By: Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner
It’s election season in Chicago and that means the media manipulation of Chicagoans has kicked into overdrive.
On perhaps the single biggest issue for Chicagoans, crime, the big bold Chicago Tribune headline on January 2nd’s print version says this: CPD: Homicides down 14%.
While that number is factually correct, you can’t help but think the Tribune’s main goal is to make uninformed Chicagoans think crime is down, when in fact overall crime was up 41 percent in 2022. Many residents will never read the Tribune’s full article since most don’t have a subscription. They’ll just see the headline on their phones or at a news stand.
It’s the wrong message for a city struggling with increased lawlessness made worse by city leaders’ failed policies. There are many other more direct – and balanced – angles the Chicago Tribune could have taken.
Here are some headlines that better represent the actual crime situation in Chicago:
“Overall crime up 41% in 2022, even though homicides down 14%”
“Chicago 2022 crime still up 33% compared to pre-Covid, pre-G. Floyd 2019”
“Chicago homicides down 14% vs. 2021, but still up 39% vs. pre-Covid, pre-George Floyd 2019”
The Chicago Tribune’s reporting on 2022 crime does a disservice to city residents. Chicagoans deserve to know the reality of crime in their city, not just a narrative spun to make Chicago leaders look good as elections approach.
The Tribune does say later in its article that homicides are still up vs. 2019. But the overall article was still dominated by positive spin from Chicago Police Supt. David Brown, including a misleading line on crime and the CTA. Overall crime may be down, but that’s largely driven by the dramatic drop in ridership, down nearly 40 percent as we wrote about recently. Despite that, violent crime is as prevalent as ever. There were 10 homicides in 2022, up from just 2 in 2019. And incidents of criminal sexual assaults, aggravated assaults and batteries and robberies are running close to or ahead of their 2019 numbers.
Worse off
Chicagoans are simply worse off than they were in 2021. The CPD’s CompStat Report shows overall crimes are up 41 percent compared to last year. Motor vehicle thefts are occurring at a rate of nearly 100 a day and will total around 21,000 in 2022, double the 10,000 in 2021. Other thefts are also on target to hit nearly 20,000, up 56 percent, while robberies and burglaries are each up 15 percent each over last year.
And we haven’t got back to normality either, if the murder level in 2019 in Chicago can be called normal. This year, there’ll be around 700 murders compared to “just” 494 murders in 2019. That’s still up nearly 40 percent, meaning we are far from “normal”.
And then there are the two other facts that can’t be ignored: CPD arrest rates have been dismal in recent years – arrests for crimes like robbery, aggravated battery and burglary have fallen to rates of 10 percent or less. And there are hundreds of thousands of high-priority 911 dispatches, more than 400,000 in 2021 alone, that go unanswered for long stretches of time.
It’s impossible to know just how many Chicagoans have simply given up on reporting crimes given both those operational failures – meaning the numbers being reported may be dramatically short of what’s actually happening on the street.
Reporting reality
The real story about crime is Chicago leaders’ active worsening of the criminal justice system over time. They’ve destroyed police morale with their demagoguery that’s resulted in mass retirements, resignations and, tragically, multiple suicides – there were three in just one week in December.
There are now 1,600 fewer cops today than in January 2019 and that’s certainly negatively impacted the arrest rates and response rates to violent crimes we highlighted above.
They’ve also defined crime downwards – for example, Cook County raised the bar for felony theft to $1000 from $300 – making it harder to incarcerate criminals and increasing the speed of the revolving door.
And they’ve favored the rights of criminals over victims through legislation like the SAFE-T Act, which would eliminate cash bail among many other negative impacts.
As long as Illinois and Chicago politicians continue the same destructive policies, and media like the Tribune fails to call those leaders out for it, Chicago’s crime problem is unlikely to improve.
Read more from Wirepoints:
- Illinois’s No-Bail Criminal Experiment – Wirepoints in the Wall Street Journal
- Chicago’s progressive agenda has been destructive for black communities
- Changes to Illinois’ SAFE-T Act a vindication for opponents of the law, but the Act remains dangerous to Illinoisans
- 100 a day: Chicago motor vehicle thefts explode as SAFE-T Act changes debated
- Poor communities bear the brunt of crime unleashed by Cook County bail reform and the SAFE-T Act: New Manhattan Institute report
Ted was on The Chicago Way with John Kass and Jeff Carlin to discuss the proposed $5 billion lakefront stadium project proposed by the Chicago Bears & Mayor Brandon Johnson, why Chicago is struggling compared to other metro areas across the country, why the city might or might not go the way of Detroit, and more.
