A Protest I’ll Be Marching In – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon* I’ve never marched in a protest before, but this one’s important — and personal. A woman in my area has organized a demonstration for Tuesday calling for criminal prosecutions over the program to incite violence to stifle political activity, which was recently exposed in the Project Veritas videos. Lives were put at risk. Homeless and mentally ill people were among those paid to start fights. The primary video is linked here. The video is “absolutely prima facie evidence of criminal activity,” according to Former federal prosecutor Joe diGenova. That seems right to me, yet we’ve heard not

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The Usual Suspects Helped Kill the Fair Map Amendment – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Who helped kill the widely popular constitutional amendment to take politics out of how legislative maps are drawn? The assumption all along seems to have been that House Speaker Michael Madigan had just picked up the phone to one of his lawyers to make it happen. The Illinois Supreme Court killed it in August, though supporters had collected over 500,000 signatures to put it on the ballot next month.   Turns out Madigan got some help. Tom Kacich at The News Gazette reported the facts earlier this week, though his article has been overlooked. The opposition

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Provoking Violence to Disrupt Political Activity Must be Stopped Cold

What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly. -Thomas Paine By: Mark Glennon Clear video evidence shows a concerted effort by the Democratic party to incite violence to disrupt political activity of Donald Trump and others. If you haven’t seen the must-see video, it’s linked here. The central figure is Chicagoan Robert Creamer, husband of Rep. Jan Schakowsky, who is properly implicated, too. Creamer is subsequently reported to have visited the White House over 340 times since 2009. Don’t tell me to ignore the video because the guy behind it is a conservative with a questionable background of selective

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Illinois Treasurer Churns $12.5 Billion Portfolio Every 3 – 4 days — $1 Trillion Per Year – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Illinois Treasurer Michael Frerichs said last week on CNBC that his office does a staggering $1 trillion per year of investment activity. Why? That’s an astonishing amount of churn for a portfolio with a consistent balance of $11.5 to $14 billion.   To illustrate, let’s take five zeros off everything.   Suppose you have an investment account, the balance of which is always $115,000 to $140,000. It fluctuates between those numbers as you deposit new money and pay bills, but always stays within that range. When you get the annual statement it shows that your

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Either Leslie Munger Stays as Comptroller or a Darwin Award Goes to Illinois – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   There’s a referendum of sorts on the ballot next month and it’s huge. It will capture the fundamental direction in which Illinoisans want to take the state. It’s simple and direct, and presents a choice that couldn’t be more stark.   It’s the election for Comptroller: Leslie Munger versus Susana Mendoza.   Before we get the the bigger implications of the race, the office itself is important. It’s not just that the Comptroller has the job of picking, to some extent, which bills to pay. That’s a horrible job now, like the triage a battlefield

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Time for Illinois to Learn Another Dirty Word: ‘OPEB’ – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   It’s an overlooked add-on to our pension crisis, and it’s huge. Like pensions themselves, the problem won’t be solved until we size it correctly and understand it fully. But with OPEBs, that’s more easily said than done.   OPEBs — Other post-retirement employee benefits — are primarily healthcare benefits granted to pension system members. Once promised to state and local workers in Illinois, they are constitutionally guaranteed along with pension benefits themselves, thanks to the 2014 Kanerva decision by the Illinois Supreme Court. Healthcare obligations extend for the lifetime of the pensioner and are mostly unfunded.

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Clinton vs. Trump: Polls, Focus Groups or Cookie Index? – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   In our endless quest for objective data, I stopped in at Bennison’s Bakery in Evanston, IL to get the latest on their Trump v. Clinton index. With this reading, people have to put their money where their mouths are. Or maybe vice versa. Whatever.   They’ve been selling Clinton and Trump cookies and closely watching the numbers and trends, posting up to the minute totals behind the counter.   Hillary is clearly running away with it, with 1346 Clinton cookies sold versus Trump’s 956 as of Noon today. That proportion has been pretty steady, Assistant

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Junior High Kids Put National Debates to Shame – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Seventh and eighth graders chose the questions for their two candidates for the U.S. Congress in a forum Tuesday evening. Check out how issue-focused, straightforward and productive their questions were, as well as the coverage of it, in the Chicago Tribune article linked here. “Policies, not personalities, mark WJHS students’ questions to Schakowsky, Lasonde” — that was the Tribune’s appropriate headline.     What a contrast to the national debates and so much of the media’s coverage. Nothing about Miss Universe, Birthirism, Tweets, who-called-whom-what and all the other tabloid, time-wasting nonsense that has consumed the

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Illinois Revenue Decline Continues – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   The monthly report is now out for September from Illinois’ Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability. It shows monthly and year to date revenue collection by the state compared to last year.   Not good. Revenues continue to decline.   For the fiscal year to date (which started July 1), total base revenue is down $145 million. That’s a 2.1% decline from the same period last year. According to the report, “both personal and corporate income taxes have disappointed. At least sales tax receipts have grown, albeit at fairly weak levels.” Sales tax receipts have

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Illinois Treasurer Will Punish Taxpayers, Blameless Shareholders and Employees for Wells Fargo Scandal – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Illinois Treasurer Michael Frerichs today announced suspension of all State of Illinois business with Wells Fargo.   A number of Wells Fargo employees — a huge number even by Wall Street scandal standards — recently were found to have fraudulently opened millions of phony bank and credit card accounts and charged fees on those accounts.   Is Frerichs punishing the guilty? No, he is punishing Illinois taxpayers, blameless shareholders and employees who’ve done nothing wrong.   The Illinois Treasurer is an administrative office. Its purpose is simply to invest state cash on hand in the

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Catalog of Failure: 21 Ways Illinois Progressives Betray the Poor and Middle Class – WP Original

“The chief cause of problems is solutions.” – Eric Sevareid By: Mark Glennon* If Illinois Progressives were true to what they’re supposed be about — helping the little guy —  we should all be one. But they’re not. Policies they’ve enacted and now propose are a catalog of unintended consequences, naivete, virtue signaling, willful ignorance and stuff that just doesn’t work. Before the list, one note: Progressives will react to some of this by saying, “That’s why we want a progressive income tax.” Understood. I’ll address that separately below. And the fact remains that, without implementing a progressive income tax,

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You’re an Idiot and a Lunatic for Questioning ‘Safe Spaces,’ ‘Microagression,’ Says President of Northwestern – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon* Never mind that he’s talking about many who his university educated, including me. Any of you who question campus preoccupation with safe spaces, trigger warnings and microagressions are idiots and lunatics. That’s what Northwestern University President Morton Schapiro told new students this past week in his welcoming address. Articles about his comments include those in CampusReform and The Daily Northwestern. “Look for safe spaces,” Schapiro told the freshman, and he pledged that “if you can’t find them, we will help you find them.” Regarding traumatic ideas, Schapiro says, “If they say that…you shouldn’t be warned to

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Oregon Pension Official Reduced to Tears. Illinois Should be So Lucky – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   “Rukaiyah Adams, the normally polished investment professional who is vice chair of the Oregon Investment Council, broke down in tears last week as she spoke of passing a record $22 billion in unfunded promises to future taxpayers.”   The full story on that is linked here.  Notice the candor of the discussion: “Experts openly acknowledged they’re understating the magnitude of Oregon’s problem. They’re relying on optimistic assumptions about investment returns. And they’re holding down required pension payments below what’s needed to keep pace with the debt.”  The facts sound familiar, but the acknowledgement?   “We’re

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Chicago Municipal Pension Proposal Would Worsen Unfairness for New Hires – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Pension excess in Illinois is widely reported — and accurate. Less known is that, for many at the bottom, the story is quite opposite. Many new workers won’t get an adequate retirement benefit unless they work a full career in the system, or at least until vesting in ten years. The new proposal for MEABF, Chicago’s municipal pension, would make those workers still worse off, robbing them of meaningful retirement benefits for what may be a large part of their career.   First, some background on the current situation for new hires. For almost all

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Should a Trustee of an Underwater Pension Cut Payouts Now to Save for Future Claims? – Wirepoints

By: Mark Glennon* It’s a question several readers have asked in various ways, so let me take a crack at it. To illustrate the issue most clearly, think of a worker or new retiree in one of the worst funded of the hundreds of police and firefighter pensions in Illinois, in a muncipality that’s also sinking fast: I’m retiring soon and my pension is bleeding down to zero. The pension continues to pay out full amounts due to those already retired. Shouldn’t they be saving at least something for me? Aren’t the trustees supposed to be fiduciaries for me, too?

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A Watershed Recommendation of Bankruptcy for Illinois and Chicago Goes Unnoticed – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon* William Isaac knows insolvency when he sees it, and how to deal with it. As Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation from 1981 to 1985, he was on the forefront of the banking crisis at the time. He founded The Secura Group, a leading consulting firm in financial regulation, and is a respected voice in the world of finance. Bankruptcy, not just for Chicago, but for Illinois as well, he says. “The city and the state should act now to restructure their liabilities and put the fiscal mess behind them. This can be accomplished by

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Chicago’s Municipal Pension Proposal Makes the ‘Edgar Ramp’ Look Like Kansas – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Here’s what Chicago taxpayers face under the proposal passed today by the Chicago City Council’s Finance Committee, supposedly to stabilize one of the city’s four pensions, MEABF:   This year and next, taxpayers will contribute $163 million to the fund. The ramp up thereafter is $267 million in 2018, $344 million in 2019, $422 million in 2020, $499 million in 2021 and $577 million in 2022.   Then, the real shocks start. Beginning in 2023, the taxpayer contribution will be based on the “ARC.” That’s a purported “actuarial” calculation that supposedly would take the pension to

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Shifting Grounds in the Battle Over Illinois Public Pension Assumptions – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   It’s truly absurd that actuarial assumptions have become a mortal issue for Illinois state and local government, but that’s where our defined benefit pension system has left us.   The most impactful assumption is the rate of return pensions will earn on assets they have. The typical assumption of about 7.5% is universally ridiculed by financial economists. Why have overly optimistic assumptions persisted? In Illinois in recent years, that answer has been pretty clear: Pension trustees — both those appointed by politicians and public unions — wanted to hide the scope of the problem. And

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Past the Breaking Point: Tax Revolts Brewing in Illinois – WP Original

  “What we need is to work in moderation, not in the extreme.” -Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan   “Yeah my blood’s so mad feels like coagulating.” -Barry McGuire, Eve of Destruction   By: Mark Glennon*   They’re sprouting. Tax protest and revolt groups, long predictable in Illinois, are popping up. Articles today in the Northwest Herald and Illinois News Network describe some of them, perhaps the most notable being Illinois Tax Revolution. Others are under discussion or in formation. I’ve heard from them here.   Most are focused on property taxes, as they should be, because rates in many

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Why You Should Love the New Name for Chicago White Sox Home: ‘Guaranteed Rate Field’ – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Don’t ridicule the new name for the home field of the Chicago White Sox, formerly, U.S. Cellular Field. It’s now Guaranteed Rate Field.   This could be a great opportunity to educate the general public about the primary thing bankrupting Illinois, Chicago and many other towns and cities.    Defined benefit public pensions, most of you probably know, account the lion’s share of our state and local fiscal crises. And what’s the main thing wrong with them? It’s that they take in contributions from taxpayers and employees and invest that money in things with an uncertain

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Illinois Is ‘Draining its Savings Account’? Better Check the Numbers. – WP Original

  “Financial watchdogs” fretting over a “rainy day fund” that’s almost meaningless, in more ways than one.   By: Mark Glennon*   “Illinois drains state’s savings account due to budget crisis” was the headline on an Associated Press article yesterday. It was widely republished across Illinois today.   Somebody needs to wake up and take a broader look at the money on hand in the Illinois Treasurer’s office. The most recent balance posted by that office (as of the end of July) is $14 billion, up from $12.2 billion just three months ago. Not that it matters, however, because even

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Failure of New Pension Accounting Standards Shows in Chicago Police, Fire Pension Reports – WP Original

  Even under the new accounting standards, Chicago’s police and fire pensions are using a single discount rate of about 7.1%, though both are under 25% funded. By: Mark Glennon* The public pension world mostly cheered the arrival of new pension reporting standards from GASB — the Governmental Accounting Standards Board. A meaningful step towards more realistic reporting on pension deficits seemed here. In particular, a central problem has been that pensions typically assume very high rates of return on investments they hold, which have been widely criticized as unrealistic. That number has a massive impact on the reported health

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Emanuel Administration Using Repealed Contribution Schedules for Police and Firefighter Pension Numbers – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   In picking which decepton to write about in the City of Chicago’s PR offensive last week about the its finances, I’m suffering from  the “paradox of choice.” That’s what occurs when you’re overloaded with too many choices, making it difficult to decide.   I’ll go with this one for now — the numbers for Chicago’s police and firefighter pensions. Had it been honest, the city would have prefaced its pension numbers by saying, “Let’s assume we didn’t kick the can and that an old law is in effect.”   The pension numbers the city used

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Illinois Congresswoman’s Hypocrisy on $15 Minimum Wage Shows Its Flaw – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon Hiring a Field Organizer, says a posting by Illinois Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky: “Hours are very long and irregular.” Responsibilities include maintaining “7 day per week presence in office.” Pay: $2,000 per month. The problem is that Rep. Schakowsky is an outspoken supporter of a $15 per hour minimum wage — the “Fight for 15” movement, it’s called. That would be $2,400 per month even if the job took only 40 hours per week, which it apparently doesn’t. In fact, if this is a 60 hour per week job, which it looks like, Schakowsky’s pay would come

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Chicago’s Friday Bunk Dump – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon* Fridays in the summer are a great day to dump news you don’t want scrutinized, as reporters will tell you. Today, we got a new financial report from the city, the actuarial reports for its police and firefighter pensions and news of a private offering by Chicago’s school district. The Report First, the city released a carefully written, glitzy, Annual Financial Analysis, linked here. At least they put it online this year, a departure from the past, but that’s probably because it’s such meticulously prepared misinformation. Hooray, said most headlines and Mayor Emanuel in his cover

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Pensions, Politicians: Just Publish the Damn Actuary Reports – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Among the most inexcusable and infuriating parts of our pension scandal is the difficulty of getting actuarial reports, which all pensions get annually. Some Illinois municipalities publish theirs promptly. Most do not. Try to get them and you’ll often get jacked around.   Here are three recent experiences:   Cook County On July 8, 2016 I FOIAd Cook County’s office of the President, thinking they should have the actuarial report for 2015, though it was not yet on their website. On July 11 they responded saying they didn’t have it yet and suggested I ask

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Cook County Pension Liability Leaps by 130% in 2015 by Switching to New Accounting Standards – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   If you follow our pension problems closely, you probably think Cook County faces an unfunded pension liability of about $6 billion, which makes it about 60% funded. That’s how it has been very commonly reported over the last year.   Under the new accounting standards of the Governmental Accounting Standards Board, which are now gaining wide acceptance, the unfunded liability in fact was $15.3 billion and was 36% funded as of 12/31/15. Details are contained in an actuarial report recently completed that I had to get through a Freedom of Information Act request.   If

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Eternal Doom: The Implication of Democrats’ Legal Positions for Illinois Pensions – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   If a leading voice for Illinois Democrats and public unions on the legality of pension reform is correct, this is the consequence: No Illinois constitutional amendment, act of the United States Congress or Federal bankruptcy can ever, for eternity, reduce unfunded liabilities in our municipal and state pensions. Only voluntary trades made at the discretion of  pensioners, which obviously can’t accomplish much, are permissible, he says. Statewide, those unfunded liabilities total $371 billion, according to recent data compiled by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and based on more accurate “market based” numbers.  

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Could a Bankruptcy Court Cancel Chicago’s Hated Parking Meter Deal? – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon* A bankruptcy filing is the ugly inevitability for Chicago, we’ve said, but here’s one interesting, potential sweetener: Bankrupt municipalities have the option of cancelling most contracts and leases they don’t like, and that might include Chicago’s despised deal that privatized parking meters. Regardless, think of this as a lesson in one part of bankruptcy. Arcane bankruptcy topics like this, unfortunately, will be critical to the recovery of dozens of insolvent municipalities across Illinois that face bankruptcy. First, a little background on the deal, which was executed in 2008 and partially amended in 2013.  In exchange for an

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Rahm’s Excellent Perpetual Money Machine – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Why didn’t somebody think of this sooner? Mayor Emanuel has proposed authorizing the City of Chicago to buy bonds issued by Chicago Public Schools. (The full, proposed ordinance is linked here.) The same taxpayers can be both lender and borrower! No need for the muni market and their blather about junk bonds. And no need for those boring, pesky offering statements and disclosures — CPS and the city can just use mirrors. Heck, why not take the idea further and let Chicago’s pensions buy the city’s bonds?   The basic concept is perfectly sound. Only

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For Illinois’ and Everybody’s Sake, Put the UK at ‘Top of the Queue.’ Now. – Updated – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Think what you want about whether Britain was wise to exit the European Union, but, now that it’s coming, Illinois should be demanding, as should everybody, that the administration reverse its stated position that the United Kingdom go to “the back of the queue.” The administration is aggravating a manageable, near term disruption and may help blow it into a major crisis.   It matters immensely. Illinois companies export almost $2 billion annually to the UK. Tens of thousands of Illinoisans are employed here by British companies, and vice versa. The Chicago Tribune detailed a host

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Orlando as a Fundraising Opp: Blatant Ethics Violation by Illinois Congresswoman – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon* The righteous needn’t concern themselves with rules, laws or standards of fundamental decency, evidently. I received this blast email this morning from my representative in Congress, Jan Schakowsky, who has been leading the sit-in on the House floor: I just wanted to update you on what’s going on in the House. It’s been 24 hours and despite House Republicans’ best efforts we’re still here, standing together and demanding that Speaker Ryan allow a vote on commonsense gun-safety legislation. The bottom line is our colleagues on the other side of the aisle aren’t listening. Which is why we

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Bankruptcy Code Amendments Should Now Be Illinois’ Imperative – WP Original

  Illinois is falling further behind the curve by ignoring the inevitable. It’s priority should be influencing Congress to amend the Bankruptcy Code to make it a fast, efficient, predictable means to a fresh start, with the general public’s interest made paramount. By: Mark Glennon* In the dozens of articles you probably read in the last few months about our fiscal crisis, what’s the universal omission? A solution. No analyst, officeholder or commentator has offered one. No combination of survivable tax increases and spending cuts can solve Illinois’ consolidated state and local fiscal insolvency. There is none — unless debt,

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Why Unions Cheered Can-Kick on Chicago Pensions: Automatic Tax Levy, Casino! – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   If you’re scratching your head about why public unions are thrilled with the override of Governor Rauner’s veto of SB777, which reduces taxpayer contributions in the near term for Chicago’s police and fire pensions, here’s why:   Overlooked by our ace press corps is the funding guaranty in the bill. Starting in 2020, taxpayer contributions increase to whatever-it-takes, sky’s-the-limit, annual contributions sufficient to fund the pensions, and property taxes automatically increase to cover those amounts. The bill also mandates that revenue from any casino in Chicago go towards pensions.   So, public unions are thinking

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Chicago Laborers’ Pension ‘Rescue’ is Just Another Can-Kick – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   “We’ll worry about fixing the pension in five years and hammer new workers for now.” That’s a pretty fair summary of the plan for LABF (Chicago’s Laborers’ pension) released by Mayor Emanuel’s office yesterday — as far as we can tell from the horribly inadequate information it provided.   Here’s what we know, from piecing together a number of news stories on the plan:   Taxpayer contributions into the fund will increase over five years to a point where they supposedly become sufficient to bring the fund to 90% funding in 40 years. Starting next

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Lessons for Chicago from Detroit’s Bankruptcy: By the Book – WP Guest

  By: Joe Mathewson*   As the City of Chicago prepares to borrow still more to pay current bills, we taxpayers are constrained to wonder: where’s the plan to reduce the billions of debt for which we’re ultimately responsible? The total is already soaring beyond an impossible, unimaginable $30 billion!   We can learn from a new book, Detroit Resurrected: To Bankruptcy and Back, by Nathan Bomey, who covered the complex 2013-2014 court process for the Detroit Free Press.  Four lessons stand out:   1. Most important, if not entirely new, is Bomey’s granular description of how U.S. Bankruptcy Judge

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What? Chicago Pension Liability Jumped $11.5 Billion in an Instant? – UPDATED – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Bloomberg today reported that Chicago’s unfunded pension liability jumped by a staggering $11.5 billion. For a little perspective, keep in mind that the total unfunded liability for Chicago’s four pensions as commonly reported has been only about $20 billion.   Shocked? You shouldn’t be. We wrote two years ago that this is one of the “insane implications of keeping two sets of books.” Get used to it. That $11.5 billion increase was for just one of Chicago’s four pensions. Similar bad news will be coming out in Chicago and across the state for many other pensions.

