By: Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner
The battle for the presidency is heating up as potential candidates Gov. Gavin Newsom of California and Illinois’ Gov. J.B. Pritzker continue to go after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Newsom just ran ads decrying the lack of “freedom” in Florida. And Pritzker recently traveled to Florida to give a speech ripping the state and Gov. DeSantis’s policies of “racism, homophobia and misogyny” and declaring that DeSantis is “just Trump with a mask on.”
Listening to just those two, you’d be forgiven for thinking that Americans have been leaving Florida in droves – not only to escape DeSantis but also the policies set by the previous two decades of Republican governors.
To the contrary, Florida is the big winner when it comes to the state-to-state competition for migrating Americans and their money. California and Illinois, meanwhile, remain two of the nation’s biggest losers.
The most-recent state-to-state migration data released by the Internal Revenue Service shows Florida netted a gain of 167,000 residents (tax filers and their dependents) in report-year 2020 – the most in the nation. In contrast, the IRS data shows California lost 263,000 residents and Illinois lost 101,000 residents that same year.
Those findings are based on a Wirepoints’ analysis of the latest 2020 domestic migration data provided by the Internal Revenue Service. The IRS reviews tax returns annually to track when and where people move. It also aggregates the ages, income brackets and adjusted gross incomes of filers.
The income of tax filers is particularly interesting for Florida, as the amount of wealth moving into the state is extraordinary when compared to other states.
In report-year 2020, Florida gained a net $23.7 billion in Adjustable Gross Income from residents moving in. That was the nation’s most, by far – as much as the next six states’ AGI gains combined. Texas, in 2nd place, gained only $6.35 billion and 3rd-place Arizona got $4.8 billion.
And again, California and Illinois were big losers, seeing $17.8 and $8.5 billion in AGI disappear, respectively.
Florida was also one of the nation’s big winners when measuring income gained as a percentage of the state’s total AGI. Florida gained the equivalent of 3.3 percent of its total AGI in 2020, the 4th-most in the nation behind Montana, Wyoming and Idaho.
The increase in Florida’s AGI is not only a function of netting new residents from other states. It’s also from the fact that those moving into Florida have far bigger incomes than those moving out. It’s almost a factor of two to one.
Those inbound to Florida reported incomes in 2020, on average, of $121,820. In contrast, those leaving Florida made, on average, just $68,104.
Florida attracts everyone
Importantly, it’s not just the wealthy and retirees moving into the Sunshine State. During Gov. DeSantis’s first year in office, Florida attracted residents from every age and income bracket. (See the appendix for a detailed, multi-year breakdown.)
Despite Florida’s reputation as the nation’s retirement destination, more than 40 percent of the tax filers moving in were younger than 55. Note that those numbers only include tax filers – not their dependents. Given that most dependents are children, it’s likely Florida’s migratory demographics are even more balanced than they appear – the state is filling up with far more people than just retirees.
And 2020 was not a one-off. Florida has been attracting residents for at least two decades with only a short pause in 2008 and 2009 due to the foreclosure crisis that hit Florida particularly hard.
In all, Florida has gained a net 2.3 million residents since the year 2000. On average, those residents have brought about $9 billion in fresh AGI with them each year, dramatically strengthening the state’s tax base.
In contrast, Illinois has lost nearly 1.4 million residents over the same period, with an average of $3 billion in AGI lost each year as a result.
Governors Pritzker and Newsom may decry Gov. DeSantis’s policies and Florida in general, but the IRS migration numbers show that Florida is winning the war for people.
And that includes Californians and Illinoisans – thousands of whom move to the Sunshine State every year, billionaire Ken Griffin of Citadel being just the latest example.
Look for Wirepoints to lay out the details of the one-sided migration from California and Illinois to Florida soon.
