Chicago’s homicide problem dwarfs those in New York, Los Angeles – Wirepoints

By: Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner

The City of Chicago is getting outsized attention for its growing wave of violent crime, but based on recent data reported by University of Chicago researcher Jens Ludwig in the Chicago Tribune, the city’s homicides deserve even more scrutiny.

Comparable data shows Chicago’s homicide rate in 2021 (annualized) is six times larger than New York’s and three times bigger than Los Angeles’. Chicago has lost nearly 30 people per 100,000 in population to homicides compared to ten in Los Angeles and just five in New York.

Ludwig’s data largely dismisses the narrative that Chicago’s increase in homicides is just part of the national trend seen in the last two years.

As the below graphic shows, Chicago’s homicide rate broke ranks from New York and Los Angeles’ in the 1990s and never dropped to the lower levels experienced by the bigger two cities over the next two decades.

There are plenty of experts who downplay Chicago’s current numbers by saying that the 1990’s rates were worse, or by comparing Chicago’s rates to smaller cities like St. Louis, Baltimore or New Orleans. But Chicago has always demanded it be compared to the two bigger coastal cities on a host of issues – and on homicides, it’s failing badly.

The other key data point from Ludwig’s analysis is the growing disparity between Chicago’s racial demographics.

Homicides are down for whites and Hispanics, but not for blacks, compared to the peak in the 1990s. In fact, the data shows that it’s black deaths driving the overall increase in Chicago. Black homicides were at a 30-year high in 2020, at 78.3 per 100,000 population. In the 1990s, the rate peaked around 70.

In contrast, Hispanic homicide rates are down about 30 percent, even when taking into account the recent jump, and white rates are down 65 percent compared to the early 1990s. Homicide rates in 2021 for Hispanics and whites were at 15.3 and 2.9 per 100,000, respectively.

Ludwig’s analysis also dismisses all the usual explanations for Chicago’s higher levels of homicide:

“It’s natural to think that the most important factors that affect gun violence, such as funding for public schools, racial and economic segregation, or gun availability and gun laws, must also explain the safety gap across cities. But as best as we can tell in the data, that doesn’t seem to be the case.”

Instead, Ludwig says the gap between the big cities may relate to Los Angeles and New York shifting “to a more professionalized organization.” Both embraced “a reduction in cronyism in appointments and promotions, better officer training, data-driven management systems and efforts to increase officer and departmental accountability” to a degree that Chicago has not. The result for Los Angeles has been a steady decline in its homicide rate as public support for police has increased.

Meanwhile, a Wirepoints/ROCR opinion poll on policing conducted in October 2020 indicated over half of Chicagoans had a negative opinion of the CPD, with more than 60 percent of South Siders having a poor or not so good opinion. However, instead of wanting less police presence, most Chicagoans also want more officers on the street. Nearly 80 percent of residents indicated they wanted police to spend more or the same amount of time in their neighborhood. 

While professionalized policing might be part of the solution in Chicago, what all of the above shows is that incremental steps are not going to cut it. The homicide rate is far too extreme.

What it also shows is that change is possible. Ludwig’s data finds New York and Los Angeles managed to drop their homicide rates by 83 and 64 percent, respectively. 

That’s a good target to demand from Chicago officials.

Read more from Wirepoints:

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SteveOh
2 years ago

It’s as if Ms Mayor doesn’t care. Same here in Maryland with the Mayor of Baltimore and Gov of Maryland. It’s unbelievable how little they care to try to fix the multiple problems of once- great cities. PS: Regarding the Obamas: 13 years ago when Obama was running for Prez, I read Michele (Robinson) Obama’s senior thesis research paper at Princeton. It described and posited, that successful Blacks should, after their successes, should return to the cities they came from to help improve lives of the Blacks who were struggling, and make that a priority. Guess she changed her mind… Read more »

Last edited 2 years ago by SteveOh
Illinois Entrepreneur
2 years ago
Reply to  SteveOh

Virtue signaling is the tool of choice in the elitist’s tool box. Michelle Obama was just keeping it sharp in order to get approval on that thesis.

Mike
2 years ago

2021 YTD: 671 killed, 3,083 wounded.
2020 YTD: 628 killed, 2,762 wounded.
HeyJackass.com Tweet on October 10, 2021 covering the City of Chicago.
https://twitter.com/w_h_thompson/status/1447397931544465409

Thee Jabroni
2 years ago

To all the dummies that elected Lightfoot,and re-elected Kim Foxx-you get what you deserve,boo hoo,soooo glad i dont live in the sewer known as Chicago,0 sympathies for you fools,you get what you voted for!!

Marie
2 years ago

As long as Chicago has Lightfoot and Fox you’re just simply screwed. I’m so sorry.

M.H. D.
2 years ago

Always curious as to why the focus is on the South Side, not the West Side, too. After all, one of the three white stripes in the Chicago flag represents the West Side. The most curious item of omission in the endless nattering about Chicago’s crime rate, violence, and general lack of civility? Where is mention of the “anointed one” meant to “save” the U.S? Silence. The bearer of HOPE & CHANGE? Barack Obummer. If he can’t address the issues of his ersatz “hometown,” what good is he? Physician, heal thyself. After a more than a decade of deception, you’d… Read more »

Illinois Entrepreneur
2 years ago
Reply to  M.H. D.

Your point is a good one. I read somewhere that Obama succeeded because he was able to remain a blank canvas. He dutifully voted “present” on almost everything and only said vague, ambiguous pieties. He did this of course, until he was “free to say what he wanted” after his second election for the presidency. That’s when we saw the divisive rhetoric and the mean-spirited partisan that he is. When he hit the national stage, people saw what they wanted to see, which was competence, unity, diversity, compassion, toughness — whatever it was that they thought a hero was made… Read more »

M.H. D.
2 years ago

Obummer was said to be the editor of Harvard’s Student Law Review, but there’s never a mention of what his tenure achieved. Just like being a “community organizer” in Chicago. No one recalls what he organized. Of course, now he’s organizing the destruction of Jackson Park so that the surrounding area may become “gentrified”, which will help his pals’ real estate interests. I was wrong to believe that Chicagoans would fall for his malarkey. Just the way Chicagoans fell for that Massillon, Ohio, transplant who’s the mayor. As ersatz a Chicagoan an Obummer. The city’s already honored a real Chicagoan,… Read more »

Illinois Entrepreneur
2 years ago
Reply to  M.H. D.

I think many Chicagoans–particularly in the media–suffer from an insecurity complex. They’re always trying to demonstrate that the City and its occupants are “world class.” Because Obama was successful on the national/global stage, I don’t think Chicago Democrats would EVER challenge him. They want to be “accepted” in the elite circles, and not considered “amiable midwesterners.” Respect is certainly nice, but most of us true conservatives really couldn’t care less (RINO’s are another story). It seems that Democrats and Progressives have an image thing that they are more concerned about than actual reality. “Optics” they call it. Count how many… Read more »

M.H. D.
2 years ago

Doubtlessly correct. Obummer wouldn’t have gotten to first base in Chicago without the help of Valerie Jarrett who corrupted UC with Obummer’s, and Michelle’s, presence. Both of them got a sinecure from UC [notice how UC is sliding down the greasy pole of the WSJ’s listing of “good” schools, even below Northwestern. EEEK!]. Sen. Grassley went after UC for Michelle’s phony appointment at Billings. When she left, the position disappeared. Ruin is always in their wake.

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