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New ‘Market Based’ Data Show Mind-Blowing Reality of Illinois Pension Debt – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   The Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research recently published a splendid new database, Pension Tracker, that includes “market based” numbers on state and local pension debt. For Illinois, the numbers (linked here) are simply astounding.   Pensions, governments and reporters use “actuarial based” numbers, which are built on assumptions typically set by politically appointed pension trustees. Those assumptions include, most importantly, high earnings expectations for pension investments — the “discount rate” — typically, about 7.5% —  which no reputable financial economist accepts. Pension Tracker shows those numbers and also “market based” numbers, for which it

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Just What’s in that $700 Million Social Services Bill, Crammed Through in an Hour? – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   High fives abounded Thursday in Springfield after both houses of the General Assembly approved spending $700 million on social services. But has anybody really taken a good look at all that’s in it? Not many in Springfield, evidently: It went through House committee in the morning and was called for vote that afternoon, only about an hour after members received a staff analysis.   How many times have we seen this before, both in Springfield and Washington? Cram bill through, find pork and favoritism later. In this case, most of it looks legit, but there’s

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The Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund’s Shameful Bragging Tour – WP Original

  “Gall: Brazen boldness coupled with impudent assurance and insolence.” –  Merriam-Webster Dictionary By: Mark Glennon* IMRF, the Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund, went on a “statewide informational tour” last week. It was basically a brag fest. Illinois taxpayers should be appalled. IMRF is the second largest pension fund in the state. It covers 100,000 employees and retirees of 3,000 Illinois municipalities who are not policemen, firefighters and those covered by state pensions. Among its boasts is that it will be reducing contributions made by municipal employers from 11.73% of payroll to 11.34%. Also, it’s “well funded,” in its words —

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Does the Illinois Constitution prohibit taxpayer relief from pension promises? – WP Guest

  By: Joe Mathewson*   As the need for taxpayer relief from the unconscionable debts our elected leaders have amassed becomes more and more acute, two questions arise:   1. When will the Illinois legislature, due to adjourn at the end of May, address (and pass!) the necessary permissive legislation to authorize municipalities, including school districts and other special districts, to file for bankruptcy protection under Chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code? The City of Chicago, the Chicago Public Schools and other debt-ridden municipalities have offered no plans for taxpayer relief, much less actual payment of these impossible obligations,

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CTU Has the Answer: New or Higher Taxes on Vehicles, SSA, Star Wars, Personal Property Rental, Rideshare, Millionaires, Financial Transactions, Progressive Income, TIFs, Hotels, Commercial Property and, Yes, a Head Tax – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   “We have a recovery plan that the school district and the city council should consider,” says Chicago Teachers Union President Karen Lewis in release yesterday. “We look forward to working with you and members of the city council.”   Read the whole list in their “revenue recovery plan” contained in the release, but here’s the real gem: They’d like to reinstate arguably the most job-killing, despised, idiotic tax in history — the head tax. That’s a per-employee tax on employers, and they want it levied at four times the level it was previously levied in Chicago.

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$12 Billion Sits Unused With Illinois Treasurer. Why? – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon* What sense is there letting $11.5 to $14 billion of state money sit around indefinitely, unused, invested mostly short term and earning little? The Illinois Treasurer’s holdings are an important part of the state’s overall situation, so the question should have an obvious answer. It doesn’t. In fact, digging into the question exposes a subject so nontransparent that the general public, and probably most legislators, can’t be expected to assess it. Here’s what we know: As of the end of last month, the Treasurer held $12.2 billion of state money, called the State Portfolio. It’s invested

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The Confiscation Continues: New Study Shows Illinois Property Tax Over 2X National Average, Highest in U.S. – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   CoreLogic, a California-based financial data firm, today released its analysis showing average Illinois property taxes of 2.67%, over twice the national average of 1.31%. Illinois is the highest in the nation.   Even those averages disguise the personal tragedy inflicted on hundreds of thousands of families whose rates far exceed that, robbing those owners of their home equity. We looked in detail in November at those averages for Chicago’s south suburbs, where average rates exceed a suicidal 5% per year. Plenty of other Chicago area suburbs are just as bad, as we detailed in a

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New Jersey’s Warning to Illinois on Flight and Inequality – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon* One person’s move from New Jersey to Florida for tax reasons had New Jersey leader’s “freaking out” this month, according to the Associated Press. It should have Illinois’ leaders freaking out, too, along with anybody concerned about inequality, which should be all of us. . “We may be facing an unusual degree of income-tax forecast risk,” this year, said a budget official there, citing Tepper’s planned move as prime cause for concern. Where the story gets interesting is the interplay with inequality, and Fortune had a particularly thoughtful article on that. “New Jersey’s tax problem is

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‘Why Are Conservative Girls So Pretty?’ — The Great Debate Begins

  By: Mark Glennon*   Hey, that’s not our our question or our headline, so chill.   It is, though, for a rather serious article yesterday in the right-leaning publication, The Federalist. The left’s response came fast with two pieces in The New Republic, linked here and here, and they added pictures, like the one on the right.   I won’t touch this with a pole, so you read the articles and decide for yourself. The fate of the nation may turn on this.   I have been wondering, however, when pundits will start analyzing voter response to the background

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Baffled by Conduct of Chicago Teachers? You Probably Haven’t Read ‘Rules for Radicals’ – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Why on earth, you might ask, would the Chicago Teachers’ Union be so anxious to strike against a school district so clearly unable to meet their demands? And what sense is there in hurling extraordinary insults against the guy who would have to sign off on most of what they want  — Governor Rauner? Today, CTU President Karen Lewis said Rauner is “a new ISIS recruit.” She asked, “Has Homeland Security checked this man out yet? Because the things he’s doing look like acts of terror on poor and working class people.”   It’s all

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Dems Have Answer for Illinois Fiscal Crisis: Tax Cut for 99%, Soak the 1%! – WP Original

  “When the people find that they can vote themselves money that will herald the end of the republic.” – Ben Franklin   By Mark Glennon*   Unbelieveable. State Rep. Lou Lang (D-Skokie), a major lietenant of House Speaker Michael Madigan, today proposed a graduated income tax under which 99% of Illinois taxpayers would get a cut. One-percenters would see rates increase gradually up to 9.75%. More specifically, according to the Chicago Tribune:   Under Lang’s proposal, taxpayers who are married and filing a joint return or a head of a household would pay 3.5 percent for income of $200,000

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Illinois’ Pension Quicksand: A Quick Way to Measure it – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   For those of you frustrated by obscure pension reporting, here’s a simple way to look just a few numbers and get a pretty good feel on one important measure: How much would it cost per year just to stay even? That is, what does it take from taxpayers to keep a pension from falling further into the abyss? Then, compare that to what taxpayers are actually putting in. I’ll do that for Illinois pensions, which, as you will see, are falling far short.   Start with the unfunded liability. That’s what’s owed for work already

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Finally, A Serious, Productive National Debate About Trade? Don’t Count On It – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   It’s a lesson I first learned over thirty years ago as a law clerk one summer in the State Department’s Office of Trade, and it’s been reinforced ever since:  If you intend to get seriously educated on foreign trade agreements, beware, because you probably won’t succeed on your own. Few topics are this complex and few are so endlessly subject to deceitful arguments — straw man simplifications, ivory tower theory, cherry-picked numbers and self-interested distortions. All sides are often guilty — corporations, labor, our trade negotiators and free trade supporters (of which I am one).

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Report: Chicago Among Four Cities With Largest Exodus of Millionaires in the World Last Year – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   A recent report by New World Wealth identifies which cities and countries had the largest net inflow and outflow of millionaires in 2015. Chicago had the third largest net outflow based on the raw numbers — 3,000, and fourth by percentage — 2%.  The full report is linked here.The other top cities for outflows, according to the report are in the chart below.     According to IBTimes, “the report was based on data collected from investor visa programme statistics of each country; annual interviews with around 800 global high net worth individuals and with

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Onward Towards the Abyss: Chicago’s Pension Decision – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   It only gets worse. Last week’s Illinois Supreme Court decision was no surprise, but the real news was about reaction to it, or, more specifically, non-reaction. Chicago remains cracked up on denial. The numbers are insurmountable without radical reforms, almost certainly including bankruptcy.   The decision itself: The primary holding was widely expected. The court had earlier made clear that cuts in pension benefits are unconstitutional. The invalidated reform law would have cut benefits paid by two of the city’s four pensions. Pursing a such a futile case was just another chapter in the playbook

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Hate-Baiting and Race-Baiting Turned Surreal in Chicago on Friday Night – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon* I was at the Illinois GOP event at the Palmer House in Chicago Friday night, which was the other target of protesters along with Donald Trump’s cancelled event at UIC. Before going, I read an email from my U.S. Congresswoman, Jan Schakowky, calling for protests at both events. It read: Donald Trump, Bruce Rauner, and Ted Cruz are going to descend on Chicago to spread their message of intolerance, racism, and hate. We need to stand up to their disgusting rhetoric and remind them that Chicago won’t tolerate the garbage they are spewing. I saw plenty of

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Huge, Blind Reliance on State Exposed by Illinois Fiscal Crisis – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Did you know Catholic Charities is Illinois’ largest social service provider and gets 70% of its funding from the state? I didn’t. Perhaps the most surprising aspect of Illinois’ financial crisis is the depth of its impact on social services commonly thought to be privately funded or otherwise not heavily reliant on state money. Same, to some extent, for higher education.   Was the plight most of them face today foreseeable? Definitely. Avoidable? Not so clear.   Major cutbacks loom for groups like Catholic Charities, or have been made already. Catholic Charities, with a budget

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Pension Lawsuits and the Blame Game: Detroit is Harbinger of the Inevitable – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Detroit last week gave us a glimpse of what to expect on a much larger scale in Chicago and across the country as the sheets are gradually pulled off on public pensions.   Reality ultimately invalidates wrong assumptions. In the public pension world, that means taxpayer liabilities eventually will spike. Scapegoats will be found, fairly or not. Lawsuits will come. Heads must roll as anger erupts — all financial meltdowns are that way. Officeholders and voters bear primary responsibility, but that won’t matter.   Detroit’s mayor announced the startling (to some) conclusion that the city’s

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Municipal Bankruptcy Brings Joy to Taxpayers – WP Guest

  By: Joe Mathewson*   Chicago Public Schools’ desperate and very costly quest for buyers of its recent $725-million bond issue (cut from $875 million) is a harbinger of peril ahead, not only for CPS but for the City of Chicago and other Illinois local governments and special districts relying fatuously on borrowing to pay current expenses.   If the Illinois legislature finally passes a pending bill permitting municipalities and special districts to seek relief in U.S. Bankruptcy Court, there might be a parade of them knocking on that door. They’d be well received, for Chapter 9 of the Bankruptcy

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The Civic Federation Has Lost Its Way – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   The Civic Federation had a long, proud history providing an important check on state and local financial management. It sounded the alarm loudly long ago about Illinois’ problems: “Doomsday is here,” said its President, Laurence Msall, six years ago.   No more. A noticeable change occurred about three or four years ago. Since then, the alarms have softened. Critical issues are overlooked or given lip service. Limp pension reform proposals dominate. Dire implications of its own research pass without comment.   Now, it has worsened. The Civic Federation has become part of the problem. Last

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Kumbaya Won’t Fix Illinois – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   “Politicians, do your jobs.” “Compromise.” “Can’t we all get along?” In the endless repetition of calls like that, the underlying thought is that “passing a budget” means spending cuts now painfully felt will go away.   They won’t. They can’t. It doesn’t matter whether one or the other side caves completely or they split the difference — for a number of years, that is, until longer term solutions hopefully can pass and take hold.   As Comptroller Leslie Munger recently pointed out, if we tried to cover current operations from an income tax increase, the

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New Study Details Illinois Pension Excess at the Top, Hardship Below – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Public union leaders forever pound their chests about wealth inequality and how our pension system protects the middle class. In fact, Illinois public pensions may be the worst tale of two cities. The gluttony bankrupting us is at the top, which includes union leadership, but it’s very a very different story for the rest.   A great new research piece on Teacherspensions.org, a project of Bellweather Education Partners, looks at it for Illinois teachers. Remember from earlier stories that the average member of the state’s teacher retirement system retiring now after working 33 years for

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Illinois Fire and Police Pension Actuary Facing Actuarial Discipline – WP Exclusive

  By:  Mark Glennon*   WirePoints has learned that the Actuarial Board of Counseling and Discipline (the ABCD) recently recommended that Timothy Sharpe, actuary to dozens of troubled Illinois fire and police pension funds, be expelled from membership in the American Academy of Actuaries. If the Academy implements the recommendation, it will be very unusual since only 11 actuaries have been expelled from the Academy since 1975 and only 20 have been otherwise publicly disciplined (http://actuary.org/content/public-discipline).   The recommendation is the result of separate complaints by two actuaries, one by actuary Tia Goss Sawhney. Those complaints followed three prior complaints,

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Fight or Flight? – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Boy, do I get emails here. A regular one in particular makes me squirm. It’s not any of the insults like “vulture capitalist” or “pension thief.”  Those are fine. Have at it.   It’s when I’m asked by Illinoisans, usually young ones, whether they should leave. I’m uncomfortable playing career planner, especially when financial interests have to be balanced against personal issues like leaving one’s home and family. Most importantly, there’s no single answer. But I can’t escape the question, especially when asked what I am doing.   Let’s take the economic self-interest matter first

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Updated: What Are the CTU and CPS thinking? No, seriously. – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   In its statement yesterday announcing rejection of the contract offer made by Chicago Public Schools, the Chicago Teachers Union included this:        CPS’ uses this math to plug its budget hole: $200 million from the state for pensions $150 million from the state in a school aid formula change $170 million from a new local property tax levy for pensions $150 to $175 million from eliminating the teacher’s pension pickup and from increased healthcare costs.   That’s about $700 million. But the offering documents for CPS’s struggling bond offering say its annual structural deficit

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Municipal Bankruptcy Debate Begins in Illinois: Expect Mass Ignorance and Distortion – WP Original

Behold the Chicago Cubs. By: Mark Glennon* The inevitable is here. The real importance of Governor Rauner’s proposal to authorize optional bankruptcy for Chicago Public Schools and the city is putting bankruptcy into the mainstream narrative. That’s good, and years overdue, but it also means we’ll be doubling down on the confusion, ignorance and political distortion that has plagued the debate about our fiscal crisis. On this site we will focus hard on ensuring that all good articles about municipal bankruptcy for Illinois get posted, and we’ll try to cut through the fog.  It’s not an easy topic, as I

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More Pension Deceit and Hypocrisy from Union-Backed CTBA – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon* The Center for Tax and Budget Accountability today released a report titled, Public Pensions: Frequently Asked Questions. The “average” annual pension benefit for Illinois statewide pensions is just $45,832, says the report. Sounds pretty reasonable, which is why “averages” like that have been central to public unions’ messaging about pensions for years. It’s bunk. While it might be true in a very literal sense, it’s so misleading and incomplete that it can only be described as dishonest. Here’s why: “Average” pensions include those who work only part of their careers in the system providing the pension.

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Who Is To Blame for the Status of the Chicago Teachers’ Pension Fund? – WP Guest

  Preface: The following was submitted by “A Recovering Pension Actuary” – somebody I believe to be knowledgeable and credible who asked to be kept anonymous. I certainly think it’s true that actuaries shouldn’t bear too much blame for the problems with Chicago Teachers’ Pension Fund and our other unfunded pensions. Beyond that, I’ll let you judge for yourself. -Mark Glennon   No one blames the coroner for a homicide that he examines; people hold the killer accountable. Likewise, we shouldn’t castigate the actuaries for the funded status of the CTPF – the real villains are the legislators in Springfield.