Some Illinois lawmakers continue to deny that covid aid and other federal stimulus bailed the state out of its fiscal mess. But a look at past and projected revenues from COGFA shows just how much the bailouts blew out the state’s revenues. And now that they’re over, how much harder it will be for Illinois revenues to grow.
Election integrity – both real and perceived – is essential to government’s legitimacy and stability. Illinois, like the rest of the nation, better fix its problems now.
Ted joined Dan and Amy to talk about Chicago’s latest bond offering, why Chicago’s dismal home value growth is due to poor policies, the next $70 million to be spent on migrants, the 9% salary hikes demanded by the CTU, and why Illinois lawmakers voting to stop Chicago’s selective enrollment schools from being closed is hypocritical.
Weekly crime statistics from the Chicago Police Department: Report through 4/21/2024.
The poor Trib is paralyzed. The world is nearing an uncontrolled state snd thr Trib talks about how disapointing the Bears are!
More deceptive Pravda Media from the Democrat Party faithfully printed by the Tribune.
Ted, John or wp commenters—I’m a little confused. What do you think major reason /motivation would be for Trib to downplay the crime #’s? Doesn’t crime sell newspapers?
Also, interesting kimmies so quite these days.
Sucking up to the establishment through the progressive lens which downplays crime.
I don’t think that it is “sucking up” but instead pure raw knowingly deceptive propoganda. If you repeat a lie enough times some fools will believe it.
They down play the truth because it is required to advance the progressive agenda. This is one of many eggs that need to be broken to make the omelette.
The Tribune has fallen far from its perch as Chicago’s most objective news rag. Here’s a headline from the Sun Times a few days ago: “In Chicago, a year of fewer shootings and murders but little sense of being safer.” I guess the Tribune couldn’t run that story line because they need to sensationalize to prop up readership and cover for the political class.
They are both untrustworthy and no longer serve the public with objectivity and a check on politics.
The Tribune is peddling misinformation that threatens democracy!
Excellent article. Thank you once again for giving us the key facts!
People who chose to stay in Chicago need to get armed. Particularly Asian people. It’s you or them now.
Spot on; don’t leave home without it!
The headline should just be “Don’t Buy the Tribune”. That rag has been printing nothing but garbage for years, just ask John Kass.
Wirepoints gives it audience yet another in a series of unending reasons to leave Chicago (and/or Illinois). Today it is about the dishonest/misleading local media. It’s generally accepted here that things are only going to get worse, much worse for Chicago and for Illinois. Recent information seems to indicate the exodus from the state will only accelerate going forward, led by independents and conservatives. I encourage all remaining residents to ask themselves…… With the city/state on a course to becoming increasingly liberal, is it delusional to think future elections will be any different? Does it even matter at this point… Read more »
Those of us who have left have absolutely no regrets about leaving. Actually, kind of a joy that we got out just in time. I can’t describe my disappointment about what the Trib has become compared to my childhood when I devoured the paper when my dad brought it home. It is perfect to motivate people to leave and the people who stay behind believe it. So many national unbiased stories about Chicago/IL realities that the local media doesn’t cover. Situation much worse than the media let’s on.
My whole family looked forward to the Sunday Tribune 30 years ago. We each had our favorite section. Now, none of them live in Chicago.
I delivered the Tribune and SunTimes from the age of 12 to 16 in the 1970’s. Can you imagine letting a 12 year old out on their own from 5 AM to 7 AM in 2023? Oh the progress we have made. I read the Tribune everyday from that time until I finally cancelled it a three years ago. It has become such a rag. They are offering six months for $1, and I still won’t take it. At what point does a business look at their plummeting circulation and consider a change in course that would attract more readers?… Read more »
I did the same, about 50 Tribs and 10 SunTimes. Memory fading bit, but about $6 per week with a $1 bonus if less than 3 complaints. Always got the $7. Man did I hate Sundays. Had to use the wagon on those days. Loved the Christmas tips!
Ted, there’s a typo near the top of your report, where you write:
“There were 10 homicides in 2022, up from just in 2019.”
How many homicides occurred on the CTA in 2019?
Just 2 in 2019. Thank you for catching that!