous, randomized credit score files. Those files get updated at least quarterly for address changes, so they identify moves not yet picked up in annual reports.

Why have people fled or chosen not to move into big metro areas like Chicago?

A number of reasons are at play, including the growing work-from-home trend, crime and fiscal problems in many cities. But the study does include a strong indication that last year’s protests or riots, whichever you prefer to call them, were a major spark. In the charts below from the study, the red vertical lines mark the beginning of unrest in May.

– Mark Glennon

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KJ
3 years ago

People move because opportunity is perceived to be greater.

Once the opportunities leave, the location becomes unlivable.

Opportunities can be entertainment, community, employment, or many others.

nixit
3 years ago

Perhaps due to the drastic decline in travel and tourism industry whose workforce (food service, hotel housekeeping, etc) is primarily Hispanic?

debtsor
3 years ago

I was in our neighbor to the north a week or two ago. I had a conversation with a local realtor at a local bar (no masks!). He said the real estate market was on fire with any reasonably priced home or condo selling in days for over ask. The biggest problem now is lack of inventory. He said that a lot of his buyers are Illinois residents leaving the state, because in his own words, “you’ve got a bad government down there in Illinois.” That’s what he said. The word is out, everyone knows how bad Illinois is. But… Read more »

Last edited 3 years ago by debtsor
LessonLearned
3 years ago
Reply to  debtsor

Debtsor is correct. If you plan to buy a home in another state, be prepared to at least pay list price. That was my experience (Tennessee). Lack of inventory is currently a problem in many states. When the gov programs that allow people to ignore their rent or mortgage payments (due to covid) finally ends, there should be a lot of homes being listed. Biden just extended the programs to June. Also, long term delinquency right now is double what it was pre covid. Some areas in Illinois are currently enjoying a hot real estate market due to three reasons.… Read more »

Illinois Entrepreneur
3 years ago
Reply to  LessonLearned

LessonLearned – you nailed it. The local media probably sees this hot market as an indicator that all is well. They keep calling people who didn’t predict this (I was one of them) as a “naysayer.” Well, I didn’t plan on the government completely overruling private contracts to prevent foreclosures and evictions, and I didn’t believe that the government would put out over $5 trillion in free money for everyone. A hot market was inevitable, when the game is being rigged this way. Even in the Chicago area. This is just going to make the bubble pop even worse around… Read more »

3 years ago
Reply to  debtsor

“…you’ve got a bad government down there in Illinois.” The real problem is that the bad government always gets re-elected and people here think it’s just dandy. In fact, the “bad” government is a big draw for many who do come to the Land of Lincoln, looking for a slice of dystopian pie. It’s been a good place to be, for crooks.

Thee Jabroni
3 years ago
Reply to  Ambiguous End

Yes,or the people that want ” free” stuff…they either don’t know or more than likely don’t care that the ” free” stuff isn’t free!

Aaron
3 years ago
Reply to  Ambiguous End

Election fraud. Everybody knows it

LessonLearned
3 years ago

Wirepoints once again confirms what we already knew. The list of reasons to move to Chicago is small. The list to leave is long and growing.

MsT
3 years ago

I know those aren’t “your” graphs but it would be nice if they had a stable y-axis.

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A statewide concern: Illinois’ population decline outpaces neighboring states – Wirepoints on ABC20 Champaign

“We are not in good shape” Wirepoints’ Ted Dabrowski told ABC 20 Champaign during a segment on Illinois’ latest population losses. Illinois was one of just three states to shrink in the 2010-2020 period and has lost another 300,000 people since then. Ted says things need to change. “It’s too expensive to live here, there aren’t enough good jobs and nobody trusts the government anymore. There’s just other places to go where you can be more satisfied.”

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