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New Study: Chicago has worst unfunded pension liability as a percentage of revenue among major cities – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   A new study by the Center for State and Local Government Excellence looks at city unfunded pension liabilities under new governmental accounting standards. Some cities, unlike Chicago, participate in state-wide pension “cost-sharing” plans. The new standards require each city to include its shared liability in such plans, which increases their reported liability. This new study reflects those changes and measures unfunded liability as a percentage of each city’s revenue.   Despite those negative adjustments for other cities, Chicago is worst of 173 cities measured. Its unfunded pension liabilities are 359% of its revenues The 173-city average

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To Judge Rauner’s First Year, Step Back, Think Broadly – WP Original

  “There is no history, only biography.” -Ralph Waldo Emerson   Don’t look just at the trees as you read the articles grading Bruce Rauner on this first inauguration anniversary — whether his specific and tangible changes were enough given the legislature he had. That’s important, but there’s more.   See the forest. Consider the entirely of what changed since he arrived.   It’s an entirely new paradigm in Springfield. Once forbidden topics are now debated. Major directional change finally is at least on the table. Most importantly, a redirected and reinvigorated Republican party is setting a course for restoration

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A Galling Boast in Chicago’s Bond Pitch: Haves Replacing Have Nots – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon* One particular piece of bragging in the offering materials** for Chicago’s upcoming bond sale caught my attention. No, it wasn’t any of the silly ones like “stable population and business base” or “proven record of implementing reforms.” And, no, it wasn’t any of the obvious ones like “commitment to raising revenues.” It was this one: “gaining high income households rapidly, rising median family income.” That seems harmless on its face, but what’s it really saying? Let’s think about it remembering that the city’s population is declining and factor in some other recent news. It’s not something self-styled

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The Machine Must Be Destroyed – WP Original

“Carthage must be destroyed.” – Cato the Elder, Roman Senator By: Mark Glennon* The core identity of moral and fiscal bankruptcy in Illinois government cannot be denied. It controls the Illinois General Assembly, Chicago and Cook County.  “The machine” isn’t often used to describe it any longer, but the “Chicago way” now universally communicates its infamy. It has defied its end as persistently as did Carthage before Cato. Carthage was a mortal threat to the Roman Republic in the second century BC and had rebuilt itself time and again after earlier Roman invasions. Its total destruction was Rome’s only option,

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Our Ten Most Popular Stories of 2015

  By: Mark Glennon*   These stories got the most page views on this site over the past year. This is perhaps a bit distorted towards more recent ones because our readership is increasing rapidly, but property taxes and pensions clearly are the biggest issues for readers here. Rightly so:   #1  Suicidal Property Tax Rates and the Collapse of Chicago’s South Suburbs   #2  Reality Shock: The Highest Property Tax Rates in Cook and Its Collar Counties   #3  New Workers Subsidizing Illinois’ Surging $100,000/year Pension Club   #4  Open mic delivers priceless audio sample of Chicago area government

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Ugly: Chicago Public School Teachers’ Pension Releases New Actuary Report – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Last week, the Chicago Public School Teachers’ Pension Fund posted its actuarial report for the 2015 fiscal year that ended June 30. Like the four pensions for the city itself, that pension for the school district is a major item in Chicago’s financial crisis.   First, a note about the report itself. It’s the usual for public pension actuarial reports — full of obfuscation, loose ends, hidden issues and terms used inconsistently. It presumably complies with accepted standards, but that’s the problem. Like almost all public pension reports, few reporters, policy makers or pension trustees

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The Best, Worst, Wisest and Dumbest Quotes on Illinois’ Economy and Government of 2015 – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Steel yourself. Don’t expect many laughs. This site is about economics, “the dismal science,” and something more dismal, Illinois government. Here are the most notable quotes for 2015:   Truer words never spoken: “Nobody here really gives a fuck. Everybody here is sleeping. The engineers, everyone that’s here on midnights. They are all fucking sleeping somewhere.”  A security officer at a the water reclamation plant in southwest suburban Stickney.  He accidentally left the microphone open on his radio as he showed the ropes to a new employee, and the conversation was recorded. It’s a perfect

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Why Lincolnshire’s Right-To-Work Enactment Is So Important – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   We told you early this year that right-to-work would likely come to Illinois but it would have nothing to do with what Governor Rauner or the General Assembly do in Springfield, and it would come locally. That’s what happened last night in Lincolnshire, where the village board, by a five to one vote, made the town a right to work zone. This was not like other votes taken earlier this year by other towns, which were nonbinding expressions of policy. Lincolnshire actually enacted right-to-work, and it potentially sets a huge precedent.   You may recall

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Union Collective Bargaining Agreements Linked to Chicago Police Misconduct by Independent Study – WP Original

  “I could hire and fire at will.” Adlai Stevenson III, calling for a return to how things worked when he was Illinois Treasurer from 1967 – 1970.   By: Mark Glennon*   Twelve months ago, the City of Chicago received a 70-page independent report on police misconduct with recommendations for changes. The lead authors were Ron Safer, Managing Partner at the Schiff Harden and formerly Chief of the Criminal Division at the U.S. Attorney’s office in Chicago, and James O’Keefe, Ph.D., of A.T. Kearney. Titled, “Preventing and Disciplining Police Misconduct,” the study addressed procedures intended both to prevent and

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It’s Just Math: Time for Illinois’ Pension and Fiscal Reform Opponents to Put Up or Go Away – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   It comes down to a single question in Illinois. Everybody with an opinion about the financial mess should be forced to try to answer: What conceivable combination of tax increases and spending cuts would solve Illinois’ state and local fiscal crises without drastic reforms including cuts in pension benefits and an agenda that grows the tax base?   There is none. For three years we’ve linked here to every significant article, report and analysis we can find, from all sides. None has come remotely close to suggesting an answer. We’ve defied critics in the comments

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Reality Shock: The Highest Property Tax Rates in Cook and Its Collar Counties – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon* Nobody of any political stripe or party can defend property tax rates now exploding in many communities surrounding Chicago. Aside from rank unfairness, some towns are on a clear road towards self-destruction. The resulting loss in home values is a personal tragedy for those who can least afford it, making this is an issue on which progressives and conservatives must agree. The crisis will worsen because stunningly large, further bills have just been stuck in the drawer, not yet sent — unfunded municipal pension liabilities. This article collects data on the towns and villages surrounding Chicago

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Suicidal Property Tax Rates and the Collapse of Chicago’s South Suburbs – WP Original

“Don’t go past the top of the curve.” -Robert P. Inman, Professor of Business Economics and Public Policy, Wharton School By: Mark Glennon* Chicago’s south suburbs are in a death spiral and property taxes are central to the story. Most numbers reported to date have been spotty, though anecdotes are common about abandoned properties and underwater homeowners unable to sell because of property taxes. This article collects the empirical data more comprehensively from a variety of sources, most of which have become available only recently. Rates, indeed, have surpassed what any rational person could defend. The numbers provide a stark

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‘Rahm’s Ramp’: The Madness of Chicago’s Pension ‘Reform’ – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   If you’re not exasperated  by Chicago’s approach to pension “reform,” you haven’t been paying attention.   The absurdity into which it has descended is anything but “reform.” Nothing good will come out of the Illinois Supreme Court’s decision on the reform case it heard this week. In fact, upholding Chicago’s reform law could constitutionally lock in pension funding obligations far beyond what taxpayers would endure. Here’s a recap:   On Tuesday the Illinois Supreme Court heard oral arguments in the appeal on SB1922. That law, which a trial court earlier struck down, would reduce benefits for

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Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan Sued for Refusing to Properly Defend Workers’ Comp Claims – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Late yesterday the Illinois Department of Central Management Services (CMS) filed a lawsuit against Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan alleging she is refusing to discharge her duty to properly defend the state against certain workers compensation claims.   The complaint, styled Tyrell v. Madigan, is linked here. The lawsuit was brought in the name of Tom Tyrell in his capacity as Director of CMS. It pertains to home care workers called “personal assistants.” According to the complaint, there are about 30,000 personal assistants in Illinois who have filed hundreds of workers compensation claims against the

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Staged: A Particularly Dishonest ‘Town Hall’ Meeting on Budget With IL Rep. Robyn Gabel – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon* Robyn Gabel (D-Evanston) is a member of the Illinois House, representing the 18th District in Chicago’s north suburbs. Monday evening I went to  what she had earlier described as a town hall meeting “to discuss the current State of Illinois budget impasse and my ongoing efforts to pass a balanced budget that protects our state’s most vulnerable individuals.” As the meeting started Gabel said she wanted the meeting to be “as interactive as possible.” An elderly man in front raised his hand and said he understood there was some good news about funding for child care

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New Workers Subsidizing Illinois’ Surging $100,000/Year Pension Club – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   The number of public retirees receiving pensions over $100,000 in Illinois jumped this year to 7,407, up 1,384 since last year. The chart on the right shows the growth in that number since 2012.   The numbers are extracted from the  Better Government Association’s pension database. They include only 17 pensions — the statewide pensions and those for Chicago and the Cook County area.  They do not include retirees in the 655 pensions for police and firefighters outside of the City of Chicago, for which the same data are not readily available.   Of those

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A Big Myth Persists: Defining Away Part of the Pension Crisis – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon* Look, maybe it would be reasonable to argue that solving only part of our pension crisis is the best we can possibly do. But it’s another thing entirely to start the discussion simply by defining away a large percentage of the problem. Unbelievably, that’s routine. The latest culprit is an important reporter, Karen Pierog, who covers pensions for Reuters. Her columns are widely reprinted. Yesterday, in an article about the portion of an Illinois pension’s liability that’s funded, she said it’s “still far below the 80 percent level considered healthy.” No, 80% is not considered healthy. That’s

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‘Super Chapter 9’ Bankruptcy: Start Following the Debate – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   If you haven’t followed Puerto Rico’s financial crisis, serious debate now focuses on authorizing it to file a “Super Chapter 9” municipal bankruptcy. As a territory, Puerto Rico currently cannot file under the Bankruptcy Code. That can be changed easily by Congress with the President’s signature, however. They can also change Chapter 9 of the Bankruptcy Code to make it a faster, firmer and more predictable route to a robust recovery.   And the Bankruptcy Code, it’s widely accepted, trumps state limitations on impairing pension obligations. Federal power to make and change bankruptcy law is

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U.K. May Include Pensions in ‘Stress Tests.’ IL & U.S Would be PTSD Corpses if Fed Did Same – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   The U.K.’s central bank was reported today to be considering expanding its stress tests to include pensions. Stress tests are done by central banks to gauge systemic threats to a nation’s economy under different scenarios.   Memo to Fed in case you’re considering same for U.S. public pensions (and we know you read WirePoints closely): No need to bother. Calling it “stress” would be looking backward. It would be more like examining a Post Dramatic Stress Disorder victim at the morgue. We already know public pension unfunded liabilities exceed any Wall Street scam ever —

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Why Jim Edgar Has Zero Credibility on Illinois Budget, Pensions: It’s Not Just the ‘Edgar Ramp’ – WP Original

  “Seems that not all recent Illinois governors end up in prison, but perhaps they should be jailed for this crap.” –Actuary Mary Pat Campbell   By: Mark Glennon*   Former Illinois Governor Jim Edgar is getting lots of attention for his recent comments that Governor Rauner should give in to Democrat and public union positions to resolve the state’s budget impasse. Rauner shouldn’t “hold the budget hostage” by demanding reforms as a precondition to the tax increases that budget resolution necessarily entails, Edgar said.   Here’s why he has no credibility on that. Keep in mind that during most

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The Shock and Awe Budget Address Rahm Should Have Given – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon* If Mayor Emanuel was intent on halting Chicago’s downward spiral and if we had a General Assembly in Springfield willing to authorize him to do it, his budget address would have included things like this: Upon completion of this speech I am ordering implementation, as rapidly as law allows, of the emergency financial measures I will describe. Each of these measures can and will be accomplished either through voluntary agreement, legislation or bankruptcy. It is important to understand the role of bankruptcy as an option. We have prepared a full reorganization plan that incorporates these measures,

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Chicago’s Pension Pit in Simple Numbers – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   If you understand nothing else about Chicago’s budget, learn these few, basic numbers on its pensions and property taxes.   The chart below is from the city’s new proposed budget and reflects the historic property tax increase everybody is fretting about. It shows that 60.7%  — about $786 million — of those taxes are budgeted to go to pensions in the coming year.     But remember that’s not nearly enough for the pensions.  The city would have to be contributing $1.7 billion, not $786 million, to begin funding its four pensions properly, and even

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Intergenerational Theft: Illinois Teacher Pension Debt Per Student Rivals College Loan ‘Crisis’ – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Illinois is among the worst states in the college student debt “crisis,” as it’s often called. Per student college debt here averages $28,543, according to the Institute for College Access & Success.   But look at unfunded teacher pension liabilities on a ‘per student’ basis and you get about the same. That’s the calculation made for all fifty states by the National Council on Teacher Quality in a report earlier this year. Illinois is the very worst by that measure: $27,022 of unfunded teacher pension debt per student, according to the report (p. 78).  

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Meet Mr. and Ms. Average. Firefighter & Teacher. Retired at 58. Cash Value of Pensions? About $3.5 Million – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon* Mr. Average was a Chicago firefighter who retired last year. His wife worked outside the home, as in most families today. Ms. Average taught in a Chicago suburban school and she retired last year, too, when both of them were 58 years old. Mr. Average worked 30 1/2  years as a firefighter and Ms. Average worked 33 years as a teacher. What is their combined pension? How much money would a couple without a pension need to be in the same financial position as Mr. and Ms. Average? Here’s the analysis based on pension and salary

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Russia’s Pravda Ridicules Fiscal Management of Chicago, Kankakee – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   An article today in Russia’s Pravda lectures us: “If you’ve studied cost accounting at a graduate level, did cost accounting work and you look at publicly available financial data from these cities, it’s like looking at nightmare on main street parts I, II, III and IV about to happen.”   “Chicago or LA, which one is more likely to collapse first? Chicago,” they say.   And, “Kankakee County IL or Perry County KY? Kankakee County is more likely to go belly up first.”   Yes, they ridiculed fiscal profligacy across America, but Chicago and Kankakee

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Updated: New Biennial Report on All Illinois Pensions Shows Unfunded Liabilities Up $14 Billion – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   [Update 10/2/15: The Department of Insurance report discussed below originally said unfunded liabilities increased $47 billion from $111 billion two years ago, which we cited in an earlier version of this article. I contacted the Department of Insurance to alert them that those numbers were not consistent with the previous biennial report, and they corrected the new report. The corrected numbers are cited below.]   The Illinois Department of Insurance publishes, every two years, a compilation of data submitted by all of Illinois’ 672 public pensions. Hot off the press, here is the link to its

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A Must-Watch Video for Pension Crisis Followers: Actuaries ‘Enable and Abet’ the Crisis

  By: Mark Glennon*   If you have a serious interest in how our public pension crisis arose and continues to grow, invest 40 minutes watching the video linked here. It’s a recent presentation by Jeremy Gold, a nationally prominent independent actuary who has been speaking up boldly about his profession’s failure. His slides are linked here.  “I’m here to tell you a story about how a profession failed to fulfill its duties to the public and thus enabled and abetted the very real crisis in public pension plans,” he starts out.   It’s all there — all the things

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Salary and Pension Hikes Far Beyond Inflation Account for Most of Chicago Property Tax Raise – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   How could a city that seems so prosperous be so broke? Why the big tax hikes?   Aside from pensions, the most obvious reason is average pay increases far beyond inflation. Those excess pay increases account for over half of Chicago’s proposed $588 million property tax increase. And as for pension benefit hikes exceeding inflation, well, you better sit down.   Let’s look at just police and fire salaries. Suppose average pay was the same today as in 1985, adjusted upward only for the Consumer Price Index. Understand that this is average salary across the

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OK, Who’s the Joker Who Gave Rahm A Different City’s Budget Address to Read? – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Man, what a screw up. Mayor Rahm Emanuel yesterday gave Chicago’s annual budget address. The one he gave must have been meant for a different city. All we know for sure is it had nothing to do with Chicago.   I’m thinking maybe it was for Pflugerville, Texas. Don’t laugh. I’ve been to Pflugerville. They have their act together. They even have their own song. Maybe some speechwriter stuck the budget address for another city into Rahm’s teleprompter.   Let’s go through the speech he gave and try to fill in what he no doubt

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‘The Silo Effect’: Illinois’ Extreme Case Explains So Much – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   The Silo Effect is a new book by the Financial Times’ U.S. Managing Editor, Gillian Tett. Read it thinking about Illinois and its municipalities and you’ll cringe, even though it’s not expressly about that. The silo effect permeates Illinois government as well as coverage of our financial crisis by ratings agencies, municipal bond analysts and the press.   “The silo effect” is Tett’s term for an old problem at which she takes a modern look: In large organizations and on complex topics, fragmentation and specialization undermine cooperation and make it nearly impossible to get an

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Chicago Firefighter and Police Salaries and Pensions, Then and Now – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Compensation for firefighters and police is the third rail nobody wants to talk about. The key numbers are below, including what happened over the last thirty years.   Both the police and firefighter pensions have only about one-forth of the assets they should have to pay benefits promised — officially, that is. The real numbers are worse and we will be writing separately about that.   There’s good reason why most of us lay off the subject of compensation for police and fire. I admit to some bias, too. My relatives include lots of the

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Illinois’ Forgotten, Monstrous Healthcare Liability to Public Pensioners – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   It still hasn’t sunk in. Our state pension crisis is nearly always quantified by the press as a “$111 billion unfunded liability.”   What’s most conspicuously overlooked is that, thanks to the Illinois Supreme Court’s decision in the Kanerva case last year, lifetime healthcare is also a constitutionally protected benefit for Illinois pensioners that can’t be diminished or impaired. That liability is entirely unfunded. It’s a pay-as-you-go system. Taxpayers many decades from now will pay for healthcare for today’s workers.  Healthcare increases the unfunded liability by $56 billion — over 50% — making the true

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Turning Point: Is Illinois’ Broken Pension System Now Discouraging Public Service? – WP Original

  “Ask not about your retirement security.”   By: Mark Glennon*   A major turning point is coming soon that will change the pension debate, and it may be here already — a hopelessly broken retirement system driving people away from government service.   The primary argument for our public defined benefit pension system is usually this: The security it offers is needed to attract good employees, and public workers accept lower pay (arguably) than private workers in exchange for more generous retirement benefits.   Is that still true? Hasn’t it reversed and become a deterrent? Don’t public employees and

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Why Chicago’s $500 Million Property Tax Increase Won’t Solve Much – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   You’re dead wrong if you think the $500 million property tax increase now proposed for Chicago, the largest in its modern history, will solve much of its pension and fiscal crises. It won’t come close. You need look no further than the city’s own financial statements to see why.   Chicago’s 2014 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report was released in July (after the June 30 deadline required by law). Page 83 shows that, for the year ended this past December, Annual Pension Cost for the city’s four pensions was $1.788 billion. Total contributions made to those

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Illinois, NOW You’re Figuring Out That SB-1 Pension Reform Was a Gimmick? – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   J. Fred Giertz is emeritus faculty at the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois. Last week, he wrote an article widely republished across Illinois. It asks whether maybe, just maybe, SB-1, the pension reform law now invalidated, was a sham and a can-kick. There’s a big lesson here about how startlingly far behind the curve much of Illinois is on the pension crisis and the workings of the General Assembly.   Maybe the legislature was not incompetent, he says. They have a short time horizon and the chaos in Springfield

