By: Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner
For at least two decades now Illinoisans have been fleeing Illinois in search of better opportunities and a lower cost of living. Lower taxes in particular have been one of the key attractions of other states. Property taxes at half Illinois’ level, cheaper gas, and in many cases, zero income-tax rates, have all contributed to the flight of Illinoisans to far more affordable states. Illinois ranks second only to New York in the loss of taxpayers to other states in the last decade. At Wirepoints, we’ve documented in detail who’s leaving the state and what those losses mean here and here.
But what doesn’t receive enough attention is what will happen when the number of people moving into Illinois drops even more dramatically than it has in recent years. Illinois urgently needs people to move in to replace the people that are leaving if the state is to avoid shrinking for a second decade in a row.
That won’t happen as long as publications like personal finance advisor Kiplinger reveal just how expensive Illinois has become for middle-class families. The publisher found Illinois was the nation’s least tax-friendly state for middle-class families when looking at the impact of sales, income and property taxes on a hypothetical couple with two children. Connecticut was the second-worst, followed by Iowa, New Jersey and New York.
“It can cost you thousands of dollars each year if you fail to consider state and local taxes before moving your family from one state to another,” said Kiplinger. “So, if you and your family are considering packing your bags and moving to another state, make sure you check out the list before finalizing your decision. It might make you think twice before relocating.”
Illinois’ out-migration data, available from the IRS, shows the results of families “thinking twice.”
Illinois already loses far more people from migration than it gains each year and the disparity has only gotten worse over the past decade. In 2010, 41,000 more people moved out of Illinois than moved in. By 2019, that difference had doubled to more than 82,000.
What’s worse, Illinois is attracting people to the state that make far less than those who are leaving. That disparity has also grown over the past decade. The Illinoisans who fled in 2019 earned, on average, nearly $21,000 more than the residents Illinois gained from other states. In 2010, the difference in average incomes was just $5,500.
Illinoisans can expect the income disparity to widen further as Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Cook County President Toni Preckwinkle and Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot continue to push policies that attract lower-income people – guaranteed basic income, sanctuary status, subsidized healthcare, etc. Whatever you think of those policies, they’ll inevitably help shrink Illinois tax base, making the state’s problems even worse.
As the fiscal and economic situation worsens in Illinois, it’s becoming increasingly more difficult to keep the costliness of Illinois a secret. Kiplinger’s new ranking is just the latest in a long list of “Illinois the Outlier” facts.
So, how long until Kiplinger joins Pritzker’s ever-growing list of politically inconvenient “carnival barkers?”
- New IRS migration data: Illinois third-biggest loser of people, biggest loser of incomes, to other states in 2019
- New IRS data reveals which states won and lost the competition for people and their wealth in 2019
- Don’t fall for Pritzker administration’s misleading comments on Illinois’ population losses
- The 2020 U.S. Census numbers are horrible for Illinois
- WalletHub, Tax Foundation confirm what Illinoisans already know: they’re overtaxed
- Wirepoints’ “Illinois the Outlier” Video Series
Audio and summary 
If this bill passes, say goodbye to local control over all Illinois parks and expect to see open drug and alcohol use, needles, no sanitation and fire hazards, but no ordinary park users.
I thought Kiplinger was Lori’s preferred brand of snuff, she puts it in her duppa.
That’s where she puts everything else, so why not?
Just read that Taylor,Texas was chosen by Samsung to build it’s $17B chip factory. Was Illinois even considered? I wonder if the tax environment here in Illinois had anything to do with their decision. Illinois would be hard pressed to have a BBQ chip plant built.
Illinois doesn’t tax retirement income, that is about the only incentive left to attract in-bounders. But that’s only the retired market, for the retired the weather is important too, so its probably a wash as far as attracting retired residents, our crappy weather is not worth enduring just to get into a non-taxed retirement income state. When I retire next year, my Illinois income tax savings will negate my $5500 a year property taxes, reducing my urgency to leave, that and grandkids here.
Neither Tennessee or Florida tax income of any kind + they have nicer weather. The politicians aren’t as crooked either.
Until you get paper ballots and voter ID, it will continue to be a tailspin. You only have the illusion of choice. Politicians are chosen, not elected. Elections are held only to lead you to believe a choice exists. In actuality, most politicians belong to the Uni-Party, meaning most play for the same corrupt team. D vs R, rich vs poor, black vs white, etc., are mechanisms meant to deceive and divide you while unspeakable evils are committed behind political doors. Now they are coming for you children. Prepare accordingly because the Uni-Party won’t stop until their mission is accomplished.… Read more »
And this is despite IL not levying a sales tax on services or an income tax on retirement income.
And what will Illinois voters do to help remedy the problem? Keep electing the same incompetents over and over again?
We left IL two months ago because of all the corruption and financial debt. Four other couples left this year for the same reasons and two other couples are in the process. These are all intelligent aware people frustrated knowing nothing will change, so leave. Those that stay behind are either beneficiaries of the system or lemmings that don’t know any better about other states. With these people leaving, the squeeze gets tighter on those remaining. They are just paralyzed, brainwashed, or scared to change.
Within the last 9 months two of my offspring and their families relocated – didn’t want Illinois debt passed down to their children. We’re not far behind.
But Pensions Paid First claims that your outbound migration is just a drop in the bucket, and your replacement – likely a family of illegals whom recently crossed the Texan border – will provide the labor and skills our region needs to thrive.
18k Illinois population decline over 10 years is a drop in the bucket. Tax revenue is up about 70% from 10 years ago. Chicago population grew with the exception of the black population. This is probably caused from horrific crime in certain Chicago neighborhoods. You don’t typically hear that black people left the state because they are worried about state debt. Illinois population is declining because of the Rockford, Peoria, Springfield and other rural type areas where earning a decent living is a challenge. Chicago and the suburbs have been growing. This group has more income and education but yet… Read more »
https://www.realclearpolicy.com/articles/2021/11/12/state_population_counts_deserve_closer_scrutiny_803260.html#! WP linked to this article earlier suggesting that the 2020 census may have overcounted Illinois residents because of major discrepancies between the ACS and the census counts. Given how much trust we have in IL right now, and the morons in charge (we are only one of 7 states with mask mandates!) I don’t doubt that the census numbers are just wrong. Look at how well they handled the massive unemployment fraud….and you think we counted our IL residents correctly? hahaahhahhaa Again, you’re also missing the nuances of the replacement population. Looks at the massive increase in foreign born… Read more »
I can’t easily follow PPF. Must be my lack of perspective. I think PPF’s point is to not make do much noise because pensions will be paid no matter what, so little things like quality of life and comparative disadvantage relative to other areas doesn’t matter. But I am never sure with PPF. If tax revenues have increased, I would only think that is positive to the extent correlated with gdp growth. I don’t know the data offhand, but has GDP growth increased 70 percent in the same time period? What of a comparison to neighboring states?That is what matters.… Read more »
Pritzker’s spin will be that this is the consequence of not passing the progressive tax amendment. Of course, if the Tax amendment passed, the middle class would have not had any savings but would have ended up paying more than ever. The state’s debt ms are beyond typical comprehension and will only grow, no matter what tax scheme is enacted. Nice place there, Illinois
It’s the ‘graduated’ tax now, because the progressive tax name is so disgusting to the current voting population.
Our so called flat tax isn’t so flat anymore when you consider the numerous additions and reductions in taxable income when preparing your tax return. The there are the assorted tax credits that reduce the amount of tax due. The days of “flat tax” are pretty much over and that progressive tax is just another name for a hidden tax hike upon the middle class as inflation pushes incomes into the upper tax brackets.