By: Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner
Overwhelming data shows Illinois is losing population and people to other states. The Census, the IRS and several moving companies have published migration and population figures that show Illinois is shrinking.
Now we can add the National Center for Education Statistics data to the pile. Their latest data shows Illinois lost nearly 225,000 public K-12 students between 2010 and 2021 – the nation’s 2nd-most behind only California.
Of course, student enrollment data is only a proxy for overall population, but Illinois’ student losses are extreme enough to indicate a population problem. (And no, students haven’t fled to private schools. Illinois private school enrollment is down 23 percent).
The losses are also extreme on a percentage basis. Since 2010, Illinois’ public school enrollment has shrunk by nearly 11 percent – the 3rd-most in the nation behind only Vermont and New Hampshire.
The student losses over the last decade buttress the census population data that showed Illinois was one of only three states to shrink in the last decade (2010-2020). Loss estimates in the last three years total another 200,000 (net of 46,000 people Gov. Pritzker reportedly recently found after the 2020 census was completed). We’ve reported on the census data in detail in the following pieces:
- The 2020 U.S. Census numbers are horrible for Illinois
- ‘Illinois is growing,’ claims yet another group of political elites. It’s not true.
- Big red states gain, big blue states drain when it comes to 2023 population growth
- Center Square: Pritzker announces Census updating Illinois’ count by 46,400 people
The NCES data also supports the IRS data that shows Illinois has lost more than 890,000 taxpayers and their dependents to out-migration since 2010. We detailed Illinois’ losses in this piece titled: New IRS migration data: New York, California, Illinois are the nation’s big losers of people and their wealth, Florida, Texas the big winners
Some might argue that student losses should be expected given the long-running decline in birth rates nationwide. Fewer children being born eventually means fewer students, after all. But that ignores the fact that many states are growing their student enrollments significantly. States like Utah and Florida have gained over 100,000 students since 2010. And Texas gained a massive 500,000.
Even compared to other states that had student losses, we were among those at the extreme.
Anyway you look at it, people are fleeing Illinois to other states for a host of reasons. And they are taking their children with them.
Read more Wirepoints:
- Catholic Schools in Cicero and Berwyn are closing. Students’ only local alternatives are failing public schools.
- Chicago Public Schools’ twisted goal: End selective enrollment schools while keeping nearly empty, failing schools open
- How much dishonesty about illegal immigrants can Gov. Pritzker cram into a minute and a half?
- Court finally approves local pension management consolidation. Good, but not much in savings.
Audio and summary 
If this bill passes, say goodbye to local control over all Illinois parks and expect to see open drug and alcohol use, needles, no sanitation and fire hazards, but no ordinary park users.
CARNIVAL BARKERS!!!!!! Just shaddayp youze chumbolones, pay youze taxes and tanks us elites for thinkings for youze.
There is a silver lining, fewer students means that the bloated education budget can be trimmed… Right?
I love Illinois we are a power house of a state and the only people leaving are the losers and those companies that don’t want to pay there taxes so they go take advantage of people in other states 45 years here never going to leave never…by Felicia more room for the rest
Get a job.
The spelling and diction of that post would indicate a low possibility of gainful employment, at least in the private sector. A well paying government or CPS job is quite probable , however.
Also approx 585K abortions reduced the population since 2010 which is 4 cities the size of Rockford.
I have 4 children and they all left for college in other states. I advised them to get out of IL.
Why don’t you follow them then?
Noneya bizness
Because this is my home and I will fight against the corrupt woke progressives socialists that seek to destroy this state. Some of us are standing our ground and fighting ! Especially against a government that tries to take our rights away like the 2nd amendment !
Bravo, Stevet. And we are just one front in a life or death struggle for the nation against a radical movement seemingly intent on suicide.
Another “ Pro Pritzger “ troll laid to rest by their greatest foe, common sense. Well done.
Local media refuses to report anything but half-truths or stories just go unreported. Seems like the progressive masses just want dumbed down news against orange man. Shame, shame, shame. They could be holding politicians accountable and yet this insanity continues. The state is bleeding $$$ and talented people daily because of this crap!!!!
Gosh, a quarter million students. A property tax reduction must be on the way….
NOPE! Low income illegal immigrants require MORE resources, up to 40% more per student, to properly educate them to the same standards as non-low income students. TAXES WILL INCREASE TO PAY FOR ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS “Defining Resource Equity There is relative consensus across the education community that disadvantaged students of various types require additional resources to achieve at levels similar to their more advantaged peers, a belief that is increasingly built into state and district school funding formulas. However, while it’s simple to see whether schools are funded equally, it’s not so easy, particularly at first glance, to determine if schools… Read more »
Student achievement is abysmal in public schools all around the country. Here is an article but does not mention results for private schools as a comparison.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/students-reading-math-scores-abysmal-110000462.html
Congratulations to those parents and students for leaving Illinois and high taxes, failing public schools and a sanctioned illegal migrant takeover of the state. Best of luck to you!
Like Nero, Pritzger fiddles while the fires he created to sow confusion and pave the way for progressive/ socialist/ communist policies to take hold burn and burn. He is seeking to destroy your livelihood, your families and basically remake IL into the twisted version he and his cronies desire.
Great article. However, this goes beyond just losing students, as over a 11 year period, the entire education system is turned over and replaced with new students as older students graduate or drop out, and young children enter into the school system. The real problem is that IL only partially replaces the students that leave. My back of the napkin research shows that the working class districts are hemorrhaging students and only partially replacing them with illegal immigrants; and middle class and upper middle class areas are a mixed bag, either having a slower rate of loss, or, remaining stable.… Read more »
Amen. All the newly coined words in your post reflect the decline of civilization itself. Chicago is the Wuhan of The West.
Issue is MANY suburban families decided to home school during lock down.
Yes, many did, but that in no way explains the 20, 30% or more drop off after excluding the new ESL illegal immigrant students. Parents are fleeing the state and younger couple aren’t having children in IL. Years of anti-human policies inevitably lead to fewer humans, and therefore, fewer students.
Some numbers are missing in this analysis, add in home schools, private schools .
As mentioned above, “Illinois private school enrollment is down 23 percent,” that’s about 66,000 less students. There aren’t any hard numbers we found on homeschooling, but some estimates show homeschool students may have grown by 100,000 over the decade. That’s not enough to change the overall significant loss in children.
The biggest losses my from brief research seem to be coming from working class communities where illegal immigrants are rapidly replacing blacks and whites, like Joliet, Rockford, Aurora, CPS, etc. Even in the schools that have declined less – like for example Streamwood, enrollment has dropped from 1955 in 2018 to 1735 in 2023, the loss coming from every demographic except hispanics, they have remained stable, and now comprise over 2/3rds of the school up from 59% in 2018. The middle and upper middle class communities are a mixed bag, with slower rates of loss, or remaining stable, likely from… Read more »
” The Usual Gang of Idiots ” will continue to proclaim that Illinois is not losing anyone. We know this to be false but in the world of LaLa Land Springfield it works.
Yes we lose people but those who stay continue to loose money, more and more
every year.If the Toliet Bowl king would help us lose some bowls we could deduct money from our property taxes but nooooo, his Majesty reserves that to he and the queen.
And so it goes……
Is teacher’s union membership declining commensurately? How about public money spent on public schools, adjusted for inflation?
Governor Carnival Barker will disprove these numbers with a wave of his mighty hand! Ye shall be flogged for your insolence.