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Chicago Doubles Down on a Hairbrained Housing Ordinance – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Suppose we agree that something locally produced — anything, widgets let’s say  — is unaffordable for many people. And suppose we want to make those widgets more affordable. How does this solution sound? Pass a law ordering local widget makers to sell 10% of their widgets at a lower price. If they don’t, make them pay a fee and give the fee to the government to make widgets.   Put it that way to an average 12-year-old and I think we could guess at some answers: Widget makers would just go somewhere else. It’s not

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Donald Trump, We Don’t Do Ethnic Cleansings – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   It would take the equivalent of loading over 500 trains to ship all of Illinois’ illegal aliens out. Nationally, it would take over 30,000 trains using Donald Trump’s number of illegals here.   More than seven times the number of Albanians who Serbs tried to force out of Kosova in 1999 would be forcibly removed from the United States if Trump had his way. Not since World War II has so large an ethnic cleansing as Donald Trump wants been attempted.   The depravity of separating or removing millions of families would be matched by

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Bloated Pensions for Many Will Mean Retirement Hardship for Some in Illinois, But How Many? – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Few things irk real pension reformers more than the constant claim by opponents that protecting pensions is about defending the little guy. The opposite is true. Let’s explain and look at some numbers.   First, we’ll start with a premise, which is that most state and local pensions in Illinois as now scheduled will not be fully paid for the simple reason that they can’t be. One way or another, whether by default, bankruptcy, constitutional amendment or whatever, cuts will come. Regular readers here know that. If you don’t accept that premise, please either study

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Updated – He’s Back: Dave McKinney, Pensions, and Partisan Reporters – WP Original

Update 9/2/14. Dave McKinney has accepted a job a Reuters, and apparently will cover Illinois issues. This is a tragedy. Political reporters are not financial reporters. They just don’t know what they are talking about, regardless of bias. Can’t one major news agency, aside from The Bond Buyer, please assign somebody to Springfield who understands fiscal issues?   By: Mark Glennon*   What on earth was Crain’s thinking when it added Dave McKinney as a political columnist? Yesterday, it published a major piece by McKinney, The Illinois Pension Disaster: What Went Wrong. Crain’s says it will be publishing more by

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Hey Rahm, Cheerleaders Don’t Win Games – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Last week, a union leader and Mayor Emanuel teamed up to dump on Governor Rauner for repeatedly saying our business climate is bad. “I think now that the election is over, the governor needs to switch from a detractor-in-chief to a cheerleader-in-chief,” said Jorge Ramirez, Chicago AFL-CIO. “Having your agenda should not come at the expense of running down either the city or the state you’re out there promoting,” Emanuel added.   Cheerleading before candor, in other words. It’s not new. Before Rauner showed up, Illinois’ political establishment had others to blame for the same

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Are We Crazy in Chicago? Seriously, That Is. – WP Original

  “Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” ― Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland   By: Mark Glennon*   Is some form of madness behind the response of Chicago and Cook County to the death spiral they are in? Let’s first look at the headlines from just this past week because, like Alice, you may quickly find six crazy things you’ll have to accept:   – Two weeks after raising Cook County’s sales tax to the highest in the country, it’s now considering a pay increase of $130 million over five years. – Chicago may

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Another Record Month for Our Readership and a Note to Our Readers – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   July is another record month for our online traffic, which continues to surge.   Special thanks to some particularly well-informed readers who give us feedback both online and by email, especially you in the actuarial and muni bond industries.  Suggestions and criticisms are welcome. You can take our online, anonymous survey by clicking here.   And thanks to the growing list of media that have been quoting, linking or republishing us, which included The New York Times this month. We send tens of thousands of readers to other publishers through our links to their best stories,

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Harshest Critics of Public Pensions are Nobel Prize Winning Economists

By: Mark Glennon* Nobel Prize winning economists aren’t the hyperbolic type. They usually speak in measured tones, careful to protect the precision of their academic  viewpoints. Two of them have spoken openly about public pensions, including one about Illinois pensions. They are uncharacteristically harsh. First, there’s William F. Sharpe, a Stanford professor who won 1990 Nobel Prize for Economics for his work in developing models to aid investment decisions. The Financial Analysts Journal interviewed him last year. Here’s what he said: Is this a disaster? You bet….  It’s a crisis of epic proportions…. [Pensions] value liabilities at 7.5% or 8%

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The Madness Continues: What You Need to Know About the Chicago Pension Decision – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon* A Chicago trial judge, Rita Novak, today ruled that the pension reform law for two Chicago pensions is unconstitutional. Her full opinion is linked here. That ruling was entirely predictable and is a correct application of the Illinois Supreme Court’s ruling earlier this year invalidating SB-1, a pension reform law for state pensions. Like it or not, the supreme court said you can’t cut pension benefits. The reform law for Chicago’s pensions would have cut benefits. It’s that simple. It won’t be reversed on appeal. But Novak went much further, apparently rejecting an argument made by

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Illinois’ Tier 2 Pension Reforms: A Particularly Interesting Comment by a State Rep – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   You’ll recall that in 2010 Illinois passed, to widespread, bi-partisan applause, the “Tier 2” pension reforms. Under it, state and local workers starting after that year were put into a second category with far lower benefits.   Well, in hearings last week on a new pension reform proposal by Governor Rauner, Rep. Michael Zalewski (D-Chicago), said this:   “I think its fair to say members of this this committee have genuine concerns that when we created Tier 2 it wasn’t designed designed in a way to be a genuine benefit that people could rely on

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Why Illinois’ Pension Crisis Will Worsen Even Faster Than Before – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   If you think pensions for Illinois and its municipalities are in awful shape and worsening, just wait.   Illinois’ five statewide pensions report their positions annually, as of the end of June. Those reports will come out late this year. Most Chicago area pensions and many other municipalities report as of year end, so their 2015 reports won’t come out for another year. They will be uglier than anything we have seen. Most, almost certainly, will show funding levels deteriorating at an accelerating rate. Here’s why:   • The stock market has leveled off. Since

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Down the Drain: Cook County’s New Pension Report and its Sales Tax Increase – Updated – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Make no mistake about where the additional one percent Cook County sales tax will go, along with much more — into its pension. Ninety percent of it will go initially into the pension, according to Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, with that portion decreasing later. But will it?   The pension’s actuary just released its annual valuation report for the year ended in December. That document should be a key item informing voters and county board members about the vote on the tax increase: How much will it accomplish? What’s really going on with that

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Why Michigan’s Approach for Detroit’s Schools is Better Suited for Chicago’s – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon* The Detroit Public School District, like Chicago’s, is struggling for its financial life. Michigan Governor Rick Snyder earlier this year proposed a plan roughly comparable to the restructuring of General Motors that created a “new GM” to replace the old one, which allowed the new one to shed unaffordable debts and contracts. Under the plan proposed for Detroit schools, the “old school district” would be left in place to liquidate certain debt obligations of the Detroit Public Schools. A new Detroit school district would be created that would assume the educational duties. Some tax revenue would

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The Key Number in Chicago’s Pension Crisis Nobody Has – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   With tax increase proposals “popping up like weeds,” as one headline put it today, voters, particularly in Chicago, are justified in asking if those increases will solve much, or would just throw good money at an insoluble problem. This should be an all-important question for them: How much would taxes have to increase to properly fund the eleven overlapping pensions Chicago taxpayers are responsible for?   Incredibly, no source provides anything close to a useful answer. Without that answer, politicians and voters are driving blind. The sources that are available suffer from a variety of

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Tax Rate Objection Lawsuits Challenge Funding Needs of a District – WP Original

  By: Nancy Mathieson*   Most property owners are familiar with remedies for challenging their property’s assessment for tax purposes, but there’s a rarer, broader remedy occasionally asserted. In a typical property tax appeal, the owner tries to have his taxes reduced by challenging the assessor’s market value estimate, or its assessment related to similar neighboring properties.   In contrast, tax rate objection lawsuits generally involve groups of taxpayers looking for recourse. The lawsuits typically allege the taxing bodies are levying more than they are spending, storing the rest in savings and taking resources from businesses which need them in

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Pure Treachery: IL Attorney General Lisa Madigan Seeks to Halt Paychecks to State Workers – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan went to court yesterday to stop state worker paychecks during the government shutdown or to allow payment of no more $7.25 an hour — the minimum wage. That action, together with the background story behind it — use of the courts to deliberately sabotage an agreement both workers and the state want — comprise one of the most sordid chapters of Illinois politics in recent memory.   First, that background. As the July 1 deadline for a state budge approached, Democrats in the General Assembly sought to pressure Governor Rauner

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Why Rahm’s press conference on CPS was a major failure – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Chicagoans and bond investors are now demanding to hear solutions that are adequate, quantified, verifiable, long term and politically viable. Mayor Emanuel held a press conference today specifically addressing Chicago Public Schools, but he offered none of those elements, nor even an indication that they are considered important. Sentiment, therefore, will erode further. And the mysterious loan from the Chicago teachers’ pension to CPS was ignored, adding to its mystery.   Here’s what Rahm said:   – It’s morally disgraceful that students are being victimized.   – It’s all Springfield’s fault, due to years of

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Wholesale ‘Reconstitution’ of CPS: The Only Real Option? – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon* For the Chicago Public School system, it’s not just the near term cash crunch or the $634 million payment to its pension scheduled for the end of this month. CPS is a financial basket case — structurally and fundamentally insolvent. A dose of reality was administered recently by a financial report prepared by Ernst & Young, which has been widely discussed. Among it’s conclusions: CPS has effectively been running a deficit for the past four years of about $500 million annually, which has been mitigated by non-recurring revenue and deferral of pension payments…. Even with a UAAL

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From Ireland: Much in Tech Startups Familiar to Illinois, But Not All – WP Original

  Múineann gá seift. (Need teaches a plan.) -Gailic proverb   By: Mark Glennon*   A strange sense of  familiarity often strikes visitors to Ireland from Chicago, and no doubt from much of America. That’s no surprise given the ethnic background of so many of us, but spend some time looking at the technology startup community here and you’ll find it goes a wee bit furter. (They need to learn to pronounce th properly, as we do in Chicago — d.)   Illinois’ startup sector indeed has much in common with Ireland’s. The sector has over-performed in both despite sub-par

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Pekin Perplexed by Pension Pickle — Predictably – WP Original

    He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.” -Chinese Proverb   By: Mark Glennon*   Sorry to single you out, Pekin, Illinois, but we will use you as an example of the pension crisis now facing Illinois municipalities. Actually, we have noticed you because at least some of your city officials are asking good questions, which your local paper has reported. On that count you are ahead — most towns like you are keeping heads firmly implanted in the sand.   But answers have been elusive, which

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Illinois Municipal Bankruptcy: Updates and Further Thoughts – Updated – WP Original

 Updated 6/14/15 where indicated in italics. By: Mark Glennon*   HB298,  a bill to authorize Illinois municipalities (cities, towns, school districts, counties, etc.) to file under Chapter 9 of the Federal Bankruptcy Code, was introduced in the Illinois House earlier this year by Ron Sandack (R-Downers Grove). The bill was assigned to the Rules Committee, often a procedural purgatory, though prospects seem to be brightening a bit.   When introduced, it was typically shrugged off by most of the General Assembly’s controlling Democrats, but today they at least seem to be taking it seriously. Last week I heard Illinois Senator

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A WirePoints Article That Should Have Saved Taxpayers Millions – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   “Prepare to get sick,” we wrote, and “stop this now,” we put in bold face. That was on Thanksgiving Eve last year when we wrote here about a $224 million, clearly questionable spending binge quietly announced that afternoon by then lame duck Governor Pat Quinn. Many of the handouts, all with borrowed money, appeared to be pay off for political friendships or wasteful. Nobody else wrote about it.   Well, this week the Sun-Times wrote in detail about the full extent of that lame duck spending spree. It’s indeed sickening. Quinn’s administration raced to dole out

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The Civic Federation Reawakening? We Need the Business Community Now. – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   The Civic Federation of Chicago has a long, proud history as a watchdog for fiscal responsibility, particularly on pensions, providing an almost indispensable voice for the business community. They slipped in recent years, however, which raises some bigger questions about our whole business community. We will come back to that later, but first a bit of good news.   Yesterday, The Civic Federation published a piece on the funding changes for Chicago police and fire pensions recently passed by the General Assembly, which has not yet been sent to Gov. Rauner for signature. The Civic Federation

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Comments Submitted for the Actuarial Standards Board Hearing on Public Pensions

  By: Mark Glennon*   The Actuarial Standards Board is the standards setting body for actuaries in the United States, including actuaries who prepare the reports for public pensions.  On July 9 in Washington, the Board is holding public hearings on improvements and changes to be made in those standards. Unquestionable, deficiencies in those standards have been a leading cause of the pension crisis now strangling Illinois, Chicago and many other municipalities. Below are the written comments I submitted to the Board for its hearing.   Comments by Mark Glennon for the Actuarial Standards Board Hearing on Public Pension Issues

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‘Whistling Past the Graveyard’: An Actuary Looks at the New Chicago Pension Bill – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Steven Bourg is an enrolled pension actuary from Maryland. He has been watching events in Illinois and emailing me recently. By sheer coincidence, we discovered that we grew up within a few blocks of each other in Park Forest, a Chicago suburb, at the same time, but we’ve never met. (Must be some virus in the water there that induces hostility to pension scams.) Anyway, he did a quick take on the rough numbers for the bill covering two Chicago pensions — police and fire — that passed the General Assembly this weekend.  His view looks

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Your Cook County Property Tax Bill Would Have to Jump 51% Just to Halt Further Bleeding in County Pension – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   How much would your Cook County property taxes have to increases just to stop the bleeding in the county’s pension — just to halt the unfunded liability from growing? Well, Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle has been saying the unfunded liability is now growing at about $30 million per month, or $360 million per year. Let’s assume that’s right –a silly assumption because it’s probably much worse — but let’s go with her numbers.   Now, Cook County’s total property tax collections, according to its most recent financial statements, are about $700 million per

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Chicago’s Botched Pension ‘Reform’: A Preview for Other Illinois Municipalities – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Consider this:   – Chicago is negotiating to undue a key part of its 2014 pension reform, even while it fights in court to uphold the law. – The law it’s attempting to save in court is the very one that contributed to the credit downgrades and liquidity panic of the past few weeks. – Now, Chicago has concluded that it’s not liable for pension obligations after all. It might be right, but the argument is being squandered.   That’s only part of the craziness into which the city’s pension crisis has deteriorated, and it’s

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An Absolutely Crucial Issue for Chicago, Other IL Municipal Pensions is Unanswered – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   If Chicago or another Illinois municipality let its pensions run dry, either willfully or not, would that municipality be obligated to pay the pensions’ obligations? ‘Yes’ has been the widely assumed answer, but it’s in fact an open question, and the answer has monumental implications.   We were the only ones who saw the significance at the time, but buried in a few articles a couple weeks ago was mention that Chicago now claims it is not legally liable. On May 12, we wrote, as a comment on a link to a Chicago Tribune article, “This

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Mr. Market says Chicago bonds are junk – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Moody’s says Chicago’s credit is junk bond equivalent, but Fitch and S&P say ‘no.’   Take your pick, but the market now says its junk. One way to look at it is comparison to the two largest corporate junk bond exchange traded funds, HYG and JNK. Both of them are trading with yields under 6%. To make an apples-to-apples comparison, you can skim through current yields on Chicago’s taxable general obligation bonds here at the EMMA site, now usually on their most actively traded list. Most prices have traded down to yields now over 7%. Chicago

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Why the ‘consideration’ approach to pension reform is a gimmick – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Senate President John Cullerton has rekindled his idea that meaningful constitutional pension reform can be accomplished by offering a swap to pensioners — accept lower benefits in exchange for some sweetener. It’s called the “consideration” approach, and most of the press is reporting it as a serious alternative to the approach recently invalidated by the Illinois Supreme Court. Here’s what the City of Chicago, also searching desperately for a means to accomplish meaningful reform, said about it in a sworn court filing earlier this year:   Nor would ‘consideration’ work from an economic standpoint. To

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S&P, slated to rate upcoming Chicago bond sale, goes comparatively easy on downgrade. Hmmm. – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   S&P yesterday downgraded Chicago’s general obligation bonds to A- from A+, which the agency said was three notches above “junk” level. That’s comparatively mild since, on Tuesday, Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday pushed Chicago’s credit rating into its “junk” category.   Chicago plans to price offerings of $201 million and $182 million on May 19, as reported yesterday by Bloomberg.   And guess who is one of the two agencies slated to rate the new offering, hired by the city? S&P.   You take it from here. What a system.   We’ve been saying that, when

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No. We Will Not ‘Just Pay Up’ for Pensions – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   “We will just have to pay up.” That’s the conclusion many are now saying we must accept after the court decision invalidating Illinois pension reform.   No. We shouldn’t, we won’t, and we can’t.   When, since Sherman’s army burned Atlanta and marched to the sea, has anyone done more harm to an American city and state than our leadership has done to Chicago and Illinois? They remain in super-majority control of our legislature. Unless and until they turn around, we will use all legal means available to stop them from taking more from us.

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Reporters, Politicians Vie for Dumbest Reactions to Illinois Pension Ruling – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   With fear palpable in Illinois since invalidation of pension reform, you’d think reporters and politicians would now be up to speed on basic facts about Illinois pensions. Nope. Most heads are still in the stand. Denial, delay, extend and pretend still rule.   Among the most foolish reactions:   Rahm kicked it off by saying that Chicago’s pending reform plan is “not affected” by the ruling.  Dan Mihapolouos from the Sun-Times backed him up on television, saying that Chicago is different in many ways. Not true. The court could not have been more clear and

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What You Need to Know About Illinois Supreme Court’s Sweeping, Historic Pension Ruling – Analysis – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon* The Illinois Supreme Court today invalidated SB-1, the Illinois pension reform law from 2013. Though the ruling was anticipated, its consequences are staggering. The reform law was voided in its entirety. The “police powers” defense — the argument that the state should not have to pay pensions because it’s too broke — was rejected as a matter of law and no trial will proceed. The court said the constitutional pension protection clause, which says pensions cannot be diminished or impaired, means what it says, for the state and all its cities and towns. Here’s what you need

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Other States Balk at Multibillion Dollar Cost While Illinois Spends Blindly on Energy Alternatives – In Depth – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon* “Wait a minute,” I said to an Illinois House member at a recent forum, and repeated the question to be sure I had her answer right: “You’re a leading sponsor of a massive rewrite of our energy policy that may cost billions of dollars, but you’re telling me you have no idea how much it costs? “Yes,” she answered. She is not alone and that was no isolated incident about one bill. Cost to consumers for sustainable energy is rarely measured and made available to voters, in contrast to other states. Nobody in Illinois seems to care.