Appendix
Read more from Wirepoints:
- Pritzker Honed His Presidential Stump Speech In Florida – With Hatred And Dishonesty
- Illinois economy, jobs suffer under potential presidential candidate J.B. Pritzker
- Chicago carjackings on pace for a 22-year high – and they’re getting more and more weaponized
- Four more states move to a flat tax. Illinoisans were right to reject Pritzker’s progressive income tax.
- Four things you need to know about mass shootings and the new gun control landscape
Audio and summary 
If this bill passes, say goodbye to local control over all Illinois parks and expect to see open drug and alcohol use, needles, no sanitation and fire hazards, but no ordinary park users.
I bought a second home in Florida in June and could not be happier.
The tax climate and the weather in winter are big advantages. Florida is in its ascendency. They are building new cities, towns, major developments every day. This type of development spurs great economic growth. Illinois on the other hand, is already built out, has old industry, and due to poor management, has not adapted its economic and tax policies. Florida’s two largest industries are tourism and retirement. Miles of beaches and lots of old people. If you like strip malls and the early bird special, Florida is your place. And they’ve got Shaun Thompson now too. Illinois could be on… Read more »
Helping my neighbor this weekend and his father-in-law was there from Orlando. They built a new home five years ago there, and now are selling it for 2X and taking the bonanza to a lake house in NC. Made me feel like a damn fool.
One of my main considerations in moving to NC was that my house in DuPage was really not going to appreciate much more, and much of the appreciation would be eaten up by higher taxes. My house in NC is in an area where I expect more appreciation and where taxes are very stable. Raising taxes in my area is not tolerated. I also made sure to not buy in a county with a bigger city (over 50,000 population) because a city’s problems will spill into the county and raise the cost of living for everyone. When you search for… Read more »
My daughter lives in Cornelius North Carolina and everything you’ve stated is spot on.
A relative lives close by, that’s a great area. A little too much traffic for me, but still a desirable place to live.
When you visit, isn’t the vibrancy of that whole area in stark contrast to anything in Chicago or its surroundings?
Absolutely love going on there boat on lake Norman
Beautiful. Downtown Davidson is a gem, too.
Some states (like Florida) are showing us a better way. If you are an Illinois taxpayer, it’s time to look in the mirror. Why do you reside and support a state : Where absolutely everything is about race and gender Where crime is often unpunished That incurs debts it probably can’t pay That expects you to pay for others abortions That fails it’s children in multiple ways That generally places more importance on government than God or family Elections will not fix Illinois. The only way to stop the liberals is to make them support themselves. You defund the liberals/socialists… Read more »
This is the trend, and it can’t be stopped. The current administration would like to gain control with the ‘one size fits all’ for states, but to be able to exist safely & economically, Americans are in motion finding the best fit personally. And it ain’t in Illinois.
Gov. Desantis won the gov’s race by the tiniest of margins to a meth and gigolo using grifter who is currently under indictment for misusing campaign financing. Gruesome Newsom’s ad, full of left wing talking points, isn’t supposed to convince Republicans to move. He’s targeting disaffected Democrats still living in the state – millions of them. Fortunately, the FL Democrat party is completely decimated and hapless and flounders around much like the IL GOP because they’ve been wiped off the map by the opposition party with favorable redistricting and favorable demographic changes.
People weren’t that mobile in 2020 and didn’t quite know how evil Dems could be.
Wait until 2021 figures come out. 2022 may be larger still.
Leftist Democrats don’t care. Doesn’t Pritzker own a lavish home in FL where MK and the kids hung out as he locked the rest of us down in IL? That’s all the hypocrisy you need to know about Pritzker.
First, it is important that this information be analyzed and published (thank you Wirepoints) to balance the liberal mainstream media bleating about blue states, which are increasingly becoming fiscal disasters. Hopefully it is picked up and distributed widely. Second, while it is old news for Illinois, the population trend for California bears close monitoring. It can have a tremendous impact on other states that are seeing an influx of escaping California residents. Where they go and how they vote in the future could seriously impact the US Senate. Lastly, as the article points out, when a state attracts new residents,… Read more »