By: Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner
Illinois’ leaders can deny the state’s population problems all they want, but a collapse in the state’s number of congressional seats is proof enough of the state’s population woes.
Illinois’ congressional representation has been on a steady decline for decades. Since 1930, Illinois has lost 10 seats in the House of Representatives, falling to 17 from 27. The Brennan Center calculates the state will lose another two seats by 2030 if current trends continue.
Illinois’ influence in D.C. has waned significantly. That’s bad news for the state’s progressive leaders who want to spread Illinois’ policies nationwide. But it’s good news for others across the country who oppose Illinois’ blue-state model.
Most of the losses in Illinois’ congressional seats over the decades have been due to the rest of the country growing more quickly than Illinois has – a relative loss in people for the state (see appendix).
But more recently, Illinois’ population has fallen. In the last decennial count done by the U.S. Census in 2020, Illinois was just one of three states in the entire country to shrink.
Since that decennial, Illinois has lost population three years in a row, totaling over 240,000 in losses, according to U.S. Census estimates.
The Brennan Center says that: “New population estimates released this week [Dec. 2023] by the U.S. Census Bureau suggest that the shifts in political power after the 2030 census could be among the most profound in the nation’s history.”
The center used those numbers to predict Illinois will lose another two seats in 2030. Michigan loses one, while the rest of Illinois’ neighbors hold steady in representation.
Longer-term losses
Some will want to make Illinois’ longer-term losses a Rust Belt issue, but a look going back to 1980 shows that most of Illinois’ losses, along with Michigan’s, are far larger than those of neighboring states. Illinois and Michigan have both lost five seats and Iowa two. Every other state only lost one seat over the period.
Nationally, Illinois ranks as one of the nation’s big losers over that 40-year period – tied with Michigan for 4th-most. Only Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York lost more.
On the flip side, Texas and Florida have been the big winners of political influence, growing by 11 seats and 9 seats, respectively. California is next, gaining 7 seats, but it should be noted that expansion occurred almost entirely between 1980 and 1990. Since then, the Golden State has stagnated and even lost a seat in 2020.
Illinois’ population-loss deniers need to take one message from the above: If you’re not growing, you’re shrinking.
And that shrinking comes with a loss of political influence.
Appendix.
Read more from Wirepoints:
- Big red states gain, big blue states drain when it comes to 2023 population growth – A Wirepoints 50-state survey
- New 2023 Census estimate: Illinois’ population drops again, losses now total a quarter-million since 2020
- ‘Illinois is growing,’ claims yet another group of political elites. It’s not true.
- It’s not just people. Illinois suffered the nation’s 3rd-worst loss of businesses in 2021.
- New Census data: Illinoisans continue to flee, but not only to Florida. Many are moving just over the border
Audio and summary 
If this bill passes, say goodbye to local control over all Illinois parks and expect to see open drug and alcohol use, needles, no sanitation and fire hazards, but no ordinary park users.
This is a disaster for Illinois. Good article, Wirepoints, especially since the WSJ has an article tomorrow about the future of the US being in the South. Fewer congressional seats means that Illinois is no longer a delegation that has to be dealt with, or feared. And our brilliant Governor still doesn’t believe the Illinois population is shrinking. Rostenkowski, Lahood , Bob Michel, John Porter, the Lipinskis and many more all worked hard in a bipartisan manner to get for Illinois everything they could. And the problem is not just the number of seats we have lost over the years.… Read more »
Don’t forget Sean Casten. Yet another socialist. Illinois has been a lock for Dems. The Dems currently bare little resemblance to those “across the aisle” Dems from the past. Usually the stealing was done quietly but the public business came first. Now we have diehard communist radicals which BHO wanted all along. The communists will succeed in dividing up the races, cities, state, and pit neighbor against neighbor. Soviet Union and Cuba. Neighbor telling on neighbor that tell the Stasi you are listening to Free Radio from Miami instead of the State Controlled station. They tell on their neighbors in… Read more »
By 2030 we will have a lot more critical problems in this state and country than the number of reps that Illinois has in Congress. I don’t like our current people in Washington, so the fewer the better. Every time they open their mouths on TV it embarrasses our state.
Democrats flee places like Illinois, California and NY because of high taxes, crazy regulations, corruption etc because they elected the politicians. They move and then vote for the same idiotic politicians who caused them to move. Ya just can’t fix stupid.
That’s simply not true. It’s mostly conservative and independents moving to escape.
Yes, Conservatives are fleeing blue states for red states. This is born out in surveys and voting patterns. Democrats are very happy with the state of IL is being run. They have no problems with it here, they like this progressive utopia. The only problem they have is that YOU, deplorable, are still here, contaminated the air you share with them. They want you gone.
I can’t say for statewide but in the American Bottoms area the blue collar employers have been run out of the area by assorted issues including taxes and unions causing many to leave for other areas to seek work. Quite often the people were union members that always voted for higher taxes upon the mean evil corporations that provided them with jobs.
I’m just glad that Pritzker committed not to gerrymander districts before he became governor. We all remember that whopper don’t we? He really is a mealy mouthed waste of space. And the mainstream media won’t say a damn thing about it.
Thats why people must continue to leave Illinois.
Those that stay are funding and enabling the corruption. The family excuse doesn’t fly when a neighboring state is less than 50 miles away from 80% of Illinois’s population.
Absolutely correct.
That’s how I feel about it too. I did not want to stay and fund the corruption.
And in 1950, Illinois had 26 seats in the Congress. Interesting trend!
Just imagine what congressional representation would be like if Chicago and Cook County purged their voter roles of the dead? Then again Democrats should be thanking Texas Governor Greg Abbott for increasing Illinois’ population or it would really be in the tank.
Au contrair mes frers. There’s a reason for that conga line of illegals to Democratic cities. The next big push will be to count illegals for congressional seat apportionment. Being a Dem means never to have to say I’m sorry or my policies don’t work (for the good of tax paying citizens).
Pritzker denies US Census reports, denies IRS tax filing statistics, denies reports from moving companies, and now he has this Brennan Center report to deny. What will it take JB? IL lack of congressional representation just means big losses in federal funds and influence. As congressional seats skew more to red states, where will be your federal bailout?
No, no, no, no… You are looking at the wrong report. All is well.
How awesome would it be if IL lost 2 seats to each of the 5 adjoining states? I know it’s late, but please Santa, please! I’ve been a good boy.
JB Pritzker, aka Just Bull…. Pritzker, aka The Toliet Bowl King, is perfectly happy losing two additional congressional seats, as long as he does not loose two pounds from his frame.
A weight loss would require a new wardrobe,
Which would require a trip to the Caribbean
To get more of grandpa’s money.
Would somebody please tell Governor Round boy?
In some die-hard liberal states, the entitlement mindset is already too entrenched to reverse course, but they are just going to get politically and financially weaker with time. The long-term outlook at a national level is positive. If you can find yourself a conservative state, all this woke equity nonsense won’t be a concern in your life. You can focus on what matters most, family, friends, career and your relationship with the almighty.