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Bill would levy special tax to fund Chicago teacher pension, reduce Chicago school funding – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   It has received little attention, but a bill (HB3695) recently proposed in Springfield would levy a special property tax in Chicago payable directly into the pension for Chicago teachers. It would be matched by a corresponding reduction in funding for the Chicago school system. By levying a tax at the rate of 0.26% on all property covered by the school system, the bill would raise an estimated $160 to $180 million for the pension, which would be taken away from the schools.   A post from the Retired Teachers Association of Chicago in support of

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About that Surprise Jump in Revenue for Illinois – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Despite the rollback in personal income tax rates from 5% to 3.75% in January, which also shrank withholding rates paid over to the state each month, April personal income tax receipts actually increased compared to April last year by 3.8%, or $96 million. Total tax receipts of all sources for the state also increased slightly, by 0.3%. That’s according to the monthly report released by the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability.   According to COGFA’s executive director,   March was a little bit stronger than expected but it wasn’t until April came along that

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Unfunded Mandates Are What Keeps Illinois Mayors Up At Night – WP Original

  By: Nancy Mathieson*   When a group of local mayors met at Congressman Bob Dold’s (IL-10) recent roundtable discussion, it didn’t take long for them to realize they already had a consensus about their most worrisome issue. (Hint: it’s not rising property taxes.)   What keeps these mayors up at night is the proliferation of unfunded mandates: new regulations that require local governments to perform certain actions with no additional funding. According to the Illinois Municipal League, state lawmakers have introduced a total of 59 unfunded mandates during the 2015 legislative session (see study). The mandates fall into the

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‘Staggering,’ Says New Report on Chicago’s Pension Contribution Shortfalls – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   A research report recently issued by Nuveen Asset Management provides another take on the total annual liability Chicago taxpayers would face if they properly funded pensions for the city’s overlapping layers of government. Brace yourself.   Chicago has been contributing to its pensions only about one-forth of what Nuveen calls Annual Pension Cost — “the amount determined by actuaries to keep the plans solvent.” (We note that S&P recently said essentially the same thing.) The unpaid portion of the city’s pension contribution exceeded $1.2 billion, “a figure representing an astonishing 43% of the city’s general

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Legislation introduced to drive capital out Illinois — in effect – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   You might think Illinois would value the presence of venture capital funds, hedge funds, real estate funds and private equity, which is one of its major assets.   A bill has been introduced in Springfield to slap a special 3% annual tax on the managers of those and any other investment vehicles that have their principal places of business in Illinois and have at least $10 billion under management.  It’s sponsored by Rep. Christian Mitchell (D-Chicago) and is in the form of an amendment to a bill (HB0670) sponsored by House Speaker Michael Madigan. The

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Bankruptcy for Illinois Municipalities: Things We Know and Things We Can’t Know – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon* Since the ‘B’ word is now being spoken in Chicago and other Illinois cities, here are some key things to keep in mind as the debate about bankruptcy for Illinois municipalities emerges: • First, Springfield has not yet authorized its towns, cities, counties and other local units to file bankruptcy, though a bill has been introduced to do that by Reps. Sandack and Ives. Only municipalities in states that have authorized bankruptcy can file under the Federal Bankruptcy Code. Chapter 9 of the Code is for those municipalities. (Our primer on that from two years ago is

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A Frightening Week Awaits CPS and All of Chicago – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   There’s no point in sugarcoating this. The financial crisis at the Chicago Public School District may come to a head this week, and the impact will extend beyond the school system. A CPS bond sale is scheduled for Tuesday, which is widely seen by financial markets as a test of whether it has a pulse. Here is a summary of key points from various sources:   • CPS is just about out of cash, and its cash could be entirely wiped out on 48-hour notice, according to the Sun-Times. Specifically, the banks owed on $228

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Public Bankruptcy Talk Isn’t ‘Dangerous.’ Denial and Dereliction Are – WP Original

  “Bliss just isn’t worth the price.” -Rich Miller   By: Mark Glennon*   Dangerous talk of Chicago schools bankruptcy, — that’s the headline description today in a Crain’s story by Greg Hinz about Governor Rauner’s comments on the Chicago Public School system. Rauner is “pushing CPS or other governmental units into bankruptcy,” Hinz goes on to claim.   Really? Here’s what Rauner actually said:   I’m concerned that the Chicago Public Schools could end up needing to go bankrupt. That’s very possible. We have a mess. They would just have to restructure its debts and its contracts.   Earlier,

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Why Progressives Should Support Repeal of Illinois’ Pension Protection Clause – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   A core goal of progressivism is fundamentally right and noble — helping those most in need. But what actually works is where their views split with the rest of us, and that’s certainly true on pension reform. Illinois progressives appear universally opposed to repeal of the pension protection clause in the Illinois Constitution. That shouldn’t be so. All sides should agree: Repeal is essential to reforming many Illinois pensions in a way that protects rank-and-file workers with reasonable pensions.   It’s at the local level where the pension crisis is most acute and where the flexibility

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Open mic delivers priceless audio sample of Chicago area government culture – WP Original

  “Nobody here really gives a fuck.”   By: Mark Glennon*   If you’re not from around Chicago, get ready for a perfect audio lesson on what we’re dealing with here, tough language and all. You locals will laugh and cry at what’s too familiar.   Denis Lawlor is a security officer at a the water reclamation plant in southwest suburban Stickney.  He accidentally left the microphone open on his radio as he showed the ropes to a new employee, and the conversation was recorded. It’s a perfect depiction of the cultural problem at the root of what’s wrong in

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Rahm and Chicago Will Pivot or Perish – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Rahm Emmanuel will become Bruce Rauner on steroids — a relentlessly creative and radical turnaround artist — or he and Chicago are finished.   The jig is up. The national press has tuned in. They are starting to say outright that Chicago is heading towards bankruptcy, as Bloomberg did today, even if most of our local media and Chicago voters remain far behind the curve. Denial, delay, extend and pretend won’t fly anymore. The arithmetic of budgets and pensions for Chicago and its overlapping layers of government is now as indisputable as it is terrifying.  

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Get The Lead Out, Illinois Supreme Court: Decide the Pension Case – WP Original

  By: Mark  Glennon*   The United States Supreme Court issued its written opinion in Bush v. Gore just one day after it heard oral arguments on the case, which decided the outcome of the 2000 presidential election. The case had gone through three previous courts in less than five weeks, which included detailed factual issues about “hanging chads” and all the rest.   The Illinois Supreme Court held oral arguments this March 11 on the pension reform law. The lower court ruling on which the appeal was based was rendered on November 21, 2014. The law at issue was

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Hey Indiana, Thanks for Helping Illinois’ Economy – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Think what you want of the merits of Indiana’s new religious freedom law — that’s your business.  And never mind that 19 other states, including Illinois, have laws arguably similar. This much is looking very clear: Illinois just got an early Easter egg.   Illinois wins from Indiana’s new law because the business community is gushing scorn on it, fairly or not, with some businesses threatening boycotts. Stories about that are popping up so fast as I write this that there’s no need to offer examples.   Indiana recently dropped its “Illinoyed” campaign to lure Illinois

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Is Pension Reform Constitutional? Heck, yeah. Well, maybe, if we ask the right question – Guest Opinion

  Mitchell I. Serota, Ph.D., Fellow, Society of Actuaries   The Attorney General, though her Solicitor General, needs a more potent argument to convince the Illinois Supreme Court that pension legislation enacted in December 2013, which prospectively reduces defined benefit plan accrual rates for State employees, is constitutional. After last year’s judgment that even post-retirement medical benefits cannot be reduced once promised, the Supreme Court has indicated that the attempt at pension reform is not likely to pass Illinois Constitutional muster. Even though the pension legislation appears to be on the verge of being struck down, the Solicitor General is

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Prediction: Right-to-work will come to Illinois, locally — WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Here’s a flat-out prediction: Home rule units of government in Illinois will begin enacting right-to-work locally, and it doesn’t matter what Springfield does or does not do.   Over 200 cities and towns in Illinois have home rule status. Never mind the other aspects of what that means, and never mind what you think about right-to-work on the merits. Some or many home rule cities and towns will embrace right-to-work and their prospects for legally prevailing are high. The attraction will be especially strong in depressed areas on the edge of Illinois because we are

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Econ 101 for Progressives: Corporations Never Pay Any Taxes – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon* It’s not opinion or economic theory, but undeniable fact: Corporations don’t pay any taxes. They collect them. With the chorus on the left in Illinois growing ever louder to address income and wealth disparity by taxing corporations, that fact should be kept paramount, no matter what one’s politics. It make no more sense to deny that people, not corporations, ultimately pay corporate taxes than to deny that people pay taxes on houses, dogs or anything else. Exactly who ultimately pays corporate taxes is debated, and the answer can vary with the industry, but it’s some combination

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Bullseye: Why Gov. Rauner’s Order on Forced Union Dues is so Important for Illinois – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   If you follow the state and local fiscal crises, you know the bulk of our problems derive from 1) public pensions, and 2) for Illinois municipalities, unfunded mandates imposed by state government.   What’s the root cause of both? Excessive public union power that bought unaffordable promises.   For pensions, that story is fairly well accepted. Less known is that municipalities have little discretion to control most of their budgets, particularly on payroll. Municipalities commonly pay an additional 60% on top of salaries to cover pensions and other benefits because those are mandated by the state.

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WirePoints Adds Free Daily Email Digest of Select Stories, and a ‘Thank You’

By: Mark Glennon*   We’ve added the option of receiving a free daily email of all major stories we post. Just hit the green button on the right or on our home page and enter your email address. You’ll receive a confirmation email and the daily digest each morning.   Our readership continues to grow rapidly. We thank our readers for that, and for the growing volume of facts and tips you send. We cannot answer or write about all of them, but we do read each. We make no money from WirePoints and we receive no outside financial support.

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Monthly state revenue report shows continuing drop – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   The January report from the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability shows further deterioration in total state revenues. Decreased revenues from expiration of the tax increase are now kicking in, contributing to a 9.8% drop in total state revenue for January 2015 compared to January 2014. Total revenues were declining slightly before the tax cut, however. Total revenue for the fiscal year to date (the last seven months) is down 3.9% compared to the previous year. A drop in reimbursements from the Federal government contributed to the deterioration, though state tax revenue has also declined

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A Sadder Angle: Per Pupil Teacher Pension Debt in Illinois – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   A different and more heartbreaking way to look at the Illinois pension fiasco is contained in a report just issued by the National Council on Teacher Quality, Doing the Math on Teacher Pensions. They calculated unfunded teacher pension liabilities on a per pupil basis for each state. That’s appropriate because today’s students will be paying much of the bill, and it’s direct spending on their educations that is reduced by pension costs.   Illinois, no surprise, is worst in the nation, with $27,000 per pupil (page 78). For our neighbors, Wisconsin is $30; Indiana, $11,000; Iowa,

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Risk: The Illinois Pension Devil Seldom Acknowledged – WP Guest

  By: Tia Goss Sawhney*   In the Illinois public pension world risk is the devil seldom acknowledged, let alone carefully considered. Everyone not living under a rock knows that Illinois has a public pension plan problem – one that poses an immense financial challenge. The public pension plan challenge, however, is overwhelming when the massive risk, currently born by the state, is carefully considered.   Actuarial calculations for pension plans are based on assumptions with respect to events that will occur over the next several decades. An actuarial valuation requires assumptions with respect to future investment earnings, future mortality,

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New Study: Corruption and Pension Debt Go Hand-in-Hand – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   A research report published by Morningstar yesterday empirically validates a central criticism of public pension plans — that corruption and excessive public pension debt go hand-in-hand.   Morningstar’s Director of Policy & Research, Scott Cooley, ran a simple correlation test between historical levels of corruption and unfunded pension liabilities for all states. Sure enough, corrupt states tend to have larger unfunded pension liabilities. The correlation “easily meets the test for statistical significance,” concluded Cooley.   We’ve known from earlier studies that corruption is costly for taxpayers in many other ways, and Cooley describes some of

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Fiscal Fog Lingers Over Country Club Hills – WP Original

By: Nancy Mathieson and Mark Glennon*   Country Club Hills, a suburb of Chicago, seems intent on making itself the poster child for poor financial reporting. A reader recently alerted us to its plight, which indeed looks bad, but just how bad is hidden by the shoddiest municipal financial reporting we have seen.   The city appears to be living day-to-day, short of cash, because its City Council minutes from last month say it’s issuing payment vouchers, just as it did last year at this time. That sets off an alarm, but if you look for data similar to what

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Illinois emerging from denial; Chicago, other cities stuck in La La Land – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   It’s a lesson you learn fast doing insolvency work: The first step towards recovery is admission of  exactly how bad things are. It’s hard, as I learned doing that work as a lawyer. Emotions, outdated facts and ego get in the way. That’s why control of insolvent companies is usually taken away from those responsible and banks with bad loans usually take the initial loan officer off the account.   Illinois, at long last, may be accepting reality.   Help came last week from the Apocalypse Now report from the Institute of Government and Public Affairs

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The ‘Tier 2’ Pension Mess in Illinois – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon* Updated 1/16/15 As if Illinois public pensions don’t have enough problems, it’s becoming evermore apparent that the Tier 2 reforms enacted in 2010 are a mess. Some background: In 2010 Illinois created a second, lower level of pension beneficiaries for all state and local pensions, except for several Chicago pensions. Employees hired after 2010 became Tier 2 pension participants with far lower benefits. Tier 1 employees who started before that kept the same, more generous benefits they had before. The state’s unfunded pension liability, officially about $106 billion and in truth more like $250 billion, was

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Monthly state revenue growth weak again for Illinois – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   The Illinois Commission on Governmental Forecasting and Accountability released its December report. As has been the trend, state revenues are not increasing materially, and in aggregate are down for the year.   Comparing December 2014 to December 2013, state tax and fee receipts increased by $103 million or 3.2%. However, transfers to the state from the Federal government declined by $20 million, or about 7.9%. In total, including various refunds, state receipts increased by $72 million or 2.2% compared to December 2013.   For the entire 2015 fiscal year to date (July through December 2014),

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Expect No ‘Guidance’ on Pension Reform from Illinois Supreme Court – WP Original

Including healthcare liabilities, which the court recently decided are constitutionally protected along with pension benefits, the reform bill at issue would reduce unfunded liabilities by only 12%. By: Mark Glennon* Illinois needs a reminder about what kind of supreme court it has. Pundits and politicians from both parties, including Governor-elect Rauner, regularly express hope that if the Illinois Supreme court strikes down SB1, the pension reform bill from 2013, it at least will provide “guidance” on what kind of reform it would find acceptable. They apparently presume the court will act in a legally principled manner to help the other

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Yes! Rauner to Appoint Leslie Munger as Illinois Comptroller – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Governor-elect Rauner today announced he will appoint Leslie Munger of Lincolnshire to replace Judy Topinka as Illinois Comptroller.   Munger, new to politics, recently lost her race to incumbent Democrat Carol Sente for the Illinois House.   She is an exceptionally fine choice. We first noticed her early in her race against Sente. She struck us as a superstar in waiting, and we asked her to write this guest piece for us about the Illinois economy. As we wrote, she is “accomplished, articulate, smart, energetic, and fed up with Springfield.” She is socially moderate and fiscally

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Illinois Auditor General Report Kicks Off Another Year of Pension Madness and Underfunding – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Each year, the Illinois Auditor General hires its own actuary and submits a review of the actuarial reports for each of the five state pensions and certifies the amount taxpayers will have to contribute. The most recent Auditor General report was released this week, linked here.   As it did last year, the report says, in bold face for each pension, “the statutory mandated minimum funding requirements [which is what taxpayers pay] call for inadequate funding” and the funding method “does not meet generally accepted actuarial principles.”   That’s despite a $680 million increase in taxpayer

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Wisest and Dumbest Quotes on Illinois’ Economy and Government in 2014 – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Don’t expect many laughs in this because less-than-entertaining topics like pensions and budgets dominate in Illinois, but here are some of the notable quotes for the year about our economy and government:   Women can tell, so don’t bother lying: “When it comes to pension promises made, for years Illinois politicians have been like the guy who tells you, ‘I’ll call you in the morning.’ Neither is going to come through on their promise.” – Suzanne Devane, GOP 49th Ward Chicago Committeewoman.   Scary: “The call to action for these floundering entities will be, ‘Screw

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Ten fiscal and financial stories ignored by Illinois media in 2014 – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   One raison d’être for WirePoints is the Illinois media’s poor understanding of our fiscal and economic problems, which contributes to public ignorance about them. 2014 was more of the same.   Something’s wrong when a few of us writing on nights and weekends see these stories while they go otherwise unreported. Here are a ten of them, which, all humility aside, we emphasized. Many of these relate to public pensions, which is appropriate because they account for the lion’s share of Illinois’ crisis:   Suicidal property tax rates dooming some Illinois communities. When real, effective,

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DuPage County Looking to Save $80 million: Local Government Consolidation – Part 2 – WP Original

  By: Nancy Mathieson*   Dan Cronin, DuPage County Board Chairman, thinks consolidating and streamlining special purpose taxing bodies doesn’t have to do with the county absorbing their duties. The real issue he says is, “who really wants to take them on?”   DuPage is the second largest county in the state, and Cronin’s well-known streamlining efforts cover 900 employees in 24 agencies with budgets totaling $300 million. “Everyone wants the best in their towns,” he said in a recent interview. “The goal is to put aside individual wants, take initiative and collaborate.” A major motive behind DuPage’s efforts is

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Big Mistake: New Chicago Treasurer to Divert Pension Money to Economic Development – WP Original

  By: Mark Glennon*   Let’s hope sincerity isn’t among the attributes of Chicago’s new Treasurer, at least when it comes to his action plan for city investments.   Kurt Summers was sworn in today as Treasurer and released a 90-day action plan that he described in a luncheon address at the City Club of Chicago. His comments are reported in a Sun-Times article linked here and the plan is linked here.   His plan contains a number of elements, but first on his list, and the one he emphasized most, is pushing both city treasury money and pension funds

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“Welcome Home Illinois” – Buying Votes with Bad Policy? – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon* Was the “Welcome Home Illinois” Loan Program a noble effort to help first time home buyers or a vote buying scheme premised on bad policy?  Here are the facts. Decide for yourself. Governor Quinn announced the program in April 2014. It provided $7,500 to first time buyers to help cover the down payment, secured by a second mortgage on the home, and was administered by the IHDA — the Illinois Housing Development Authority. About $80 million was disbursed under the program to over 10,000 home buyers, according to the Tribune. Credit requirements were relaxed compared to conventional

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$224 Million Thanksgiving Eve Binge by Pat Quinn! – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon* Prepare to get sick. Late today, in nine separate press releases, Governor Pat Quinn announced spending totaling $223.7 million from the infamous “Jobs Now” program passed in 2009 that was justified as stimulus for the Illinois economy at the depth of the recession. Today’s press releases are linked here. While most of the spending under the program has been for legitimate capital projects, Jobs Now has been highly controversial from the start. It was not used as stimulus during the recession, and much of it was spent on projects widely regarded as pork. Earlier spending has included

