By: Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner
Wirepoints has been documenting Chicago’s population problems for years. To this day Chicago remains the only major city among the largest 25 to have lost population since the year 2000 (see appendix).
The pandemic years sent out-migration into overdrive, with recent census estimates showing the Chicago metropolitan area losing a record 79,000 in population in 2021 and another 77,000 in 2022.
Now the latest 2023 Census population estimates show migration and population changes have largely returned to their pre-pandemic patterns across the country. The Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area (Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN) lost more than 16,000 people between July of 2022 and July 2023. While better than the previous two years, a return to “normal” in Chicago still means the area is losing population every year.
Chicago’s 2023 loss is the 3rd-highest decline among the nation’s metropolitan areas. Only the Los Angeles area (down 71,000) and the New York City area (down 65,000) lost more people than Chicagoland.
In contrast, Houston and Dallas both saw their metro areas grow by more than 100,000 people last year.
In all, the Chicago area lost more than 172,000 people during the pandemic period – the nation’s 4th-worst loss behind only New York City, Los Angeles and San Francisco.
A breakdown of components
All three components of population change – births minus deaths, international migration and domestic migration – contributed to the smaller population losses in 2023.
First, Chicago-area deaths declined while births remained steady, resulting in a 7,500 jump in the net natural increase (births minus deaths) compared to 2022.
Net international in-migration hit 34,600 people, also higher than last year
And Chicago experienced a loss of 71,300 residents to net domestic out-migration – 46,000 fewer than last year. That out-migration was still enough to offset the area’s population increases, resulting in a net loss of 16,000 people.
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Chicago’s return to its pre-pandemic number matches the national trend, which the Census Bureau noted in its recent state-level population report: “Population trends are returning to pre-pandemic norms as the number of annual deaths decreased last year and migration reverted to patterns not seen since before 2020.”
That news should be cold comfort to both state and city officials. Smaller losses are still losses.
It’s more evidence that the Chicagoland area remains trapped in its downward spiral where residents flee higher taxes, growing crime and bigger debts, leaving an even bigger burden on those who still remain.
Appendix.
Read more from Wirepoints:
- The well-educated are fleeing Illinois, too
- Big red states gain, big blue states drain when it comes to 2023 population growth – A Wirepoints 50-state survey
- ‘Illinois is growing,’ claims yet another group of political elites. It’s not true.
- Walmart’s flight from Chicago: ‘Corporate racism?’ Or crime, taxes and dysfunction?
Audio and summary 
If this bill passes, say goodbye to local control over all Illinois parks and expect to see open drug and alcohol use, needles, no sanitation and fire hazards, but no ordinary park users.
For middle-income professionals, Chicago residency no longer offers sufficient reasons to pay high property and sales tax, while often shut-out of reasonable-quality public education, public transport subway and bus service, public safety, and single-family home purchase in a quiet neighborhood within reasonable commute from work. North-side former working-class residential neighborhoods are both too expensive for middle-income professionals, and no longer perceived as reasonably safe. When there’s a daylight shoot-out on your residential block, when your neighbor is carjacked in your residential alley, when your middle-school kid is mugged at bus-stop, regardless of your politics, you no longer feel safe, and… Read more »
I’m a middle-income professional…
– one nearby mugging – YES (four mutts jumped out of a stolen Kia)
– one nearby carjacking – YES (way more than one)
– one nearby daylight shoot-out – YES (one dead, two wounded)
…moved away from a “reasonably safe” neighborhood in Chicago last summer.
Whoever thinks your former neighborhood is reasonably safe isn’t reasonably intelligent.
Did you stay in the city, move to a suburb, stay in IL, or move out of state?
I moved out of state. Not gonna say where. Just that it’s far more sane.
Thanks. Agree there’s nowhere to hide in IL.
Spot on Street. Even Bowmanwille is getting sketchy.
“regardless of your politics, you no longer feel safe” … regardless of your politics …. is that supposed to be a joke? Chicago is in the shape it’s in exactly BECAUSE of politics. The city gets everything it deserves when these are the types of “leaders” and policies the voters continue to put into office.
Here’s how we do things in North Carolina. There were two county commissioners where I live who touted the fact that they were “conservatives”, but every time there was a vote, they ignored the local residents who made clear in local surveys what they wanted from the county leadership. Well in this small semi-rural county with limited news sources, but with open meetings that residents attend as part of their civic duty, each fake conservative was voted out by a resounding margin of 60/40. This is what you experience when you leave the cesspool that is Illinois and move to… Read more »
Ataraxis, we moved to unincorporated Salisbury, NC in May 2021 due to a job offer my wife received. She didn’t want to look in Illinois as she was approaching retirement age & hated the cold. I miss the food & familiarity of Chicagoland but can always drive back to restock. The majority of people have become distant & cold toward one another in Illinois whereas in NC people are friendlier & help one another. In my rural subdivision we have people here from Illinois, California, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Pennsylvania & New Hampshire. I do not gloat, but mourn… Read more »
I have a younger daughter who is a RN and lives in Cornelius N.C and they just love it, and yes people are friendly and helpful towards one another.
Perhaps this has been the plan all along of the Chicago and Cook County leftist progressive leaders. Wean out the conservative complainers so just socialists and useful taxpayer idiots remaining. After all this plan has worked so well in Portland and Seattle!
So these numbers don’t make since the city of Chicago alone had an influx of 30k people this year…and it’s only a matter of time before climate change does TX and Florida in. Red states are the most in danger with climate change and refuse to do anything about it. I wonder can lower taxes save you from that 😂
Your comment (spelling and use of English) shows you have been undereducated, probably the result of the Chicago public schools. You may be a prime example of why there is no hope for the city. A city of mostly poorly educated residents can’t compete nationally or internationally. Speaking on behalf of the red state residents, we would prefer you remain in Chicago until you realize your reality is not factual.
The presentation makes perfect sense if you’re trying to convince conservatives to give up and leave the state.
I’m actually wondering if this comment is an attempt at sarcasm.
Chicago – Meet San Francisco. The rapidness of SF’s decline has even caught Leftist Democrats by surprise.
They keep voting in the same kind of bad leadership……..would like to leave also as it is only getting worse.
Illinois is losing population because the normal people are leaving this dump of a state. Only the leftist crazies are staying. The population losses by county bear this out. That’s why Illinois has no hope for the future.
“The population losses by county bear this out.” Please say more about how you conclude this.
I voted with my feet over 20 years ago and left Taxistan.
My bank account is $200K fatter due to my smart financial decision.
You were smart. It took me a lot longer to wise up. Gone only 3 years.
Come on all you brain dead progressive losers, provide a counter argument/comment to go along with those down votes, or is that beyond your ability?
It’s beyond their mental ability. “Progressive” = “Room temperature IQ”.
Plus I don’t have to endure supporting corrupt Dems in Illinois and their masters da public sector unions!!
Illinois, please keep pushing your taxpayers towards the exit. We can use those relocated tax dollars in the thriving red states. While you fill potholes in Illinois, we will build new roads. While you repair your old schools, we will build new schools. All those former Illinois, New York, and California taxpayers are very much appreciated here in Florida, Texas, and Tennessee.
You have angered the CrapFax peeps with your terrible truths. Their down votes are all they have, as they can’t refute your facts. It’s fun to watch.
I love the down votes. Like you said, they can’t use facts or truth to counter my opinion.
Just a matter of time until the Illinois
National Guard is covering the entire
CTA, it’s that or the crime will not stop.
They want to expand the red line, its
Called the red line because of the amount of blood spilled while riding
It, they can rename it the lead line.
Hatiago will continue to destroy the
Once great city by the lake.