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New Jersey Comes Clean on Pension Numbers; Will Illinois? – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   “Our state pensions are really only 33% funded, not 54% as we have been telling you.” That’s a pretty fair summary of what New Jersey officially said yesterday to its potential bond buyers. Adding in two large local pensions, the funded ratio dropped from 63% to 44%.   The statement was made in the form of a short, clear supplement to an Official Statement for a pending sale of New Jersey general obligation bonds. That supplement is linked here, and an article about it from Pensions & Investments is linked here. An Official Statement is the

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Malpractice in Journalism at NBC-5 – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Do Chicago journalists need to make stuff up to do a juicy story about political criminality, greed, and conflicts of interest? At NBC-5, apparently so.   Let’s start with a few whoppers by its reporter, Mark Anderson, in an article last week.  The story was about supposed violations by some investment managers of pay-to-play rules because of campaign contributions allegedly made to Rahm Emanuel and Bruce Rauner:   • Rahm, says Mr. Anderson, “breaks the law by financing his re-election campaign with contributions from firms” doing business with the city.   Fact: Nonsense. There’s nothing in

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Lame Illinois pension reform voided: Time for the real thing – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   A Sangamon County Circuit Court granted labor’s motion to invalidate SB1, Illinois’ pension reform law. The court’s order is linked here.   The court granted labor’s motion for a judgement on the pleadings, meaning that no trial is needed and the bill is void as a matter of law. No affirmative defenses are allowed, including the state’s “police powers” argument that the state is too broke to pay its bills. That complex defense, which the state had prepared in detail with the assistance of paid, expert economists, won’t be heard.   The ruling will be appealed,

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No Easy Task: Consolidating Illinois’ 8,466 Units of Government – WP Original

By: Nancy Mathieson*   Illinois is #1 on another list, this time comparing number of units of government to all other U.S. states. 6,963 is our number published by federal census records, which is actually lower than data provided by our own state records. Illinois Dept. of Revenue shows the state has 7,409 units of government and our own state Comptroller shows we have a whopping 8,466. How did we get here?   Illinois government units are either General Purpose, such as cities and counties, or Special Purpose which perform a specific function, such as school districts, parks, and sanitary

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A No-Cost Proposal to Bring Business and Revenue Into Illinois – WP Original

  “Copy the Delaware General Corporation Law into Illinois law. Just copy it.”   By: Mark Glennon*   If you’ve ever worked as an accountant, lawyer or paralegal doing corporate work, you already know this: Companies in Illinois and other states send a fortune to Delaware every year in filing fees, registered agent costs and related expenses.   It needn’t be so. Illinois can keep its money here and money from other states could just as well be coming to Illinois instead of Delaware.   The numbers are huge. Delaware is far and away the state of choice in which

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Pension Transparency: Reform Rauner Can Make Alone – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Public pension numbers are by far the murkiest part of Illinois’ fiscal crisis, and the biggest. Pension numbers have been deliberately obfuscated for years by politicians intent on hiding problems and by many actuaries hired by those politicians who are willing to play ball. They’ve succeeded.   Reform is long overdue, and Governor-elect Rauner can do it alone after he takes office.   Readers here, and anybody who follows public pensions closely, are well aware of the gap between the numbers reported by government and the real numbers calculated using better, more realistic methods, like new

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Bruce Rauner Defeats Public Unions, Media, Quinn – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Pat Quinn is rightfully listed last in that headline. He is, and always was, a buffoon.   Rauner dropped the attacks on public unions after the primary, but that was unilateral disarmament. They disgraced themselves with a filthy campaign.   It’s not as simple as liberal bias respecting the press, though that’s been overt in some cases. Incompetence and simple, old-fashioned muckraking were the larger problems, and they permeated coverage of Rauner from the start.   Rauner also had to defeat a somewhat different Rauner who emerged after the primary. He promised too much to too

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Entrepreneurs at the Polls

  By: Mark Glennon*   My daughter and friend with a hot chocolate stand outside polling place.   Expecting swat team from Quinn’s regulators to arrive any minute to shut them down.   Somehow, the Quinn signs seem to have blown over. What a shame.   *Mark Glennon is founder of WirePoints    

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A truly eerie pre-election evening in Illinois – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Such a strange and scary feeling in Illinois tonight. I’ve certainly never felt something like this before an election. It’s a sense of foreboding. As if a final assault from an enemy will come tomorrow over the walls protecting the village.  A warm breeze is blowing from the southwest now, but they say it will get harsh and cold again tomorrow.   Maybe it’s my perspective and who I’ve been talking to. I’m not much of a Republican. I just despise Cook County Democrats and I’m a financial realist. Lots of people I know have, like

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$111,280,000,000: The cost to employ Illinois’ jobless at the price/job state paid to lure Cronus – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   The State of Illinois on Monday proudly announced it had succeeded in bringing Cronus Chemical Company into the state to build a new fertilizer plant.   Cronus will get $52 million in various incentives from the state, according to the Associated Press and other sources.   When operational, the plant will employ 175 full-time people at the plant, and another 25 full-time office jobs will come to Chicago. Construction of the plant also will employ about 1,000, but those jobs are temporary and matter much less.   That’s $52 million for 200 permanent jobs comes to

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Bloody Tuesday for Illinois Taxpayers: Tens of millions to fund Quinn’s new jobs claims – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Not just another day in Illinois. The election is coming up, so open your wallets to fund the pork. Here’s what we got today:   Cronus will build a fertilizer plant downstate employing 175, and 25 jobs will be created in Chicago. Cost: $52 million for just 200 permanent jobs!   Coyote Logistic will supposedly add 500 jobs in Chicago. Cost: $2.5 million to taxpayers.   Amazon: 1,000 jobs. Cost: Not known yet, but likely huge. According to the Tribune, “Without knowing where Amazon intends to build in Illinois, it is impossible to tally the millions

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‘Et tu’ for state handouts, University of Chicago? – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   If there’s a phrase synonymous with the University of Chicago, it’s surely “free to choose.” That’s the title of an exceptionally influential book and television series from 1980 by Milton Friedman, the former U of C Nobel economist.   But don’t ask if our kids were free to choose whether they should help pay for U of C’s new incubator for entrepreneurs, the Chicago Innovation Exchange. Earlier this month, the State of Illinois announced a $1 million grant to it out of the infamous 2009 Jobs Now program, funded by bonds that we and our kids

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Updated: Slimiest campaign in Illinois is Rep. Carol Sente’s – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon* FURTHER UPDATE 11/4/14: Slime won. UPDATE: 10/24/14 The Chicago Tribune has the same view of Carol Sente in its endorsement today of Leslie Munger. Sente’s campaign is “digusting,” they said, and Munger is “smart as a whip.”   What do you do if you’re an Illinois House Democrat in a tough race and nobody is believing the usual fib that your opponent is a right wing nutjob? Why, you say she supports letting pedophiles work in schools — that’s if you are Carol Sente (D-Vernon Hills).   Ms. Sente recently pushed out a robocall twisting her opponent’s

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Illinois’ Most Pernicious Pension Lie – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   In the October 9 gubernatorial debate Governor Quinn said repeatedly that his administration has been making all appropriate payments into the state pensions. “I paid the proper amount in order to be actuarially sound,” Governor Quinn said.   Here is what the state’s own actuary said about that. It’s in the State’s Actuary Report (the “Report”) released in December 2013 by the Illinois Auditor General which incorporates materials from the state’s actuary, Cheiron. On the first one or two pages of each particular section of the Report, for all five of the state’s pensions, in bold

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‘Socialism in the air’ as Sharkey assumes Chicago Teachers Union leadership

By: Mark Glennon*   Should our kids be taught how to function in a market based economy by those who are lead by somebody who despises it?   With Karen Lewis absent from her role as President of the Chicago Teachers Union for health reasons, Vice President Jesse Sharkey has assumed its leadership.   There was “Socialism in the air” as the International Socialist Organization fondly described their annual conference in 2013 at which Mr. Sharkey spoke — “a long weekend of education, discussion and debate about radical politics and the struggle for social change.” And he was back again

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“Full” Pension Payments Aren’t Full in Illinois – WP Guest

By: Tia Goss Sawhney, DrPH, FSA, MAAA* In the October 9 gubernatorial debate between Governor Quinn and Bruce Rauner. Gov. Quinn said he deserves credit for making Illinois’ full pension payment each year he’s been governor — something his predecessors didn’t do.[i]  While Gov. Quinn deserves credit for making full pension payments when, in fact they have not always been made in the past, what exactly is a full pension payment? You may be surprised to learn that fiscal year 2013’s full payment of about $6.0 billion was nearly $3.5 billion less than what was required to simply hold the

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Attorney General Filings Summarized: Illinois is Screwed (and Nuts) – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon* To grasp the real scope of the Illinois pension catastrophe, think hard about what the state said about itself in court this month, which has gone all but unreported. The governor and others in Springfield may want to talk to the attorney general to get their story straight. Take the facts asserted by Illinois’ Attorney General in the pension litigation, add a few more facts that aren’t disputed, and it’s clear as day that the entire dialog in Illinois about pension reform is just plain nuts. This is great context to step back and review where the

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Latest monthly update on state revenue: Meh

By: Mark Glennon*   Every month, the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability updates its numbers on how much revenue the state is collecting for its general fund. Its report for September has some good and some bad news.   Compared to September of last year, total tax receipts are up 1.7%, thanks primarily to a 6.5% increase in income tax receipts. Same story for year-to-date totals, which are up 3% compared to last year.   The bad news is that transfers from other funds, particularly the Federal government, are off, more than offsetting the improvement in tax receipts.

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Chicago, that universal taxi hailing system you want to build is already built! – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Mayor Rahm Emanuel this week proposed a splendid idea for modernizing Chicago’s taxi hailing system and putting it on a level playing field with Uber and similar new services. His idea is to put out for bid the creation of a new dispatch system or app that would connect to all taxi fleets serving the city.   It’s such a splendid idea that it’s already built. A company named TripThru has been refining it over the last twelve months and is in the process of launching.   [Full disclosure: I have been doing some work with

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Economic suicide: New study of Chicago area effective property tax rates should leave you speechless – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon,* Updated 9/30/14   A study by the Civic Federation released yesterday computes true, effective property tax rates for Chicago area communities — the property tax rate as a percentage of actual market value.   Some rates honestly have already reached what is effectively nothing less than confiscation. You have to wonder when taxpayers in many of these places will start grabbing their pitchforks. Residential rates of three percent and commercial rates of six percent are becoming common, and some are over double that. Even Chicago’s rate, which is the lowest at 1.84%, is very high by national

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Worst Illinois pension commentary of the week – from Sen. Cullerton’s lawyer – Updated – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   UPDATE 9/29/14 — See note at end of piece regarding more detailed article my Mr. Madiar.   What a sensible headline: With Illinois pensions, what’s past is prologue. Instead of dwelling on the past we have to accept it and move on to solving the problem, right?   Yet Eric Madlar, Senate President John Cullerton’s chief counsel, goes on to write about just one thing — the history of underfunding. His big discovery is that underfunding goes all the way back to 1917. Not one word about how to solve the problem except for the last

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Mind-blowing: The stealth price paid by Illinois homeowners for bad government – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Home values in Illinois have lagged behind national averages in recent years, but the staggering total dollar cost to homeowners is never calculated.   Today, we’ll put some numbers on the aggregate amount forfeited by homeowners and discuss the cause. We will do that by comparing home values here to national averages over the last ten years. That is, how much worse off are homeowners here than if their homes had appreciated at the national average?   We start with Chicago because the data for it are more complete than for the rest of the state.

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The one question to ask every candidate for the Illinois House – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   In private, few Illinoisans of any ideology would disagree that House Speaker Michael Madigan is at the core of most everything rotten in Illinois. Yet voters and the press forget that the Speaker is elected anew by House members after their own elections, which are coming again in November.   Will you vote to re-elect Michael Madigan as Speaker of the House? That question may seem partisan and pointless but it’s not. It’s the first question every House candidate should be asked. Yes or no.   True, all Republicans will answer ‘no’ — House members vote

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Chicago has more retired police and firefighters than working – WP Original

By: Nancy Mathieson* Among the many reasons Chicago’s police and fire pensions are grossly underfunded are inadequate long-term planning, legislated benefit increases, pension holidays and overall kicking-the-can-down-the-road. Another factor working against Chicago is the imbalance between active and retired public safety officers. The New York City police pension received some unwelcome attention recently because the number of retirees it supports exceeds the number of active police on the streets. Little known fact: Chicago has the same upside-down relationship between its active and retired public safety departments. Policemen’s Annuity and Benefit Fund reports for 2013 show participants in the pension plan

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The lessons we should have learned when Pat Quinn was Treasurer – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   A wonderful little story from a former Illinois reporter illustrates so much we should have learned twenty years ago when Pat Quinn was Illinois Treasurer. From Vincent Duffy, now a prominent radio journalist in Michigan:   I was an enthusiastic rookie reporter at an Illinois News Broadcasters Association convention, sitting in a session about making your daily stories even better. I took one bit of advice from that session that I still use today because it often yields great results. That advice: Do the math. Illinois Treasurer Pat Quinn was traveling around the state touting his

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Teachers’ unions and Quinn double down on hypocrisy – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Last week, the main political action committee supporting Pat Quinn used by public unions, particularly teachers’ unions, signaled an ugly turning point.   The Illinois Freedom PAC released a piece titled Pay to Play Insiders Reward One of Their Own: Rauner.  It blasted Rauner because he had a fundraiser hosted by a former Illinois teachers pension trustee, Jim Bruner, who voted to invest in Rauner’s old firm, GTCR.   Bruner, according to the piece, “along with convicted political fixer Stu Levine voted to give Rauner’s GTCR $50 million in state pension business in 2003.” Levine was

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Meet the man who might re-elect Pat Quinn – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   If Bruce Rauner beats Pat Quinn in November it will be by a small margin — probably less than five percent. That’s been a widely accepted reality for a long time because Illinois is so heavily Democratic and Cook County Democratic turnout work, both legal and illegal, is so effective. That’s especially clear in light of the poll released today showing Quinn with an eleven point lead over Rauner.   And that poll shows Chad Grimm of the Libertarian Party getting five percent, probably all of which comes at Rauner’s expense.   Here’s what we know

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Busted: 45-year-old mortality data hid some pensions’ debt – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   If you were obligated to pay pensioners for their entire lives, would you estimate how much you would need using life expectancies from the 1960s for people born between 1914 and 1918?   Jean Lotus, a reporter at the Forest Park Review, just published a splendid article about a few Illinois municipalities recently doing just that. Outdated mortality tables are one way for governments to hide their pension problems from voters.   For more than a decade up to a couple years ago, according to the article, the actuary for Forest Park and some other cities,

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Monday morning quarterbacking Illinois pension bonds – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   A debate is emerging over whether Illinois’ pension obligation bonds, seen through the rear view mirror, were wise.   The idea behind pension obligation bonds is actually pretty simple. Instead of the state funding its pensions, it borrows from the public by issuing bonds and uses the borrowed money to fund the pension, with the pension then investing the proceeds. Whether that works out depends, at least in part, on whether interest the state pays on the borrowed money exceeds the returns the money earns on the investments the pension makes.   In 2003 Illinois issued

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A troubling report on state revenue – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Each month, the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability issues an update on how much revenue the State of Illinois is taking in. The August report, including fiscal year-to-date numbers, came out last week. (The state’s 2015 fiscal year started July 1).   Unfortunately, year-to-date total revenue numbers are actually down by 6% compared to the same period last year. (See page 7 of the full report, linked here.) Much of the decline is attributable to a decline in certain refunds to the state, according to the report, but it still remains troubling. Personal income tax

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Labor Day 2014: Face it, we’ve failed workers – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   It seems simple enough that we should have figured out how to get it long ago — an economy where people trade services and goods among each other rapidly enough and at high enough value that each individual can live in dignity. Yet, in Illinois and much of the world, that remains elusive, and it’s that central failure that’s key to the downward spiral of the middle class and sustained poverty.   There’s no need to review the facts about unemployment and low wages. Particularly in Illinois, those who claim we are coming back are asking

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Lame: Illinois’ new law criminalizing public record destruction – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Governor Quinn this week signed HB 4216 that criminalizes hiding or destroying public records by government officials.   Sort of.   It provides that, “Any person who knowingly, without lawful authority and with the intent to defraud any party, public officer, or entity, alters, destroys, defaces, removes, or conceals any public record commits a Class 4 felony.”   Nice idea, but the problem is that proving intent is always very difficult, and intent to “defraud” doesn’t really fit this issue. Fraud is basically deception — trying to trick somebody. Concealing or destroying records is not the

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Has the A.G. already blown Illinois’ best defense on pension reform? – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   If the argument made by a coalition of public pensions in their court filing last week is correct (or if pension-friendy judges simply want to rule that its’ correct), then the best and only plausible defense the state has for upholding pension reform will have been lost without ever having been presented. Then, it will be fairly be asked why that defense wasn’t asserted earlier, and whether the Attorney General’s office was out-maneuvered.   The issue is whether, strictly as matter of law, an exception can be made to the plain language of the Illinois Constitution

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Not even fiddling while Illinois burns – WP Original

  An escalating pension crisis, a wasted summer, and The March of Folly.   By: Mark Glennon*   The fate of Illinois will not be determined by most of this summer’s headline issues, important as some of them are. It will be determined by how the pension crisis is resolved — or not resolved. Hundreds of billions of dollars owed with very little available for payment have crippled all the myriad levels of government in Illinois, and some 200,000 public pensioners who either need or want their money (depending on their circumstances) will be facing cuts.   And the crisis

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Worst opinion piece of the week: Defending democracy requires keeping our 8,466 units of government

  By: Mark Glennon*   The Founders would surely be proud to know how long democracy has survived, but this would no doubt make them shit. (Even Ben Franklin used that word sometimes so don’t get upset.)   Efforts to consolidate Illinois’ ridiculously high number of governmental units, 8,466, are now making some folks nervous.   The nervous ones are those who control most of those units because they provide armies of loyal campaign workers and contributors dependent on their political bosses for their paychecks.   But how will they justify opposing the consolidation that’s so obviously needed? A leading

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Inadequate Actuarial Work meets Underfunded Pensions and Poor Journalism – WP Guest

  *Tia Goss Sawhney, DrPH, FSA, MAAA*   This article is in response to a recent article in the Forest Park Review, Police and fire pensions in the healthy zone, BGA report: Relative to neighbors, Forest Park funding above average [1] and the rebuttal article in WirePoints, Bad Pensions Meet Bad Journalism: An Example and a Lesson [2]. With one minor exception, discussed below, the WirePoints article presented a good analysis of the health of Forest Park’s pensions using the information readily available to the public. Unfortunately the information readily available to the public is limited with respect to both

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Bad Pensions Meet Bad Journalism: An Example and a Lesson – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Usually, Illinois’ 600-plus municipal pensions are ignored by local papers. Maybe that’s a blessing because, when they try, they often do readers a disservice.   This week the Forest Park Review ran a story headlined Police and Fire Pensions in the Healthy Zone. It provides a nice catalog of omissions, misunderstandings and outright errors that plague both the media’s and public’s understanding of the pension crisis. And it’s agreat place for point-by-point exposure of many reasons why the Illinois pension crisis is underestimated, even in towns reported to be healthy. Numbers I’ve used here about Forest

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$16 Billion to Fix VA Problems; in Illinois, Maybe Not – WP Original

By Nancy Mathieson   Last week Congress approved and the president signed into law a $16.3 Billion plan to ease health care delays at Veterans Affairs facilities amidst recent corruption scandals. However, according to Mike Peck, Superintendent of Lake County Veterans Assistance, a social services agency, “The money’s already there; it’s not a money problem, it’s a management problem.” The VA’s current budget is approximately $150 Billion. The behemoth VA has spent other large amounts in the past with little result. Four years ago, almost $500 million was spent to merge Dept. of Defense employee records with the VA’s systems;

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A Must-Read State Pension Analysis: The ARC and the Covenants

By: Mark Glennon*   A research report recently published by JP Morgan looks at pension obligations for Illinois and other states from several particularly useful and interesting perspectives. It’s the best attempt we’ve seen to quantify how much of state budgets would be required to fix their pensions. Highlights are below, but if you really want to roll up your sleeves on public pensions, read all 26 pages, linked here.   The primary author is Michael Cembalest, who is known for seeing through the Madoff fraud and refusing to do business with Madoff while his firm did. He now chairs

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Poll Shows Frightening Voter Blindness to Need for Illinois Pension Reform – WirePoints Original

By Mark Glennon*   There’s a stunner buried in that poll released today, more surprising than showing Lisa Madigan is at risk of losing her Attorney General race to challenger Paul Shimpf. Question 20 asked 800 likely Illinois voters if they “support pension reform that would include a reduction in benefits to public employees.”   70% said no!   A full copy of the poll is linked here. Had the question been worded differently the response no doubt would have varied somewhat, but that 70% number is so large that it’s hard to avoid being, well, flabbergasted.   The poll

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Insane implications of keeping two sets of books for pensions – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Should the solvency of the state and many of its cities, and their capacity to fund schools and other essential services, be determined largely by arcane accounting assumptions set by pension boards of trustees or elected officials choosing to ignore professionally established accounting principles?   Public pensions in Illinois effectively soon will be keeping two very different sets of books because new accounting rules take effect next week.   One set of books will comply with the new Governmental Accounting Standard Board rules and will go into official government financial statements. It will show a dramatically

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Oh, by the way, those troubled pensions now officially several times worse than you were told – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Reality is on its way. This month marks the date of full implementation of new accounting rules that will dramatically worsen reported pension problems.   Public pension critics have been screaming for years about phony pension numbers based on bullshit assumptions. The accounting profession took matters into its own hands. Going forward it will require government pension accounting comparable to what’s expected in the private sector. Specifically, the Governmental Accounting Standards Board has new rules known as GASB 67 and 68 that require, most notably, more realistic assumptions about how much pensions can expect to earn

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Insidious Unfunded Mandate in 2010 Pension Law Looms; Drastic Reactions Begin – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Mostly unnoticed in a 2010 pension bill is a state mandate that towns and cities start a payment plan, in whatever-it-takes yearly amounts, to gradually improve their police and fire pensions to 90% of the funding they need.   And it has teeth. Cities and towns must increase property taxes sufficiently to make the payments. If required pension contributions aren’t made, the state will automatically subtract the required contribution from the city or town share of sales and use taxes — a key piece of revenue cities and towns need. (A summary of that bill is

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Why Illinois voters should understand the Laffer Curve – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   “Please, don’t go to the top of the curve!” That was the warning from a Wharton School professor of finance, Robert Inman, in a recent presentation he made at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, speaking in general about tax rates for states and cities. What did he mean? Are Chicago and Illinois at the top of the curve? Those questions may seem obscure, but they’re key to our future. Voters don’t just need to asks whether more revenue should be raised, they need to ask whether that’s even achievable. And hang in there on this.

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Please, no taxpayer funded handouts to the tech startup sector – WP Original

Ubi est mea. -The motto Mike Royko assigned to how things work around here (“where’s mine?”) By: Mark Glennon Should Illinois taxpayers fund a grant for expansion of a co-working space for tech entrepreneurs, which was announced today? How about other subsidies to promote tech and entrepreneurship? And if public financing is sensible, shouldn’t we pay for it ourselves instead of borrowing it from our kids through bond sales? What happened to “ask not….”? My opinion, as one who has spent a large part of his adult life promoting that same entrepreneurial community, is that state money for such things

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Illinois ‘Jobs Now’ Plan from 2009 still shoveling you-know-what – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon* More “shovel ready” jobs? Governor Quinn announced Saturday $20 million in state grants to 47 museums across the state. Opinions may vary about the virtue of those grants, but here’s the thing: They were authorized in the “Jobs Now” bill Quinn signed five years ago, sold as a way to stimulate the economy at the height of the recession. Hundreds of millions of dollars on other projects have been announced over the last year under the same Jobs Now plan, and they are continuing. You’ll remember all the controversy about funding “shovel ready” jobs and stimulus back

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An Appalling Twitter Entry by the Illinois Education Association – WirePoints Original

By: Mark Glennon*   Most of you probably think kids should be taught that somebody’s death is no time to insult them, even an enemy. Not the Illinois Education Association, evidently.   Yesterday came news that an outspoken critic of teachers’ unions and public education, Jack Roeser, died. The IEA took that as an opportunity to tweet a link to its earlier article about him that says “he’s unencumbered by any feelings for children who attend public schools” and likened him to Mr. Burns on The Simpsons.   The tweet is below:   IEANEA @ieanea  ·  2h Anti public education

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The unfunded mandate in Chicago’s new pension law is worse than you think – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   “Guaranty provisions” have been highly controversial since municipal unions first began having them inserted into pension reform legislation in 2012. The new Chicago pension bill contains a real doozy that’s been mostly overlooked.   As you probably know, the new state law requires Chicago to make payments into two of its pensions, starting at $50 million next year and increasing each year to $250 million in year five. Thereafter, the city must make payments sufficient to bring the pensions’ assets to 90% of actuarial liabilities by 2055.   If the city doesn’t pay up, the pensions

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The headlines should have been “Bill OKs More Taxpayer Debt to Chicago Pensions” – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   How does this pension reform plan sound? “We’ll put billions of dollars into the pensions in distant years. Dunno where we we’ll get it.”   That’s not reform and not a plan — just unfunded debt — but that’s a pretty fair summary of the new bill many headlines are calling Chicago’s “pension reform plan.”   Yes, the bill awaiting Quinn’s signature includes meaningful reductions in pension benefits that will help. But here are the facts of overriding importance, and these are not in dispute:   – Even with those reductions and the new payment schedule

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Wasn’t Obamacare supposed to keep patients out of costly emergency rooms? – WP Original

By Nancy Mathieson*   Almost 50% of emergency room doctors polled said they’ve experienced more patients coming through their doors since January 1st, the day coverage took effect for millions under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) – Obamacare.   But wasn’t keeping people out of hospital E.R.’s one of the selling points of Obamacare? We’re now finding out that healthcare coverage is not the same as access, especially in downstate Illinois where doctors are already in short supply and psychiatric facilities are currently stretched to the max.   Dr. Tom Pliura is an emergency room doctor in central and southern Illinois,

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The wheels could come off in Illinois sooner than expected – WP Original

“How did you go bankrupt?” Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” ― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises   By: Mark Glennon*   How will rating agencies, bond investors, and Illinois employers react when the legislative session ends this Saturday? Here’s what they will be seeing, by all indications to date:   -A slopped-together state budget that even supporters admit is full of borrowing, accounting gimmicks and can-kicking. -A Cook County pension bill that provides no clue how the county will meet financial commitments it contains, and no indication that it would help much. -Nothing on the rapidly approaching train wreck

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Onward and Upward: We’re cranking it up at WirePoints and making some changes

By: Mark Glennon*   Our readership continues to grow nicely here at WirePoints, and you will be noticing the following changes:   Nancy Mathieson joining as Contributing Editor. Nancy has a 30-year career in business, securities regulation and public policy. She was formerly a Director of Market Surveillance at the New York Stock Exchange, where she managed a professional staff in investigating for securities trading violations. Most recently, Nancy was Operations Director at Truth in Accounting, a Chicago non-profit whose mission is to promote transparency in government financial reporting. Nancy was an officer of the National Investor Relations Institute (NIRI)

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They’re toast: The impossible fiscal situation of many Illinois cities and villages – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon* Why didn’t you tell us? How could you have done this to us? That’s the kind cry we’ll soon hear from both taxpayers and retirees in many local Illinois police and fire pensions when they finally realize how little of their pensions will be paid. Officials and pensioners’ unions haven’t leveled with them, whether because of cowardice or failure to look at plain math. Just what solution is even conceivable for cities like Springfield, Joliet, Rockford and many others that have only 30% or 40% of their police and fire pensions funded? Chicago at least can pretend

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Obamacare in Illinois: by the numbers – WP Original

By: Nancy R. Mathieson*   The 2014 enrollment period for Obamacare health insurance was Oct. 1, 2013 to April 19, 2014. Open-enrollment for 2015 begins November 15th. Here’s a recap for Illinois:   Who signed up? The federal government reports more than 217,000 people in Illinois enrolled, with no differentiation made between those who bought and those who bought and paid. Of that total, 104,000 or nearly half enrolled between March 1st and April 19th. A new McKinsey survey reports a large majority of people signing up in the U.S. are now paying for their coverage (83%). The survey also

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The math is clear: Pat Quinn stole the 2010 election using taxpayer money – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon Can a candidate for governor pick up 32,000 votes by spending $50 million? Easily. Anywhere. That’s over $1,500 per vote. In Chicago, you could get Mrs. O’Leary’s cow elected at that rate.   Pat Quinn won the 2010 election for governor by just 32,000 votes, a margin of less than one percent. He spent $54 million on the “anti’violence” program that’s now subject to multiple investigations and widely accepted to have been little more than a vote buying and voter turnout fund. Was $54 million enough to get those 32,000 votes that made the difference? Of course

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Forget the false choice between defined benefit and 401(k) style plans for public pensions: A hybrid is better – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon A false choice dominates much of the public pension reform debate. Public pensions today are mostly “defined benefit plans.” They promise retirees certain amounts hell or high water (in theory) — irrespective of returns on the pension’s underlying investments or the economy in general. Replacing them with something like the 401(k) plans common in the private sector is widely discussed. With those plans, the employees pick their investments and returns are uncertain.   A far preferable alternative to either is a hybrid plan. Some legislators are starting to talk up hybrids behind the scenes. Getting serious about

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Keeping our Families Together – WP Original

  By: Leslie Munger*   As parents, we spend our lives doing everything we can to help our children be successful – in sports, extracurricular activities, and most importantly, in school. Raising children is all consuming, from the day they are born until you send them off to college. And then, in the blink of an eye, college is over and they’re graduating and beginning their careers.   Our older son graduated last May from the University of Illinois with his B.S. in Mechanical Engineering. I was looking forward to him starting his career somewhere in the Chicago area and

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The ultimate issue for broke Illinois cities surfaces: What kind of insolvency proceeding will the state allow? – WP Original

  April 16, 2014 By: Mark Glennon* If Springfield lawmakers eventually answer this right, an orderly, fair, though difficult proceeding would be available to desperate Illinois cities, but getting it wrong would be catastrophic: What form of insolvency proceeding will Illinois allow for its broke cities? Some of the folks who matter aren’t just facing up to the ugly financial math but are raising that key question, which ultimately will drive dozens of issues critical to the future of many Illinois cities, perhaps including Chicago. An insolvency proceeding of some kind that modifies debts and contracts will be needed for

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The teachers union ‘enemies list’ scandal – more deceit, more facts – WP Original

March 17, 2014 By: Mark Glennon Last week we wrote about the liability issues raised by the “enemies list,” as Bloomberg called it, whereby the American Federation of Teachers seeks to muzzle financial firms and people engaged in First Amendment protected speech the union doesn’t like. The AFT recently expanded the list to target supporters of the ‘Illinois is Broke’ campaign, including Aon Corp and Chicago’s GTCR.Pension & Investments, a sister publication of Crain’s, has a further story today in which they say AFT President Randi Weingarten says “the union is not suggesting action be taken by boards of trustees.”

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Program by Teachers Union to Crush Political Activity on Pensions Expands in Illinois; Multiple Questions of Impropriety and Illegality Arise – Updated – WP Original

March 15, 2014 By: Mark Glennon Conduct taken by a major teachers’ union should shock the conscience of anybody concerned about government abuse and respect for rights of free expression and association. The conduct raises serious questions about violations of constitutional rights, statutory rights and breach of fiduciary duties. The program, conducted by the American Federation of Teachers, has now expanded its list of targeted people and groups in Illinois. Here are the facts, as reported yesterday in stories linked here from Bloomberg and Pensions & Investments, earlier stories on the topic from P&I on 5/13/23 and 4/29/13, and taken

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The ‘scarlet letter’ tax Illinois pays for its dirty reputation – WP Original

Updated March 13, 2013 By: Mark Glennon Illinois, we already knew, pays a penalty rate to borrow money because of its bad credit rating, which taxpayers ultimately bear. What we didn’t know is that, beyond that credit penalty, we pay a still higher rate because of our dirty reputation. An analysis by the Fiscal Futures Project at the University of Illinois’ Institute of Government and Public Affairs found that even after controlling for different credit ratings and fiscal, economic and financial factors between Illinois and other states that sold  bonds between 2005 and 2010, the yields on Illinois bonds were

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In Illinois Senate, Leadership in Both Parties Must Finally Acknowledge Full Severity of Pension Crisis – WP Original

March 6, 2014 By: Mark Glennon Springfield is taking its time about it, but soon, hopefully, it will legislate reforms of city and local pensions, including Chicago’s, which are in desperate shape. If real reform is to happen, both President John Cullerton, head Democrat in the Illinois Senate, and Minority Leader Christine Radogno, chief of the Senate Republicans, need to face up to just how bad things are.Let’s first be clear. Christine Radogno is no John Cullerton, and Radogno’s failure to see pension realities certainly doesn’t imply equivalence with Cullerton. Cullerton is a walking composite of the worst legislators who

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UPDATED: Unions pour more money into phony ‘Republican’ PAC running negative ads – WP Original

March 5, 2014 By: Mark Glennon Over the past two days five labor unions contributed an additional $485,000 to the “Republican Fund for Progress and Jobs,” which is using the money to fund the ad campaign against Bruce Rauner, Republican candidate for governor. Details are linked here.The fund is not Republican. Last month the Illinois Republican Party, by unanimous vote of its State Central Committee, issued a formal cease and desist  against the group, demanding that it stop using the word “Republican” and Republican trademarks.  The fund is also supported by the Democratic Governors Association, which the Illinois Republican Party

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Why is Bruce Rauner Running for Governor? Some Telling Comments from 2003

March 4, 2013 By: Mark Glennon Rich Miller at CapitolFax dug up some telling comments by Bruce Rauner from nine years ago. This speaks to the question of why he’s running; why a gazillionaire would want to run for office in Illinois:  Ego? Power? More money?  I’ve already chimed in my support for Rauner, but I think this is a useful addition because I believe it’s an accurate reflection of what he’s about. From Miller’s piece today: [T]ake a look at this December, 2003 interview of Rauner by former Sun-Times columnist Dave Lundy. No link because it’s behind their archives

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Social Entrepreneurship Done Right: Ted Gonder and Moneythink Tackle Financial Illiteracy – WP Original

February 21, 2014 By: Mark Glennon* Financial illiteracy, it’s pretty safe to say, is at the root of many of our problems: over-leveraged homeowners, voter ignorance about government fiscal problems, the retirement planning crisis, susceptibility to predatory lending…the list is long. Ted Gonder, a Chicago social entrepreneur, is taking on the challenge at the high school level. A not-for-profit venture that he co-founded, Moneythink, runs financial literacy programs for urban youth. I saw Ted do his thing recently in front of a few hundred kids during a half-day school session before the start of a holiday break. That’s the kind

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Colossal Deceit and Hypocrisy in Illinois Public Union Ad Campaign Against Rauner – WP Original

  “Would Cinda Klickna and her teachers’ union like their pension investment in Bruce Rauner’s firm rescinded, profits disgorged, and their vote for it annulled, since they think it’s so tainted? Fat chance.”   February 16, 2014 By: Mark Glennon Bruce Rauner is a sleazy profiteer who squeezed public pensions to make his fortune — that’s what the public unions are telling us in their $2 million media campaign underway now. In one case they often cite, GTCR, Rauner’s old firm that made him rich, got a big investment from the Illinois teachers’ pension thanks, they say, to a now-notorious

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Can Large Investors Shore Up the Chicagoland Housing Market? – WP Guest Article

February 14, 2014 By:  Nancy R. Mathieson In December, the Chicago Tribune ran a feature article about large companies buying thousands of local single-family homes to rehab for renters.  “Wall Street Moving in on American Dream” reported on large-scale investors becoming landlords for thousands of local families who can’t come up with the deposits or credit ratings needed to buy their own homes. Cook and Will Counties are popular destinations for these investors.  During the first six months of 2013, eight companies bought a total of 863 homes in suburban Cook County. In Will County, these same companies bought 480

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Union, Democrat funded campaign to commandeer Republican primary launches: Just imagine if situation were reversed – WP Original

February 12, 2013 By: Mark Glennon Suppose right wing groups started pouring big dollars into an Illinois Democratic primary race through PACs they passed off as “Democratic,” intending to knock out the guy they feared most before he got to the general election. And suppose the Republican Governors Association helped fund that effort. Screams about deceitful subversion of the primary would be deafening — and those screams would be justified. That’s the campaign unions and the Democratic Governors Association launched this week, except that it’s in the Republican primary to defeat Bruce Rauner, and that and those screams may be

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Rich = Bad: Kirk Dillard’s new ads make unequivocal attack on wealth – WP Original

February 6, 2013 By: Mark Glennon Kirk Dillard, Republican candidate for Illinois governor, just released some new ads against opponent Bruce Rauner, a couple of which equate wealth with evil as unequivocally as anything that came out of Occupy Wall Street. The two ads are linked here:               They don’t even mention Dillard’s own name, their sole point being that Rauner’s wealth makes him hypocritical, uncaring and unfit for office.   If there’s a Democrat somewhere in the country engaging in class warfare this overtly I don’t know who it is. Good thing Americans weren’t thinking like Dillard

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Chicago can be the epicenter of an American energy revolution: Steve Forbes and Rahm Emanuel

January 15, 2013 By: Mark Glennon CNBC ran a rather extraordinary interview this morning with two guys who aren’t exactly kindred spirits, Rahm Emanuel and Steve Forbes, agreeing that Chicago can be the epicenter of the energy production revolution underway in America.   Emanuel: “Washington is not talking about this…. The biggest revolution equal to the Internet is the energy independence in the United States.”   Forbes: “Midamerica is going to have a real renaissance and Chicago is going to be the center of it.   They are both dead right. This is the dawn of a new age for

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Econ 101 on the minimum wage debate in Illinois – WP Original

January 8, 2013 By: Mark Glennon   Last week Bloomberg ran a wonderful article titled ‘Someone please help the New York Times with Econ 101.‘ It should have been directed it to us in Illinois, too.   It summarizes the evidence that, if you increase the minimum wage, you help those who keep their jobs but you also cause others to lose theirs. As a then-liberal-leaning Econ student long ago, it seemed clear to me that it was pretty much a wash and we had to find better ways to help the poor. The evidence and research since then are

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Brain Freeze? Illinois Spending Billions on Global Warming – WP Original

  January 6, 2013 By: Mark Glennon   If you’ve been outside today and need something to steam you up, this should work: Illinois is spending untold billions — yes, billions — of dollars every year to cool the climate.  It’s “untold billions” because, while it’s clearly in the billions, nobody bothers to measure the cost of many governmental programs to cool climate by lowering carbon emissions.   The long list of Illinois programs to fight global warming is below. Among them is the Illinois ‘25% by 2025’ policy forcing utilities into supplying 25% of their energy from renewable sources

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Illinois, forget the usual resolutions: 2014 is about duty – WP Original

  January 1, 2014 By: Mark Glennon   Forget the usual New Years resolutions, important as some of them may be. A generational call of responsibility far more important is upon every one of us in Illinois in 2014. This is about the fundamental obligations we owe back to society and core duties of citizenship.   You and I will answer for whether those who broke Chicago and Illinois — financially, reputationally, and morally — will stay in power. Each of us has an elemental duty to do all we can to make 2014, at long, long last, the year

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Unions Looking to Subvert Republican Primary to Stop Bruce Rauner – WP Original

December 22, 2013  By: Mark Glennon   “I still can’t believe that no other media outlet has yet picked up on the fact that the unions and others are about to jump into the GOP primary against Rauner.” That’s from influential political reporter Rich Miller yesterday. Union bulletin boards are alive with discussion about the idea, with the Illinois Education Association — a teachers’ union — apparently at the forefront of the possible effort.   Unions are freaked out that Bruce Rauner, an outspoken critic of public unions, has taken the clear lead in the Republican race for governor. Yesterday,

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Unintended Consequences: Illinois doctors and patients face new challenges under Affordable Care Act – Guest Article

  December 11, 2013 By:  Nancy R. Mathieson* You may be following the story of South Carolina cancer patient Bill Elliott, whose insurance was recently cancelled as his carrier considered his cancer “beyond a catastrophic pre-existing condition.” Elliott was given one choice, a higher premium plan, however, he chose instead to pay the ACA fine and “let nature take its course.”  After hearing his story, Chicago insurance broker C. Steven Tucker contacted Elliott and advised him about the1997 Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPPA) 104-191 Section 2742.  This federal Act requires guaranteed renewability of individual health insurance coverage unless

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Pension bill passes: now we’ll find out what’s in it. Here’s what we know so far – WP Original

  December 3, 2013 By: Mark Glennon   The pension bill has passed both houses and will be signed by Governor Quinn.   Savings from the bill will be material but hardly “comprehensive” or “sweeping” as many have claimed, eliminating at the most 20% of the official $100 billion unfunded pension liability, and that’s undisputed. Expect that percentage to turn out much lower. Proponents focus on claims the bill will save $160 billion over thirty years, which the media are reporting as fact. It’s not, and it’s the wrong way to measure the impact. Remember that the total funded and

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Wow! Prominent IL Democrat in Smackdown Match with Leading Union Activist – WP Original

December 1, 2013 By: Mark Glennon   Professional wrestling was never this entertaining: a credentialed Illinois Democrat in a nasty smackdown with a leading union guy.   In one corner, David Ormsby: longtime political strategist and writer. Not exactly my kind of guy because most of his earlier career was working for the Cook County pols like Madigan and Daley who bankrupted Illinois and Chicago.   In the other corner, Fred Klonsky: union activist with a leading blog in the state for public employees. He’s basically a living caricature of an ugly stereotype of a union guy. A near-Communist, he’s

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More evidence big taxpayers are fleeing Illinois – WP Original

November 7, 2013 By: Mark Glennon Spend some time collecting signatures on petitions in high income areas like Kenilworth, Lake Forest or Winnetka to put candidates on the ballot for Illinois elections and you’ll too often hear something like this: “Sorry, I’ve changed my residence out of state,” or “I vote in Florida now.” Still more people joke about it, saying they intend to change their legal residence soon. I’ve heard it myself collecting signatures in those places and repeatedly from volunteers working with me on a petition drive. For the very wealthy — folks with second or third homes

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New U of I Study: Outlook bleak for state, tax increases didn’t solve much – WP Original

October 29, 2013 By Mark Glennon   The Fiscal Futures Project is sponsored by the Institute for Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois and sponsored by the MacArthur Foundation. It recently issued three new research papers looking at the income tax increases of 2011 and subsequent effects on Illinois’ budget when they sunset in 2015, linked here.   Among the conclusions: — Illinois’ economy has been in worse condition than our Midwestern peers since January 2011. This can be attributed to many factors, including the income tax increase. — “Even if the 2011 tax increases are made

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New study totals city pension burdens as percent of their revenue: Chicago stinks

October 28, 2013 by Mark Glennon   The Center for State and Local Government Excellence is a non-partisan, non-profit research organization. They recently completed a comprehensive study measuring city pension burdens in a new way. They added all required pension contributions for a given city and compared the total to the city’s total tax revenue. This approach makes sense, though it may be too kind to cities with relatively high tax collections like Chicago, making them look better. The average total pension burden for 173 cities in the study is 7.9% of revenue, but variations are high. The bottom 20%

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Smash the Old Molds: Lt. Governor Candidate Evelyn Sanguinetti Will Surprise When You Hear Her – WP Original

October 13, 2013   Today I heard an important newcomer to Illinois politics speak: Evelyn Sanguinetti, candidate for lieutenant governor and Bruce Rauner’s running mate. These are my impressions of how she comes across live and my take on reaction from the roughly 40 people she spoke to.   For some background, throw out the usual correlations and cross tabs for this one. This is a female, Hispanic, Republican who’s not afraid to talk about the need for safety net programs. Her mother was a refugee from Castro’s Cuba who had her at age 15. She grew up in poverty

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Corporate relocation incentives: A problem with no solution – WP Original

By: Mark Glennon*   October 5, 2013   State governments’ love-hate view of relocation incentives ends up with love winning, and there’s no clear way to change that.   Two Illinois legislative leaders put this question directly to a group of prominent investment professionals at a lunch meeting I sat in on a couple years ago: “How can we stop these demands for tax breaks from companies threatening to leave the state?”  Dead silence. Not one had an answer or even a thought. The legislators were Democrats, the investors were mostly financial conservatives, but none liked what was happening. Nor

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Where it really matters, Chicago’s unfunded pension liability per household is a whopping $900,000 – WP Original

  September 27, 2013 If you follow the pension crisis you’re probably especially alarmed by the per-person estimates of unfunded pension liabilities.  What’s overlooked, however, is that most Chicagoans can’t contribute meaningfully to paying down that debt, so the true numbers for those who would have to pay are far, far higher. Per capita income in Chicago is only $28,000, or about $48,000 per household. Almost half of Chicagoans are in or near official poverty. Will they be asked to pay up? Could they if they were asked?  No, so let’s look at per capita obligations where they really apply

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Illinois politicians who hauled in the most union PAC money, 2002 – 2012

  September 14, 2013   Listed below are the 20 biggest recipients in Illinois state government from 2002 to 2012 of campaign contributions from major union political action committees. The numbers are from Followthemoney.org and ILReference.com, and the compilation was recently published by the Illinois Policy Institute in The Labor Book. They analyzed the 100 largest recipients who collected in total about $25 millions from the PACs. PAC campaign contributions aren’t the only source of union money influence over government, but they do provide a pretty good barometer of where unions buy influence.   Democrats and the usual suspects dominate,

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The Real Moral of the $670,000 Capitol Doors – WP Original

  September 11, 2013 “What dumb ass signed off on this?”  If the the state was like a corporation its CEO would have that email in his face from everybody on his board of directors the morning after the papers first ran the story that $670,000 was spent on new capitol building doors. In a properly run larger company the CEO would probably answer something like,  “I’ll find out and get back to you within the hour.” And when that answer came back the board would likely get to the really important question: “And what dumb ass authorized him?”  

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Everything you need to know about actuarial standards in public pensions — in five short points

  August 30, 2013   Just about all numbers you see reported on public pensions come from actuarial consultants hired by the government, whose work accords with “industry convention.”  That’s very comforting to most taxpayers and reporters, lawmakers learned long ago. John Bury, an actuary and critic of his industry, says “industry convention” for public plan actuaries consists of five rules:   1. Keep contributions low.   2. Make valuation reports difficult to understand.   3. Keep contributions low.   4. Get paid as much as possible.   5. Keep contributions low.   Elegantly simple, no?   Keeping contributions low

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Parsing through some good news for Illinois — it’s tricky: WirePoints Original

  All’s not lost in Illinois. Let’s pull together a few recent articles on the good stuff — carefully. First, downtown Chicago is thriving. In a detailed, thoughtful piece in Crain’s, Greg Hinz recently called Chicago’s downtown the “hottest urban area in the U.S.,” and he backs it up with facts. Crain’s and Mr. Hinz often understate our problems, but downtown’s prosperity is real, albeit nuanced with paradox. Downtown Chicago is the top beneficiary of a genuine megatrend –- reversal of movement to the suburbs. Those white bread suburbs we built for a generation after WWII aren’t cutting it for

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Government workers, Quinn have deal for new contract – just don’t ask what it is – WirePoints Original

Congratulations, Illinois. Governor Quinn and AFSCME, the union representing some 35,000 state workers, announced they have reached a deal for a new contract. Just don’t ask what the deal is or how much it will cost us. Neither AFSCME or Quinn are saying, and no terms are released. The contract must be ratified by AFSCME workers and details will come out as part of that process, but in the meantime you’ll just have to trust our governor. That’s the same governor who got elected promising a big pay raise to those workers just before the election. AFSCME says it’s “very

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Only a devastating shock will get real action on Illinois pensions, but what? – WirePoints Original

  “I think it’s going to reach a point where there’s either social disorder or bankruptcy before people will act.” That’s what Richard Ravich said about Illinois. He led the New York Metropolitan Transit Authority during that city’s financial crisis of the mid-1970s and co-authored a the recent bipartisan State Budget Crisis Task Force report along with former Fed chief Paul Volker. You already know if you’re a regular here that our financial plight is much more desperate than commonly understood and nobody in Springfield is even discussing reforms as big as we need. If you’re new here please see

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How insolvency is supposed to be managed versus how Illinois is managing it – WirePoints Original

Let’s look at where the Illinois fiscal crisis now stands through the lens of how insolvencies are supposed to be handled. Some basic principles about how to give a broke operation a clean start are below – and giving the state a clean start is what we need. I put those principles in bold followed by how we are doing on them: • List your liabilities honestly and accurately. Illinois does the opposite, vastly understating the scope of its problems. The primary problem – unfunded pension liability – is at least twice as large as the state says, but exactly

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Five reasons why defined benefit pension plans are poison and must be replaced ASAP – WirePoints Original

The pensions at the center of the storm for Illinois and its localities are “defined benefit” plans — pensioners receive fixed amounts each month for the rest of their lives. Those amounts are usually subject to automatic annual increases or cost of living adjustments. Here are five reasons why defined benefit plans are hopelessly flawed and should be scrapped and replaced as rapidly as fairness and the law allow: • They are irrational at their core. They promise to pay out a fixed stream of income but to meet that promise they must invest in long term, variable, risky assets

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Great summary of the Illinois pension crisis

You may or may not like libertarian politics, but if you want hard facts on the Illinois fiscal crisis you’d be wise to follow the research of the Illinois Policy Institute, a libertarian think tank. Yesterday they published this great snapshot summarizing how bad the real numbers are. WirePoints recently collected some of the research from outside the state saying essentially the same thing — that the official numbers used by the state are off by at least 100% — the pension hole is twice as large as Springfield is telling us. Remember that this summary and almost all the

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Outside experts size up Illinois pension mess: twice as big as the state admits — WirePoints Original

  “A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves.” Edward. R. Murrow December 9, 2012, Updated January 9, 2012 A primary reason for the fiscal calamity in Illinois is sheepish acceptance of the state’s narrative about pensions. The official unfunded liability of the five state guarantied pension funds — the key number in the narrative — is $96 billion, a number repeated endlessly and mindlessly by most of the media and some “pension reform” groups. It’s nonsense.  [Update:  The first two of the sources below lump in local unfunded pension liabilities with the state’s.  However, the Illinois Policy

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Illinois’ body parts likely to be divided among pensions and bondholders — WirePoints Original

December 6, 2012 Legislators in Springfield and public worker unions have said regularly that any pension reform measure should include a guaranty mechanism assuring that the state’s contributions to pensions actually get made.  The pension reform proposal put forth today by a group of legislators headed by Senator Nekritz includes such a provision to intercept state cash and divert it to pensions.  Details are sketchy, but the mechanism will probably be in the form of legislation that automatically appropriates the money and establishes a payment priority over other state obligations (other than bonds, discussed below), all of which would be

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Illinois teachers’ pension responds: says their assumptions are fine

    In the attached letter to the Wall Street Journal, the head of the Illinois Teachers Retirement System, the state’s largest pension fund, responds an editorial in that paper.  The Wall Street Journal had criticized the pension’s assumption that it can make 8% on its invested assets.  That assumption is key to determining the size of the pension’s unfunded liability.   The Wall Street Journal is one of many voices to say that 8% is far too optimistic.  More importantly, new accounting standards and the rating agencies that cover state obligations will soon force pensions like this to assume

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WirePoints Original: Why Illinois lawmakers can’t possibly set taxes rationally

  Does the additional revenue that comes from a tax increase get cancelled out, in whole or in part, because taxpayers — especially high earners — leave or change their residence?   Astonishingly, nobody in Illinois government has attempted to answer these questions and the state has no data, no study, no clue.   I’ve asked several legislators from both parties and searched myself, but nothing is there.   The anecdotal evidence says the problem is severe.  Examples are reported publicly fairly often.  Tax planners say changes of claimed residency are now shooting up.  A partner at a major Chicago law

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Does Illinois violate its own budget and accounting laws? The state itself says yes — WirePoints Original

By: Mark Glennon*   One reason why Illinois is a fiscal wreck is that the state’s budget and accounting are muck, and they are prepared — according to the state itself — in open violation of state law.   The governor and the general assembly are constitutionally required to prepare an annual budget.  A statute, the State Budget Law, requires that the budget for the general revenue fund and other key funds be prepared in accordance with “generally accepted accounting principles for governments” and lists other specific accounting requirements designed to allow for a reasonable comparison of projected revenues to

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Just who is endangering Illinois’ municipal pensioners? WirePoints Original

  We pension pessimists are actually pension villains — the hardball folks happy to cut pensions, starve retired teachers, steal from cops, and so on. We villains overstate pension shortfalls so government will cut them off.  Right?   Consider instead if it might be the deniers — those who say the pension and fiscal crises are manageable, mostly through tax increases — who are really endangering pensions of rank and file municipal workers.   Illinois was broke long before the “Illinois is Broke” campaign began.  Insolvency was apparent to anybody half good with numbers who took some time to look

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Cost of fiscal storm coming to Illinois will dwarf damages from Sandy and Katrina

By: Mark Glennon* Illinois has yet to come to grips with the enormity of the catastrophe it faces faces from its fiscal mess. Comparison to devastating storms may help. Let’s start with the high end of current damage estimates for Sandy — about $50 Billion, as detailed recently in the Washington Post, using data from the National Hurricane Center.  Katrina was worse when it hit New Orleans and the Gulf Coast in 2005 — $108 Billion, according to that same data, which would be about $128 Billion in today’s dollars.  Combined, the two storms total $178 Billion. What does the

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Indiana taxpayers get $360 Million in tax credits from surplus while Illinois wallows in deficits – WirePoints Original

  The difference in performance between Indiana and Illinois governments is truly difficult to grasp. Indiana has announced a $360 Million surplus that will allow it to give a credit of $111 to all taxpayers in the state.  Illinois faces never-ending tax increases and accumulated bills over $200 Billion. Illinois blames the recession. Illinois says it provides superior services.  Can anybody still say such things with a straight face? When Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels visited Chicago two years ago promoting his state, I asked him myself what he attributed the differences in Illinois’ and Indiana’s fiscal performance to.  Without hesitation,

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WirePoints Original: If Illinois’ business climate is so bad, why are startups here flourishing?

Startups are thriving in Illinois and entrepreneurs in Chicago’s tech community now have a dazzling ecosystem envied by most other places in the country.  Doesn’t that prove things aren’t so bad here?  Shouldn’t Illinois be bragging about that proof? No,  entrepreneurship thrives in a down local economy and an otherwise hostile business environment for many reasons. Those reasons go beyond the obvious reality that many talented and experienced people cannot find good jobs.  Yes, those people often start new ventures and they comprise a nice labor pool that startups can tap on the cheap. But there are many other reasons.

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Just how far left are some Chicago teachers? WirePoints Original – Updated 11-29-12

Slapping labels like “commie” or “socialist” on liberals is badly overdone, but plenty of Chicago teachers apparently wouldn’t mind. The Midwest Marxism Conference was held November 10 at Northwestern University and Chicago teachers were well represented. “The event was teeming with teachers who spoke about the new found bond” between Socialism and teachers’ unions according to reports, and Chicago teachers were on the stage. Chicago Teachers Union VP Jesse Sharkey spoke at one breakout session and: Becca Barnes, a Chicago Teachers Union teacher and organizer with Chicago Socialists, proclaimed at the beginning of the conference that ‘the struggle here in

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